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000
FXUS61 KBGM 161832
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
232 PM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will push eastward tonight as low pressure tracks
into the Great Lakes. Clouds will increase early Wednesday
followed by rain showers Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.
Brief high pressure pushes across the area on Thursday night
before another weather front brings a threat for more showers on
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

230 PM Update...

Mostly sunny skies across the region this afternoon with ridging
overhead. Ridging will slide eastward tonight with low level
ENE winds that will keep the colder air in place for one more
night. Skies should remain mostly clear until early Wednesday
morning, so we should still get some efficient radiational
cooling. Decided to drop low temperatures below MOS guidance by
just a few degrees, with the coldest spots dipping down to near
freezing.

Warm front pushes northward tomorrow and clouds will increase
from the southwest in the morning. At this time, it appears rain
showers will hold off until the late morning or early afternoon.
Showers will push to the NE as the day progresses, with much of
the area seeing rain by tomorrow evening. Rainfall will be light
to moderate and not expecting any issues hydro wise with this
system. NAM forecast soundings are indicating some weak
elevated instability Wednesday evening into early Thursday
morning. This is generally west of I81, so an isolated embedded
thunderstorm is possible, but still not expecting anything too
heavy that would cause any hydro problems. Temperatures will
remain warm tomorrow night as well with the rain and clouds,
with lows only in the mid to upper 40s most places.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
320 AM Update

This period will feature rather unsettled and showery weather, as
two frontal systems spin through the forecast area.

The first is overhead Wednesday night into the day on Thursday,
bringing widespread showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms to
the region. Overall, this system will keep conditions cloudy,
showery and cooler...especially over the eastern half of the area
(generally along and east of I-81). Rainfall amounts look to be up
to around a half an inch over the area, so nothing too heavy.
Southeast winds at 8-15 mph persist during this timeframe, and high
temperatures will only be 45 to 55 east of I-81 Thursday...milder in
the mid-50s to low 60s west where there could be a few breaks in the
clouds/showers later in the day. This first frontal system exits,
with generally dry conditions expected Thursday night, along with
seasonable overnight lows in the upper 30s to mid-40s.

The brief dry period doesn`t last, as yet another frontal system
quickly moves in from the west during the day on Friday. Exact
timing is uncertain, but chances for rain showers look to increase
up to high chance/low likely PoPs by afternoon over the area. If the
current timing holds, temperatures would rise up into the mid-50s to
lower 60s before the rain chances increase later in the day. Breezy
south winds at 10-20 mph are expected on Friday ahead of the cold
front. Rain showers are also likely Friday night as the actual cold
front slowly presses through. It will be cool, with lows in the low
to mid-40s. Rainfall amounts from this second system are looking
light as well, with up to a half inch once again. Overall, did not
stray far from the NBM on most parameters in the short term period,
as it seemed to have a good handle on these systems at this time range.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
320 AM Update

The weekend starts off with cool, partly sunny conditions and
perhaps some lingering scattered rain showers behind the departing
cold front on Saturday. Winds turn west-northwest and are forecast
to breezy, between 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon. High pressure
begins to build into the area from the west Saturday night. This
should bring gradually clearing, and diminishing winds. It will be
seasonably chilly, with lows in the lower to mid-30s expected.

Sunday and Monday are looking dry at this time, under the large area
of high pressure. This should bring mostly sunny/clear
conditions...especially on Monday. Increased the diurnal
temperatures range by a few degrees each period, with it likely
being 1-3 degrees warmer during the day than the NBM suggested...and
perhaps a bit cooler at night in the lower to mid-30s again. This
looks to be a good setup for potential frost. At this point next
Tuesday is also looking mainly dry and mild, with highs in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions and clear skies will prevail at all terminals
through most of the TAF period as high pressure remains over
the region. There is a small chance for MVFR showers to push
into ELM and AVP just before the end of the period, but
confidence in the timing is low, so left it out of the forecast at
this time.


Outlook...

Wednesday afternoon through Friday: Chance of showers each day
with restrictions possible.

Saturday...NW flow with some MVFR cigs possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...MPK