Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 270818
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
318 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Early this morning a mid-level ridge was stretched across the
central U.S., and this ridge is expected to deepen further into the
Northern Plains through the day.  The region will remain wedged
between surface high pressure to the east and a surface low over
eastern Colorado, resulting in southerly winds supporting continued
warm-air advection.  This southerly flow was helping to keep early
morning temperatures quite mild, with lows likely only dropping into
the upper 60s to low 70s.

Satellite imagery shows some high clouds over western Kansas along
the western edge of the ridge axis, with models showing this
scattered cirrus streaming over the region through today.  Despite
these scattered high clouds, expect conditions to quickly warm up
from the mild start to the day as model soundings show fairly deep
mixing through this afternoon.  As a result, expect another day of
near-record high temperatures with readings soaring into the low 90s
over far east central KS and into the upper 90s across portions of
central to northeast KS.  With the mid-level ridge axis remaining
centered over the CWA through tonight, expect the persistent
southerly flow to once again keep overnight temperatures on the mild
side with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

On Monday the midlevel low pressure will begin the process of
lifting northeastward with several vorticity maximums rotating
around it. The westerly flow aloft over the Front Range deepens the
lee-side trough causing a dry line to become established in western
KS. Coinciding with peak heating one of the vorticity maximums lifts
out over northeast CO and southeast WY with perhaps some influence
across western KS. This forcing along with a weakened caps allows
for convective initiation on the dry line. Given the deep layer
shear is almost perpendicular to the dry line a discrete mode will
be favored initially. The upscale growth/MCS development will be
dictated by the synoptic forcing, which will determine storm
coverage and cold pool extent. There is a chance one of these
potential MCSs could move into portions of central KS late
evening and early morning. The main question is will this MCS be
able to maintain intensity since it may be severe across western
KS. As of now the higher risk for severe hazards is west of the
forecast area. On Tuesday morning the midlevel low pressure
continues lifting northeastward over the northern High Plains with
a trough axis extending southward over the Central Plains. The
surface dry line moves eastward towards central KS and a dry punch
forms in NW OK. A convective-outflow boundary may linger around
north central KS in the morning keeping a chance for showers and
storms.


During the day Tuesday the main trough axis tracks over the region
and interacts with the synoptic boundary and dry-line bulge. Storm
initiation will take place during peak heating. The two main
uncertainties will be if the lingering precipitation around north
central KS and south central NE that results in overturning. If
that area is able to destabilize then strong to severe storms
could form along the synoptic boundary in the afternoon and
evening in central NE. A more unstable environment is expected
across south central KS with convective initiation near the dry-
line bulge. It is uncertain if any upscale growth will take place
in our forecast area. There is a stronger signal that a convective
complex materializes near Wichita and propagates into southeast
KS leaving an outflow that could become the new effective
boundary. Depending on the timing of the main trough axis and
subsequent weaker waves that move over the area Wednesday could be
relatively dry. Wednesday night into Thursday one of these
potential shortwaves could interact with the effective boundary
causing development in eastern KS. A ridge aloft builds over the
region on Friday and Saturday resulting in warmer than normal
temperatures. Although by Sunday a strong cold front and
associated surface high may offer some relief.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

VFR prevails as southerly winds increase close to 10 kts sustained
aft 20Z.


&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

Record High Temperatures for May 27th:
    Topeka:  92, set in 2006
    Concordia:  95, set in 2006

Record High Temperatures for May 28th:
    Topeka: 93, set in 2012
    Concordia:  96, set in 1921

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Prieto
CLIMATE...Hennecke



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