Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
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122 FXUS62 KFFC 310817 AFDFFC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 417 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 ...Morning Area Forecast Discussion... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 410 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 Surface high pressure and ridging aloft will keep conditions dry today. Relatively dense mid-level and upper-level clouds are expected (downstream of clusters of convection over the ArkLaMiss), so have used slightly lower (cooler) temperature guidance. That said, temps will still climb into the 80s across much of the area. The exception looks to be portions of northeast Georgia, mainly the higher terrain. Have also used slightly lower (drier) dew point guidance given drier trends this past evening and overnight. As a result, a portion of east-central Georgia has forecasted relative humidity of 25% or lower for a couple hours this afternoon along with finer fuel moisture anticipated to be 8% or lower. This is not quite Fire Danger Statement territory (which is 4 hours or more of said criteria) but will need to keep an eye on relative humidity observations across this area during the day. Cloud cover (especially in the lower-levels and mid-levels) will increase overnight into tomorrow (Saturday) morning as a shortwave trough approaches from the west. Have slight chance to chance PoPs (15% to 35%) slowly spreading in from west to east as moisture associated with the shortwave increases. Some of the CAMs show some semblance of a decaying MCS pushing in from Alabama, so that will be something to watch. That said, there is no appreciable progged bulk shear across north and central Georgia, so am not expecting organized storms. Dense cloud cover looks to prevent much in the way of SBCAPE in the afternoon, and both MUCAPE and MLCAPE are generally forecasted to be less than 500 J/kg. So, while isolated thunderstorms will be possible, the threat for severe storms is low at this time. SPC has the western half or so of Georgia in a General Thunder risk, which seems appropriate. Saturday morning lows will be in the upper 50s to mid-60s, and afternoon highs will be in the 80s outside of the mountains. Martin && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 410 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 The upper ridge will shift E of the area by Saturday night as a weak shortwave moves across the OH Valley and clips N GA. At the surface, a weak front will approach the area from the NW, bringing an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity to the W by late Sat afternoon and evening. Likely PoPs will be confined to the NW late Saturday night and Sunday morning, with isolated to scattered showers and storms elsewhere. Scattered thunderstorms will persist into Sunday for most of the area. Early next week, the upper flow will become much weaker and fairly zonal, with weak disturbances passing mostly N of the area. This will lead to more of a diurnal summertime thunderstorm pattern slightly favoring the N half of the area. By mid to late weak, the upper pattern becomes more troughy over the OH Valley once again. This pattern will support a surface front which is presently forecast to sweep through the area late Thursday and early Friday. More uniform rain chances are expected ahead of the front, with drier conditions behind the front on Friday. At this time, widespread severe wx is not anticipated. Temperatures are expected to be near to slightly above normal, with low temperatures a bit farther from the norm. /SEC SEC && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 122 AM EDT Fri May 31 2024 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Observations show that winds at ATL have shifted to NNE/NE at this time. Winds will be E at all sites through the day around 3-8 kts. Current FEW/SCT cirrus will give way to increasing mid/upper clouds this morning and afternoon. Not convinced that a true Cu field will develop this afternoon, but SCT mid-level clouds (around 7 kft and higher) are likely. //ATL Confidence...06Z Update... High confidence on all elements. Martin && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Athens 82 57 82 63 / 0 0 10 20 Atlanta 83 64 82 66 / 0 0 20 40 Blairsville 74 56 73 59 / 0 0 10 40 Cartersville 83 62 82 64 / 0 0 20 50 Columbus 87 66 86 67 / 0 10 20 30 Gainesville 79 59 79 64 / 0 0 10 30 Macon 86 61 85 66 / 0 0 10 10 Rome 84 63 82 64 / 0 10 30 60 Peachtree City 84 63 83 64 / 0 0 20 40 Vidalia 87 62 85 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Martin LONG TERM....SEC AVIATION...Martin