Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 181005

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
305 AM MST Sun Nov 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 304 AM MST Sun Nov 18 2018

The cold front that brought a few inches of snow to the northern
and central mountains of CO and northeast UT yesterday and last
night will continue moving south and east this morning. The front
will weaken and the precipitation over Colorado`s central and
southwest mountains will gradually decrease. Dry northwest flow
aloft will move in this afternoon and tonight and persist through

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 304 AM MST Sun Nov 18 2018

High pressure will be dominating the pattern over the West through
the middle of the upcoming week. So dry conditions with persistent
temperatures near or slightly above normal will continue. This
western ridge seems to be slow to move out due to downstream
blocking by a digging trough over much of eastern NOAM. This
pattern will keep the next weak Pacific storm arriving to SoCal
early this week...well to our South as it drifts by Tuesday night.
Earlier model runs dismissed the strength of the downstream
trough but are now in agreement this blocky pattern will allow the
next upstream system to dig into the West by early Thursday. This
will bring the next chance of precipitation to Eastern Utah by
late morning and to the remainder of the CWA by mid afternoon.
Large scale forcing looks like it will the strongest over our CWA
if this current setup continues which is a positive. Looking at
moisture ensembles and central Pacific teleconnections the
moisture source is the negative and not very impressive. Well
below normal PWAT will be anchored over the region under the
influence of the ridge so again some of the forcing from the storm
will be used for top down saturation. Confidence below normal
attm for the potential of this storm. The next storm in line
continues to show better forcing at it arrives by early next
weekend and will be one to watch over the next several days. So
the good news is that minimal travel impacts are expected over
much of this Holiday break.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 304 AM MST Sun Nov 18 2018

As a weakening cold front moves through central and southwest CO,
KEGE, KASE, KGUC and KMTJ will experience CIGS below ILS
breakpoints through about 16z with occasional MVFR conditions in
snow showers, followed by VFR conditions. VFR conditions will
prevail elsewhere.




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