


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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887 FXUS63 KSGF 282002 AFDSGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 302 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms will continue across portions of the eastern Ozarks this afternoon into this evening, decreasing by sunset. Rain rates of 1-3 in/hr, localized flash flooding, and a strong downburst or two will be possible in the strongest cells. - Additional showers and storms are expected tonight into Sunday morning across portions of the area, especially east of Highway 65. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding will be possible with this activity. - Another round of showers and storms will move through the region Sunday night into Monday. There is a Marginal (1 of 5) Risk for some of these storms to become severe. - Some mild heat relief during the middle of next week following the frontal passage. 15-30% chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms will exist in southern Missouri near the front. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Showers and scattered thunderstorms continue across the eastern Ozarks this afternoon east of Highway 65. This activity will continue to slowly move east late this afternoon into early this evening and should dissipated by sunset this evening. The coverage in storms may decrease in the next few hours prior to the showers fully ending. No severe weather is expected with this activity as shear is weak and instability is more limited. There is a low chance (<15%) for an isolated shower/storm along and west of Highway 65 this afternoon but most locations should remain dry through this evening as instability has decreased behind the convection and lift has moved east of these locations. The morning convection and clouds have kept the area cool this afternoon with highs in the lower to middle 80s will occur across much of the area. Muggy conditions will still occur as dewpoints are in the 70s. Tonight into Sunday morning MUCAPE will increase as the cap weakens lift will over spread the area and additional showers and storms are expected to develop. This activity will likely be scattered in nature, but there is the potential for banding of showers and storms to develop across portions of central Missouri allowing multiple storms to track over the same locations. Precipitable water values will be around 1.75 to 2" leading to heavy rainfall rates with the storms. Any where training of storms can develop heavy rainfall and a flash flood risk will occur. These would be very localized and hard to pin point exactly where training will exactly develop until the convection develops. The CAMS are showing a signal for this setting up shower were across central Missouri and the easterly Ozarks. A quick 1 to 2" of rainfall will be possible with any storm today, and where storms persist over the same locations there is the potential for very localized amounts up to 4 to 6" if training occurs over the same locations. The convection should end by mid day on Sunday. If clouds clear early enough in the day and instability can recover some isolated storms would be possible late Sunday afternoon into the evening. Coverage would not be widespread and these storms are dependent on what occurs Sunday morning. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Additional storms are expected to develop north of the area Sunday evening and develop into a complex and dive south into and possibly through the area Sunday night into Monday morning. An unstable air mass will be in place but shear will not be overly strong. Exactly where the MCS tracks will be dependent on where the convection develops. The instability would support the complex of storms moving south into the area on MUCAPE gradient. However, the weaker shear and the wind fields by become more west to east time. It is possible a line of storms develop but becomes more outflow dominate when it moves into the area. With the wind flow the outflow boundary could move more south away from the showers and storms as they move more east with time Sunday night into Monday morning. There is an SPC Marginal Severe Risk (1/5) for damaging winds Sunday night into early Monday mainly across the northern portions of the area as the storms may weaken more to the south if the outflow races off to the south. There will also be the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flooding. Depending on the morning convection there could be the potential for afternoon and evening scattered storms as a front moves through the area on Monday, but of the outflow destabilized things enough it is also possible once the morning convection pushes out there rest of the day will be dry. A slightly less humid air mass will be in place across the area Tuesday into Wednesday with highs in the middle to upper 80s. Humidity values will then start to increase later in week as highs in the upper 80s to around 90 return to the area. Isolated afternoon and evening storms will be possible later in the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1150 AM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 An area of showers and scattered thunderstorms are currently across southern Missouri late this morning. This activity will continue to slowly move east across the area this afternoon into early this evening. This activity should then overall dissipate around sunset. The better coverage in storms may remain just east of the TAF sites but some embedded thunderstorms within the showers will remain possible. Later tonight into Sunday additional bands of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop and move south through the area. MVFR to brief IFR conditions will be possible with the storms today and again tonight into Sunday morning. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Wise LONG TERM...Wise AVIATION...Wise