Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 151950

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
250 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Main forecast challenges for this time frame is centered on Friday,
with both severe weather chances and afternoon fire weather concerns
across southeast Kansas and western Missouri.

Mid level ridging shifts eastward tonight as a rather vigorous
shortwave trough rotates out into central Kansas, while a surface
low deepens in the same general area. All short term models are
indicating showers developing tonight, perhaps as early as the
evening hours as both lift and instability increases. Will likely
see some isolated thunderstorms, especially after 06Z. rather breezy
southerly winds will keep temperatures rather mild, with lows only
in the middle 50s over southeast Kansas to the middle 40s over
portions of the eastern Ozarks.

On Friday, the surface low deepens as it translates into northeast
Kansas, with a warm front laying out along the Interstate 70
corridor. A rather strong pressure gradient develops across
southeast Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks as a surface
trough/dryline pushes through the region with a narrow ribbon of
limited instability ahead of it. There remains a marginal risk for
severe weather across much of the area during the morning hours
into early afternoon and then shifting more into the eastern
Ozarks during the mid to late afternoon, with mainly damaging wind
gusts and hail being the main threats. By afternoon. drier air
gets advected into southeast Kansas and western Missouri and this
combined with windy conditions and temperatures in the 70s will
lead to elevated to critical fire weather conditions for the
afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Friday night the surface low translates across central Missouri
pushing any remaining precipitation to the east of the area. This
dry and somewhat cooler conditions will then prevail through the
day Saturday as a quick shot of mid level ridging builds across
the region through Saturday night.

Rather progressive flow brings another system towards the area
Sunday as troughing develops to the west and  mid and upper level
flow becomes more southwesterly. This will keep rain chances from
Sunday into Tuesday before somewhat quiet northwest flow develops on
its backside for Wednesday and Thursday. Although cannot totally rule
out any severe weather late this weekend or early next week,
there is not enough model consensus at this point for any degree
of confidence for any severe weather. Temperatures look to remain
mild Sunday and Monday with cooler weather then expected Tuesday
through Thursday, with highs in the 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Breezy southwest winds will continue through much of the TAF
period as a developing low pressure center deepens across Kansas.
VFR flight conditions will prevail through much of the overnight
period. However, short term models are indicating MVFR ceilings
developing towards 12Z Friday ahead of the low and approaching mid
level shortwave. A band of showers and isolated thunderstorms
will also develop through the overnight hours tonight.


Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Mar 15 2018

Significant fire weather conditions were occuring in areas to the
west of highway 65 this afternoon. Relative humidities have
dropped to near 20 percent in some locations along with southwest
winds of 15 to 25 mph. THese conditions will continue into early
evening bore improving.

On Friday, a sharp dryline will advance into the western areas
by mi-day with strong gusty winds and humidity values dropping.
Red Flag conditions look more likely for areas along and west of
I-49 Friday afternoon and a Fire Weather Watch continues for these
areas and has been expanded to include McDonald County in far
southwest Missouri. Outdoor burning is strongly not recommended
this afternoon or again Friday afternoon.


MO...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055-066>068-

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for MOZ066-077-088-093-101.

KS...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for KSZ073-097-101.



SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
FIRE WEATHER...Raberding is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.