173
FXUS64 KEWX 031925
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
225 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Scattered to broken cloud cover continues to hold on for most places
and has kept temperatures a bit lower, but with some breaks, we
should see highs warming later this afternoon. Will continue the
Heat Advisory out west for this afternoon. Most of the area should
remain dry today and tonight but there are two possible areas to
watch for possible activity in our CWA. The first is in the
southwestern CWA late this afternoon or evening. Already seeing one
storm well west of the Rio Grande and some of this activity could
push east of the Rio Grande later today. In addition, latest runs of
the HRRR had shown some lower chances of some possible activity in
the Fort Worth CWA clipping out northeastern counties this evening.
Will include a 20 PoP for both of these regions for now for the
overall low chance of rain with the higher probabilities of no rain.
Instability is high and therefore, can`t rule out a strong storm
with anything that does affect the CWA late this afternoon and
evening. Large hail and perhaps damaging winds would be the main
risk associated with any stronger storm.

The remainder of the area overnight will be rain free with warm
temperatures continuing. Should see another round of low clouds for
most of the area with lows in the middle 70s to near 80 degrees.
Mostly dry weather is expected tomorrow with temperatures on the
increase. The low-level thermal profile warms by 2-3C tomorrow which
should lead to a 3-4 degree increase in highs tomorrow compared to
today. Will likely need a Heat Advisory for most of the CWA tomorrow
outside of the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau for the expected
elevated heat index values. Another round of nocturnal stratus and
lows in the middle 70s to near 80 degrees can be expected tomorrow
night into early Wednesday morning.

Heat Precautions: Never leave people and/or pets alone within a
closed car, stay hydrated with plenty of water, wear loose-fitting
and light colored clothing, and take frequent breaks within the
shade and air conditioning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

The hot weather conditions continue on Wednesday through the
extended forecast period. Another Heat Advisory is likely for most
of South-Central Texas on Wednesday as heat index values are
forecast to range from 108 to 112 over parts of the Hill Country,
I-35 corridor and coastal Plains and up to 117 along the Rio Grande.

By Thursday, the subtropical high builds across the desert southwest
and continues through the latter part of the work week into the
weekend. The subtropical ridge is forecast to slowly moves to the
east through next week. In the mean time, several upper short waves
are forecast to move across the southern plains through the period,
and provide enough lift and instability for storms to develop to the
north and east of the local area while we remain dry.

As far as temperatures go, they are going to be slightly above the
normal climate values (95-100) across the Hill Country, I-35 and
coastal plains and well-above climate normals for areas along the
Rio Grande where afternoon highs could range from the 100 to 106
degrees.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Cloud cover is holding on, but is in the process of lifting into VFR
categories. Should see VFR continue for the remainder of the
afternoon and evening hours. Another round of MVFR is expected
tonight as low-level moisture continues to be in place. Most
locations will remain rain free, but there is an outside shot of a
shower or thunderstorm impacting AUS this evening. Overall
probabilities were too low to mention in the TAFs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77  97  77  96 /  30  10  10  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76  97  78  96 /  20  10  10  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     77  99  77  99 /  10  10  10  10
Burnet Muni Airport            74  95  75  94 /  20  10  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           81 106  81 109 /  10   0   0  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        75  96  76  95 /  30  10  10  10
Hondo Muni Airport             78 102  78 101 /  10  10  10  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        76  98  77  97 /  10  10  10  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   78  95  78  94 /  20   0  10  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       78 100  78  99 /  10  10  10  10
Stinson Muni Airport           79 101  79 101 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Atascosa-Dimmit-Frio-
Maverick-Zavala.

&&

$$

Short-Term...29
Long-Term...17
Aviation...29