Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 121129

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
629 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Temperatures will be the primary forecast concern over the next
few days, with some increase in fire danger by Wednesday. No
precipitation is expected through Wednesday.

System that affected the area Saturday night into Sunday morning
continued to move off to the southeast. Height rises of 50-100
meters were noted over the northern and central parts of the
Plains last evening. Low clouds have been clearing from north to
south and should exit out of the southeast part of the forecast
area this morning. There should be some increase in high level
clouds today, but they may be mostly thin. There are some hints
that an area of low clouds could develop and move southward into
mainly our western IA counties tonight. Model agreement is not
great, so will just have scattered clouds for now and the next
few shifts can monitor.

A ridge of high pressure at the surface extending from near the
MT/ND border to western OK early this morning will build eastward
today and tonight. That ridge will strengthen Tuesday and build
over the forecast area. Winds should remain generally from the
north and temperatures will be a little below normal.

The large area of high pressure at the surface is forecast to move
off to the southeast through Wednesday, while low pressure
develops over the western high Plains. South winds Tuesday night
will start to bring in warmer air, then southwest winds bring in
warmer air and provide somewhat of a downslope component for
Wednesday. That should push temperatures into the lower and mid
60s for most of the area, with mid and upper 50s from around
Hartington and Wayne toward Tekamah, Onawa and Harlan. This may
result in very high fire danger for much of the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 325 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

High pressure will start to build southeast across MN Wednesday
night while low pressure strengthens over eastern CO. This will
turn winds more to the east or southeast, so fire danger may not
be quite as high Thursday. We will keep the forecast mainly dry
until Thursday night.

The mid level flow pattern should feature a ridge initially just
to our west Wednesday night, with a trough extending from off the
coast of British Columbia to off the CA coast. By Friday, there is
considerable model spread in solutions, so details in regards to
precipitation type and timing are not clear. It will however be
more active in the Friday to Sunday period with chances for rain
or snow.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 628 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

VFR conditions will prevail through the period as high pressure
dominates the pattern at the surface.




LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...Fobert is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.