Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 170450

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1150 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

As the h5 low exits towards the northeast this afternoon, clear
skies returned to northeast Kansas as upper ridging builds over the
central plains. Temperatures were able to recover into the 50s with
weak temperature advection and decent, diurnal heating. Light winds
tonight under mostly clear skies result in a strong sfc inversion
overnight as temperatures fall into the low and middle 30s. Areas of
frost are likely especially along and north of Interstate 70 where
temps hover around freezing.

The next open, mid level wave quickly translates over the Inter
mountain west Tuesday afternoon. Sfc low quickly develops across
central Kansas, advecting warm, moist air into the CWA. The main
uncertainty to hinder the warmer temps will be the low level clouds
progged to develop during the afternoon, especially further north
where southeast winds may keep highs down into the lower 60s. Latest
guidance is also trending cooler with the expansive cloud cover and
the thermal ridge setting up towards central Kansas. This would
place the upper 70s regime in the Flint hills area, with most
locations holding in the mid to upper 60s. Wind speeds increase
during the day, peaking in the 15 to 20 mph range with gusts up to
30 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

Fire weather concerns increase Tuesday night and Wednesday with
wind speeds increasing and veering towards the northwest as the
closed upper low matures, impacting the upper midwest region. West
to northwest wind speeds may reach close to advisory criteria in
the 20 to 30 mph sustained range, gusting up to 40 mph at times
through the day Wednesday. There is a chance for scattered
showers, perhaps a thunderstorm or two, for areas near the
Nebraska border Tuesday night, otherwise most of the area is dry.
For more information on fire weather concerns, see the discussion
below. Temperatures moderate slightly given the lack of a cold
airmass downstream of the system, ranging in the mid to upper 60s.

The remainder of the work week is quiet as ridging builds back into
the area while temperatures hold in the 60s for highs with overnight
lows in the middle to upper 30s. With the lighter winds in place,
fire weather concerns are not warranted. Next major system impacts
the region Friday night through Sunday. Forecast soundings suggest
rain will be the precipitation type. Ensembles are still trending
the track of the upper low axis being a bit further south, focusing
the heavy precip axis towards southern Kansas into Oklahoma. For the
time being, light qpf amounts are anticipated.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

There is some model discretion regarding the return of clouds
late morning and into the afternoon. These ceilings appear to
occur around the 3-4 kft level as moisture advects from the
south. Daytime heating may be able to mix out the clouds as a warm
front gets close to the I-70 corridor. There is a slight chance
for vicinity showers and or a storm late in the period just ahead
of a cold front that arrives around 06z. Winds increase out of the
southeast ahead of the front and then shift to the west and stay


Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Apr 16 2018

On Tuesday afternoon, very high fire danger conditions exist
across far south Lyon and Morris counties as RH values fall into
the 35 to 40 percent range. Easterly winds at this time sustain
between 10 and 15 mph. Strong winds shift from the west and
northwest Tuesday night with sustained speeds of 20 to 30 mph
likely. Wind gusts in excess of 40 mph are expected, especially
west of highway 75. Any prescribed burns that occur on Tuesday
afternoon may reignite in the evening as the cold front comes
through and speeds increase. Very high fire danger conditions
become widespread as humidity values drop Wednesday afternoon,
especially along, south of Interstate 70 and west of highway 75.
RH values are currently forecast in the 25 to 30 percent range.




LONG TERM...Prieto
FIRE WEATHER...Prieto is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.