Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 131731

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1231 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Issued at 221 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Omega blocking pattern aloft still set up across U.S. and Canada
early this morning with low #1 just off the west coast, a high
amplitude ridge over the Rockies and low #2 currently centered
over the Great Lakes. Northwest flow on the back of low #2 and
ahead of the ridge was occurring over the plains and into our CWA
early this morning, with a weak embedded shortwave pushing
through. At the surface, a Canadian high pressure system was
building into the area from the north-northwest. The low levels
were fairly dry with this feature, but the upper level shortwave
was causing some high level cloud cover early this morning.

Temperatures were ranging from the mid 20s to low 30s across the
CWA with a light northwest or calm wind.

The main forecast focus in the short term will be with
temperatures as the Canadian air mass moves in.

As we head into the long term, fire weather may become a concern
by Wednesday afternoon with a dry air mass and winds starting to
increase, which will continue into Thursday. A more unsettled
period will begin late in the week through the remainder of the
long term period as low #1 off the west coast begins to break down
the ridge and move inland.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

For today...surface ridge will continue to move into the area
while shortwave energy currently bringing the high cloud cover to
the area shifts south of the region and sunshine returns for most
of the day. Despite the sunshine, temperatures will be below
normal today with the cold Canadian air mass in place. The light
wind and clear sky will allow temperatures to dip back down into
the mid 20s tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

On Wednesday, the surface high will shift south of the area and
will start to see more of a southerly wind develop. With dry
conditions in place, there may be some elevated fire weather
conditions developing during the afternoon. The more gusty winds
however will be in the west, while the driest air with humidity
levels in the mid 20 percent will be in the east.

Southerly winds will increase more on Thursday, especially south
of a developing warm front. While winds will be more gusty
especially in the west, the humidity levels will be higher on
Thursday, but may still see some elevated fire weather conditions

By Thursday night, divergent flow aloft will set up in the plains ahead
of some shortwave energy which breaks out from the main upper low
which will bring some showers/thunderstorms into the area late
Thursday night into Saturday as the upper level shortwave shifts
east into the area. Instability looks marginal at this time so no
severe weather is expected.

Models are showing more energy breaking off from the main low and
shifting into the plains late in the weekend, which would bring
the next round of showers/thunderstorms to the area by late Sunday
or Sunday night continuing into Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Tue Mar 13 2018

High pressure moving over the region today will remain in place
over the area through Wednesday. Generally light surface winds
will shift from northerly to southwesterly by sunrise, otherwise
no impacts to aviation concerns are expected.




SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Hatch is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.