Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 232003

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
303 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Warm southerly breezes dominate the weather pattern late this
afternoon, as the main warm front has lifted northeast into NE KS.
Dryline making slow progress into central KS at this time, but a
strong elevated mixed layer (cap) will kept a lid on anything
developing along the dryline. As the evening progresses, expect warm
advection and isentropic lift ahead of the main low pressure area to
increase the chances for showers and a few thunderstorms for areas
just to the NE of the forecast area, over NE KS, closer to the warm
front. This increasing warm flow, may lead to some patchy drizzle
just to the west-SW of KEMP so will add this mention for this
evening, as low level saturation increases over the northern Flint

Main cold front associated with a developing surface low pressure
area is expected to develop over NW KS, and is expected to sweep
southeast across the forecast late tonight into Sat morning, as the
low treks east into wrn MO by Sat morning. Expecting any precip
along the front to the stay to the north of the forecast area,
where elevated mixed layer is weaker and convergence is a better.

Sat-Sun: the cold front will push south into the Red River valley
for Sat thru Sat night, with high pressure leading to a nice spring
day. Some cold advection will lead to cooler temps, closer to
normal. The weak ridging and surface ridge will quickly shift to the
east of the forecast late Sat night, with SW flow leading to low
level moisture quickly returning to the plains by early Sun morning.
Isentropic lift/moisture return and upslope flow will lead to
increasing clouds by Sun morning, with possibly a few scattered
showers breaking out across southern KS by Sun afternoon. Models
differ on how they want to handle the main surface trough and low
pressure area for Sun evening/night.  With either solution,
increasing depth of the moisture in the sw flow, suggests shower and
embedded thunderstorm chance will ramp up for Sunday evening and
Sunday night.  Still some uncertainty on where the heaviest rainfall
will be, but certainly looks like a decent rain chance, as diffluent
flow increases across the area. The rainiest time frame looks to be
late Sun night through Mon morning.

Stalled frontal boundary will be slow to move across the forecast
area for Mon and possibly through Tue morning, as the boundary
remains parallel to the mid level SW flow.  Looks like a rainy start
to the week, as low level moisture will continue to overrun the
boundary as least through tue morning, for an off and on shower and
thunderstorm chances.


.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Friday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Some uncertainty on the how the middle of the week will play out, as
the main shortwave over the Rockies gradually makes its way across
the plains for Tue evening, with the frontal boundary pushing south
into OK for Tue night.  the uncertainty lies in how far south the
front will actually get before stalling over OK. Moisture over the
top of the boundary may make it back into southern KS for the middle
of the week for additional shower chances.

Temperatures will be problematic for the end of the forecast,
depending on amount of clouds/precipitation. Potentially could see a
couple of fairly couple of day near, with temps a little below
seasonal norms.



.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Main challenges for this forecast are the timing of the frontal
boundary and lower ceilings in southeast Kansas. Gusty winds and
high clouds will stay in place until late this evening. The
directional component is difficult to pinpoint exactly when this
will happen. Low level wind shear has been inserted for each site
at varying times based on the adjustments as the front moves
through. Anticipation is that this parameter will be adjusted with
the next forecast issuances.

Models are suggesting MVFR ceilings to impact KCNU from 3Z thru
the rest of the forecast period. A struggle in resolving the
moisture column and respective cloud cover can certainly be
noticed with the variance in the guidance. This has been mentioned
in the TAFS since MVFR ceilings are heading northward into
southeast Kansas. An earlier arrival of these ceilings could
occur. A shower or isolated thunderstorm could impact the
vicinity of KCNU this evening; however, confidence is low that
this will happen. Thus it has been left out at this time.



Issued at 259 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

Gusty winds late this today with fairly dry air will result in a
very high grassland fire danger for most locations. Conditions
improve on Saturday-Sunday, but increasing winds on Monday will lead
to a very high grassland fire danger again for most areas.



Wichita-KICT    52  66  38  58 /   0   0  10  30
Hutchinson      50  64  36  57 /   0   0  10  20
Newton          49  62  36  56 /  10   0  10  30
ElDorado        51  63  36  57 /   0   0  10  30
Winfield-KWLD   54  67  39  59 /   0   0  10  40
Russell         44  62  35  56 /  10   0  10  20
Great Bend      46  64  36  57 /   0   0  10  20
Salina          47  60  35  56 /  20   0  10  30
McPherson       48  61  35  56 /  10   0  10  30
Coffeyville     56  68  38  59 /  10   0   0  40
Chanute         53  63  36  56 /  20   0   0  40
Iola            52  61  36  56 /  30   0   0  30
Parsons-KPPF    54  66  38  58 /  20   0   0  40




SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
FIRE WEATHER...Ketcham is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.