805
FXUS65 KPSR 092305
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
405 PM MST Mon Feb 9 2026

.UPDATE...00Z Aviation Discussion

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures will persist through Tuesday
  resulting in areas of minor HeatRisk across the lower
  elevations.

- A pattern change mid to late week will lead to cooler
  temperatures and increasing rain chances, particularly across
  the eastern half of Arizona.

- Weather conditions will briefly turn more tranquil over the
  upcoming weekend before becoming more unsettled once again
  early next week as another storm system potentially impacts the
  region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...
The overall synoptic pattern remains largely unchanged from
yesterday, with upper level water vapor satellite imagery showing
high pressure over head and a cutoff low over the south-central
Baja Peninsula. H5 heights over AZ remain around 576-580 dm.
Temperatures this afternoon are within a couple degrees
(plus/minus) of what they were around this time yesterday.
Therefore, afternoon high temperatures should be very similar to
yesterday. Temperatures currently range from the low-to-mid 80s
across the lower deserts, and there`s still around an hour or two
more of heating to reach the afternoon high temperature across
the region. Phoenix Sky Harbor has already reached 85 degrees, so
it is still possible to see it go up to 86 degrees to tie the
current record high temperature for the day, set back in 2016.

Tomorrow we will finally start to see a shift in the overall
synoptic pattern as an upper-level trough starts to approach the
west coast. As a result of this, the aforementioned closed low will
weaken and eject to the east/northeast going into northern Mexico
and western Texas. As a result, heights aloft will lower to around
570-574 dm. Additionally the approaching trough will result in
increasing high level clouds across the region. The combination of
lowering heights aloft and increased cloud cover will result in
temperatures cooling around 4-6 degrees from today. However, due to
the high temperatures today this means afternoon high temperatures
tomorrow will still be well above normal and ranging from the upper
70s to low 80s across lower deserts and in the lower 70s across the
higher terrain. With temperatures forecasted to be near 80 degrees
tomorrow, there will still be some isolated areas of Minor HeatRisk.
Therefore anyone that spends a prolonged period of time outside
should make sure to stay hydrated and take breaks in the shade.

On Wednesday the aforementioned upper-level trough will continue
to slowly progress eastward, moving onshore in central California,
but weakening as it does. Most of the forcing associated with
this trough will remain north of our region, however, there will
be a noticeable increase in mid and upper level moisture. PWATs
are forecasted to go from their current range of 0.3-0.5" up to
0.7- 0.8", which is close to 200% of normal. As a result, a few
showers with the upslope flow may be able to be squeezed out late
Tuesday into early Wednesday across the higher terrain to the
north and east of Phoenix. With the latest forecast update, NBM
PoPs remain around 20% or less across the higher terrain areas to
the north and east of Phoenix. Any showers that do develop should
be short- lived with little to no accumulations. Additionally,
with the trough pushing further inland, H5 heights will continue
to lower and go into a 568- 573 dm range across the CWA. As a
result temperatures will cool, with afternoon high temperatures
currently forecasted to be in the mid to upper 70s across the
lower deserts and in the upper 60s to low 70s across the higher
terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
Weather conditions will remain unsettled heading towards the end of
the week as another troughing feature affects the region. The latest
model guidance shows the trough moving through late Thursday into
Friday. There is still some uncertainty in terms of the overall
strength of the trough as it passes by, however, the latest trends
from the guidance does show the trough rather progressive and
positively tilted, which is not an ideal setup for good moisture
advection and thus widespread rain potential. Therefore, any
precipitation potential will be mainly confined across the eastern
AZ higher terrain areas, where NBM PoPs are between 30-60% during
the day Friday. With the trough passage, afternoon high temperatures
on Friday will cool down to around 70 degrees across the south-
central AZ lower deserts (which is right around seasonal norms) to
the middle 70s across the western deserts.

After the trough exits to the east, more tranquil weather settles in
over the weekend as a transient ridge moves overhead with dry
conditions and temperatures slightly warming up. The tranquil
weather will likely be short-lived as both the deterministic and
ensemble model suite continue to be consistent in indicating a more
potent troughing feature setting up early next week across the
western CONUS, which if the overall trajectory is ideal, could lead
to more widespread precipitation chances across the Desert
Southwest. Given that this potential storm system is still about a
week out, there is a good deal of uncertainty on how things will
play out with the precipitation potential and is something that will
have to be monitored throughout the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 2305Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No major weather issues will exist through Tuesday afternoon with
mid/high clouds replacing clear skies by the morning hours.
Winds will continue to favor light and diurnal tendencies through
the front half of the period, but confidence is low regarding
the typical afternoon W`rly shift toward the end of the forecast.
If this switch were to not occur, a more S`rly component would be
favored. VRB to calm conditions will be common across the region
through Tuesday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Well-above normal temperatures and dry conditions will persist early
this week. By mid to late week, a pattern change is expected that
will cool temperatures several degrees (although remaining above
normal). MinRH values will increase to 20-35% tomorrow and
continue to be in that range through the remainder of the week.
Winds will remain very light today, with occasional breeziness
expected the rest of the week. A weather system late in the week
will bring a 20-50% chance of wetting rains over the higher
terrain areas of the eastern districts.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Berislavich
LONG TERM...Lojero
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich/Lojero