Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 140901
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
401 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

The main line of convection now is characterized by broken heavier
cells within a weakening line and still has to clear the Pennyrile
region of west Kentucky. Overall trend is downward, but the
absence of KPAH radar data makes it difficult assess the overall
rainfall across the area.

Confidence in the evolution today into tonight is not great. The
general idea is for the current band of convection and stratiform
to slowly push eastward through the morning and eventually push
out of the area allowing for a lull throughout the area late this
morning and into the afternoon.

Confidence tanks as there is a signal in the larger-scale models
for a surge of convection over the Pennyrile and possibly
southwest Indiana late this afternoon into the evening, as the
cold front pushes eastward across the region. Most CAM data
indicate little surge, but instead shows some attempt at
scattered convection near the front, and an overall drier
scenario.

Given the forcing, surface boundary, continued strong shear and
anomalously moist airmass, cannot rule out a few severe storms,
but this morning`s convection may make it difficult for the area
to destabilize today. Still cannot rule out a few damaging wind
reports, and certainly some localized heavy rainfall, especially
if the larger-scale models are right with a larger surge through
the Pennyrile. Will continue with the ESF for one more forecast
cycle.

The upper system will slowly move across the region Sunday
resulting in a chance of showers over the north and northeast
mainly Sunday afternoon. It will be sharply colder behind the
front with highs straddling 50 degrees across the region.
Temperatures Sunday night may approach the freezing mark, but
winds will be sufficient to prevent frost except in the most
sheltered of locations.

We will see some sunshine Monday as surface high pressure settles
over the area, but temperatures will only be a few degrees warmer
than Sunday. Clear and calm conditions overnight Monday night will
likely result in widespread frost if not a freeze especially over
the northeast half of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Sat Apr 14 2018

fair to above normal confidence in the extended with some concern
mid week.

The cold front will be to our east at the start of the extended.
This combined with a high over the central plains will result in a
northerly component to our surface winds. This will cause
temperatures to be below normal once again...on the order of 15 to
20 degrees below normal. Tuesday a warm front will lift through the
area brining temperatures back to near normal. Finally a trailing
cold front will move through Wednesday once again taking
temperatures near 10 degrees below normal. There is still some
uncertainty about any precipitation with this cold front as moisture
will be slow to return to the region. High pressure will once again
return to the area keeping temperatures below normal through the end
of the work week with the exception of Tuesday and most of Wednesday
after the warm front passage. The next good chance of rain will
arrive this weekend as the next storm system arrives.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Fri Apr 13 2018

We will have a line of thunderstorms move through during the first
leg of the TAF at all sites. This will restrict vsby but cigs seem
to be staying MVFR at worst. There will also be gusty winds some
near severe with any thunderstorms. FROPA is not expected until
near the last leg of the TAF or around 00z Sunday. This will
result in a wind shift more westerly toward the end of the valid
time. Otherwise winds may drop gusts for a few hours ahead of the
storms but gusts should return.


&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...KH
AVIATION...KH



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