730
FXUS62 KFFC 241843
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
243 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024


...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 242 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across north
Georgia amid diurnal heating. Additional development is expected
through the afternoon as remnant boundaries as well as an MCV
associated with a decaying convective complex over northern Alabama
push into the area amid SBCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. The strongest
storms could produce damaging wind gusts as well as instances of
hail through this evening. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible
given PWATs over 1.5-1.7", particularly if any localized training of
storms occurs.

While some convection may linger into the evening, a general
decrease in convective coverage is expected during the overnight
hours with loss of heating. However, uncertainty increases by
Saturday morning as some CAMs (notably the HRRR) continue to
indicate the potential for an MCS to approach north Georgia. These
mesoscale features are notoriously difficult to forecast with regard
to timing and placement, so the Saturday forecast will greatly
depend on this potential.

For this forecast, chance PoPs were maintained across north GA
through the morning with a diurnal increase in PoPs into the
afternoon. However, if more widespread convection indeed does affect
the area in the morning, this could serve to lessen afternoon
development, at least across portions of north Georgia. The severe
threat would associated with any morning convective complex would
likely be fairly limited given a less-unstable environment, though a
threat for strong wind gusts can`t be ruled out. Any additional
afternoon convection forming along remnant boundaries could pose a
more sustained severe threat if sufficient instability is realized
(depending on evolution of morning convection).

RW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday morning through next Thursday)
Issued at 242 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Cold front still on schedule for early next week.

Fast flow will likely remain in place across the CWA through early
next week. The mid level flow remains very conducive to strong
shortwaves/MCV/MCS features to move east within the flow through the
period. There are some slight differences within the 500mb pattern
between the NAM and GFS for Sunday. The GFS has a slightly stronger
shortwave moving across northern GA during the day, while the NAM
has some slight shortwave ridging. Will keep the highest pops along
the GA/TN/NC border and within the lower/mid chance category where
any shortwave ridging would be weakest.

A trough looks to move through the SE states later Monday into
Tuesday. This will be coincident with a frontal passage. There will
be plenty of surface instability and lapse rates will be pretty
steep. Shear looks to be marginal to decent, averaging between 35-
45kt. Do think convection could be a bit more organized as the front
moves through.

High pressure will build in behind the front for the remainder of
the week. Fairly quiet weather is expected.

NListemaa

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Largely VFR conditions are anticipated through the TAF period. Sct
cu in the 4-6 kft range will characterize the afternoons. Patchy
MVFR cigs are possible 13-16Z Saturday, though widespread are not
expected. Sct SHRA/TSRA are favored, mainly at ATL area and AHN
sites, through this evening. While coverage is generally expected
to lessen overnight, iso SHRA/TSRA can`t be ruled out overnight.
Scattered SHRA/TSRA is more favored again by Saturday, especially
after 16-18Z. Winds outside of convection will remain W to SW at
3-7 kts.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on SHRA/TSRA timing and morning cigs.
High confidence on winds.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          66  89  67  91 /  30  30  20  30
Atlanta         68  88  69  91 /  30  40  30  20
Blairsville     61  83  62  85 /  50  40  30  40
Cartersville    66  87  67  91 /  40  40  30  20
Columbus        70  89  69  92 /  20  30  20  10
Gainesville     66  87  68  90 /  40  30  20  30
Macon           69  90  69  92 /  20  30  10  10
Rome            65  88  67  91 /  50  50  30  20
Peachtree City  67  88  67  91 /  30  30  20  20
Vidalia         71  91  71  94 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....NListemaa
AVIATION...RW