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000
FXUS63 KDDC 101905
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
205 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

...Updated Long Term...

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021

Radar shows widespread light rain continuing across the southeast
zones as of midday, with areas of less organized light rain
elsewhere. Rain will continue to decrease in coverage through this
afternoon, as dynamic lift wanes in the wake of the departing
shortwave. Stratus ceilings will rise some this afternoon, but
with few if any breaks expected, and moist northeast/east upslope
in the boundary layer continuing, temperatures will struggle.
Afternoon temperatures in the lower to mid 50s will average around
20 degrees below normal. The record low max for Dodge City for
May 10th is 52/1979.

Rain will redevelop tonight in response to strong lift ahead of
the next incoming shortwave. QPF of 0.25-0.50 inch will be common
tonight, particularly along and north of US 50, where models agree
forcing will be most focused. Instability is virtually
nonexistent, with CAPE < 200 J/kg, so removed thunder from the
grids. Kept all precipitation as rain, although some wet snow may
mix in at times across the highest terrain of NW Hamilton county.
Sunrise temperatures Tuesday ranging from the upper 30s NW to the
upper 40s SE.

Another unseasonably cold cloudy day Tuesday. If anything, models
project the atmosphere will be a little colder Tuesday versus
Monday, with 850 mb temperatures of only 1-2C and lower
thicknesses. Again on Tuesday, widespread rain in the morning will
decrease in coverage through the afternoon, allowing temperatures
to move a few degrees, but again they will struggle. Models
project stratus all day, with saturation at 850 mb and continued
cool/moist easterly upslope flow. Afternoon temperatures will
range from upper 40s west to the lower 50s east, 25-30 degrees
below normal! The record low max at Dodge City for May 11th is 47,
set last year in 2020. We should do better than that, but it will
be close.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 205 PM CDT Mon May 10 2021

The unseasonably cool air will erode quickly in the strong May
sun, and a rapid warming trend in both max/min temperatures is
expected Wednesday through Friday.

Although NBM hangs onto some low pops Wednesday, believe dry
weather will return as 12z ECMWF depicts. Unseasonably cool
surface high pressure ridge will stubbornly remain over Kansas for
one more day, and with residual clouds and easterly upslope
surface wind components, afternoon temperatures will remain way
below normal, mainly in the mid to upper 50s.

South winds return Thursday along with more plentiful sun, with
dry NWly flow aloft. All zones will be dry, with afternoon
temperatures bouncing back to the upper 60s and lower 70s (still
below normal).

Models show strong warming Friday, with afternoon temperatures
returning to normal, in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Moisture
advection on the southerly winds will pull 50s dewpoints back into
SW KS by Friday, and the dryline will reestablish. Chance pops for
convection favoring the eastern zones from the NBM were accepted.

Afternoon temperatures will remain seasonably warm over the
weekend, in the lower to mid 80s, with a chance of late
afternoon/evening thunderstorms daily. NBM pops were accepted.
12z ECMWF keeps its closed cyclone over California over the
upcoming weekend, with upper forcing over the plains rather
nebulous or ill-defined with broad ridging and weak embedded
shortwaves. The dryline will be there as a focusing mechanism,
and it`s the time of year in which it doesn`t take much to get
storms going. ECMWF solutions in particular favor a convectively
active weekend.

Early next week looks seasonably convectively active, as the SW US
cutoff low drifts out onto the plains. The cyclone doesn`t look
overly strong, but moisture will be available and severe weather
potential is expected.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1015 AM CDT Mon May 10 2021

Degraded flight categories will prevail through much of this TAF
period. Radar showed areas of light rain near the airports as of
15z. Rain coverage will decrease this afternoon, with stratus
ceilings expected to show small improvements through 00z Tue.
High confidence that IFR/LIFR will return tonight, as the next
shortwave arrives, lowering ceilings once again with another round
of widespread light rain. Again Tuesday, flight categories will
gradually improve during the daylight hours, as rain coverage
decreases and ceilings again slowly improve. Still, consensus of
short term models suggests MVFR stratus will continue through
Tuesday afternoon. Light NE winds will prevail at all airports.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  53  42  50  41 /  80  80  60  30
GCK  50  40  48  40 /  90  90  70  40
EHA  55  41  48  39 /  70  70  50  50
LBL  54  41  49  40 / 100  50  50  40
HYS  57  43  53  39 /  30  70  80  30
P28  59  47  55  45 / 100  50  60  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Turner
LONG TERM...Turner
AVIATION...Turner