532
FXUS65 KPSR 182030
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
130 PM MST Tue Feb 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry, warm, and tranquil weather conditions will be common during
the next several days. A few weak weather systems will bypass to
the north of the region, one today and another Thursday into
Friday delivering some breezy conditions across the vicinity of
the Lower Colorado River Valley. Strong high pressure will then
build across the western CONUS by this weekend through at least
the first half of next week, delivering well-above normal
temperatures that could potentially push near record territory.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Latest water vapor satellite imagery reveals a weak shortwave trough
traversing the Four-Corners Region. This system will not result any
noticeable sensible weather impacts other than produce some breezy
conditions along the higher terrain areas of southeast CA and the
Lower Colorado River Valley, where peak gusts upwards of 25-30 mph
will be possible through this afternoon. Otherwise, high
temperatures will continue to average 5-8 degrees above normal as
readings top out in the mid to upper 70s across the lower deserts.

As the shortwave trough rapidly shifts eastward, upper-level
ridging will build across the Desert Southwest on Wednesday. This
will result in slightly warmer daytime high temperatures as
readings reach the upper 70s with some areas approaching 80
degrees across the lower deserts with similar readings expected on
Thursday. The ridging will then temporarily break down later
Thursday through Friday as another weak shortwave trough will
traverse the Four Corners Region. This system similar to the
system passing through today will not result in much in the way of
significant sensible weather impacts other than produce breezy to
locally windy conditions along the vicinity of the Lower Colorado
River Valley area, mainly for Friday, as gusts could reach as
high 30-35 mph in some areas. These elevated gusts in combination
with low MinRHs and dry fuels could actually lead to locally
elevated fire weather conditions. Otherwise, not much change in
the temperatures are expected as highs will continue top out in
the upper 70s across most of the lower deserts.

Strong consensus continues amongst the ensembles of strong
ridging building overhead heading into the weekend through most of
next week. This ridging will keep dry and tranquil weather
conditions in place. The big story will be the potential for near
record high temperatures to materialize, especially during the
early to middle portion of next week. With 500 mb height fields
likely to approach/exceed 580dm, high temperatures are likely to
top out in the mid to upper 80s across most of the lower deserts
starting on Sunday. There is even a decent shot (30-60% based on
the latest NBM) for several of the lower desert locations to
approach 90 degrees for the first time this year, with the best
potential at this time appearing to be Tuesday and Wednesday of
next week. Temperatures reaching 90+ degrees would be quite
unusual for February given that the average first 90 degree day
for Yuma and El Centro does not occur until late March and for
Phoenix not until early April.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1725Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation weather concerns are anticipated through the period.
Winds will follow typical diurnal tendencies with an earlier than
usual westerly shift expected at the Phoenix Metro terminals this
afternoon. Speeds should remain light aob 7 kts through tonight.
Across the SE California terminals, expect breezy northerly winds
this afternoon into early this evening with gusts reaching 18-20
kts at times. High cirrus will increasing in coverage across the
region late tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions, with MinRH values generally in the middle to upper
teens, will persist through the end of the workweek. Winds across
most of the districts will follow light and diurnal trends over
the next few days, with the one exception being this afternoon
across parts of the western districts where marginal breeziness
(25-30 mph) will develop. As another dry weather system bypasses
to the north late this week, another round breezy to locally
windy conditions should be anticipated for these same areas,
leading to locally elevated fire weather conditions. Temperatures
will remain 5-10 degrees above-normal into this weekend.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lojero
AVIATION...Salerno
FIRE WEATHER...RW/Lojero