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000
FXUS64 KTSA 181024
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
524 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the valid
period with scattered showers possibly impacting area sites
toward the end of the period.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 304 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Scattered high clouds will continue today ahead of next upper
wave which will move into the region tonight. In response,
scattered showers will move into the area late tonight before
shifting east of NW AR Saturday morning. Elevated instability may
be sufficient to support a few embedded thunderstorms during this
time.

Stronger upper level trough will move out of the central Rockies
on Sunday shifting east into the central Plains Sunday Night.
Ahead of storm system, more significant low level moisture return
is expected ahead of cold front which is forecast to sweep
through the area Sunday night into early Monday. Showers and
thunderstorms will be likely along the front with the potential
for a few severe storms, mainly across southeast Oklahoma where
instability will be maximized.

Dry/cool conditions expected through the early to middle part of
next week with temperatures running a few degrees below normal.
Precipitation chances return by Thursday as another upper trough
swings into the northern/central Plains with associated cold
front. Stayed close to NBM guidance concerning temperatures for
next week.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION.....10