Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 271838
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1238 PM CST Sat Feb 27 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1238 PM CST Sat Feb 27 2021

Adjusted flurry mention back further west, as spots in the Devils
Lake Basin as well as from the Red River Valley eastward continue
to show -SN at times. Convective snow showers that were heavier
seem to have weakened, even considering movement away from the
radar. Flurries will continue for a while longer this afternoon,
with pretty cold temperatures ranging from below zero in the
northeastern ND to 20s lingering in west central MN.

UPDATE Issued at 938 AM CST Sat Feb 27 2021

Adjusted POPs a bit further, as one of the heavier areas of snow
is now just east of the Mayville radar. High mid-level lapse rates
have been producing some convective elements in the snow, but
amounts seen so far have been remaining an inch or less due to the
fast movement of the system. Minor travel impacts still possible
for the next few hours as this area of snow moves eastward and
weakens. Will reissue SPS and have it going a bit longer and a bit
further east.

UPDATE Issued at 612 AM CST Sat Feb 27 2021

A band of generally light snow, with heavier pockets, is moving
across northeastern North Dakota this morning. This should make it
into the Red River Valley before 7am, with minor travel impacts
possible. While most of the snowfall is light to moderate,
radar estimated snowfall rates as high as 1 to 1.5 inches per hour
are possible. This system is expected to weaken as it moves into
west-central and northwestern Minnesota.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 312 AM CST Sat Feb 27 2021

Minor impacts are possible this morning as light snow works across
eastern North Dakota. Radar returns are minimal, and webcams across
the Devils Lake to Grand Forks corridor along HWY 2 are showing
minimal accumulations on roadways. High resolution ensemble guidance
keeps precipitation very light, with only a dusting to near a half
inch expected for most areas north of I-94. A heavier snow band or
two could form and produce upwards of an inch.

For today into tonight, look for much cooler temperatures in the
wake of a clipper system. Highs will only reach the single digits in
the Devils Lake Basin, with upper 20s near Fergus Falls. Breezy
north winds keep the wind chill in the 10 to 20 below zero range
heading into the evening and overnight hours, with lows falling into
the single digits either side of zero. Sunday brings highs in the
teens to upper 20s, with the coldest highs being near Lake of the
Woods and our warmest highs occuring south of Valley City. Another
clipper system dives southeastward out of Canada Sunday afternoon,
with another chance of light snow.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 312 AM CST Sat Feb 27 2021

The only thing in the extended period that could bring some impact
would be the tail end of a weak clipper system Sunday evening. At
this point, any snowfall looks to be less than an inch.

Any falling snow associated with this clipper should end by late
Sunday evening, with no more snow falling by drive time Monday
morning. The only other consideration would be whether wind speeds
would be strong enough to cause any blowing or drifting snow. At
this point, there is cold advection in the low layers, so there may
be a short period of breezy north winds. However, most models and
ensemble solutions show decreasing winds between 06z-12z Monday. So
really don`t anticipate any Monday morning drive issues from this
event.

The remainder of the Monday to Friday period looks to feature either
zonal flow at 500mb, or ridging trying to push in. As far as any
precipitation goes, this entire time looks to be precipitation free.
Highs on Monday still look fairly close to normal, but from Tuesday
through Friday, they are pushing 10 to 20 degrees above early March
normals. So bottom line, quiet and warm.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST Sat Feb 27 2021

Most of the heavier snow bands have moved out of the TAF sites or
weakened, although some 2SM visibility still hanging around KFAR
and flurries continue across most of the northern half of the
area. Ceilings are mostly MVFR although a few spots are right at
the border with IFR. Some slight improvement to the higher end of
MVFR possible later today, then clearing out to VFR overnight.
Winds will remain out of the north to northwest, mostly below 12
kts.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Lynch
LONG TERM...Godon
AVIATION...JR



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