Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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555 FXUS63 KFGF 261436 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 936 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Probability for more than 0.25 inch of rain Sunday night into Monday is 40-50 percent, 10-20 percent for more than 0.50 inch - Probability for more than 0.50 inch of rain 48 hour period Thursday and Friday is 50 percent and probability of more than 1 inch is 20 percent. && .UPDATE... Issued at 936 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Weak 700 and 500mb waves continue to push east into western North Dakota this morning with weak shower activity west of Bismarck currently. Steeping lapse rates at the sfc with diurnal heating and the weak forcing form these waves should promote continued shower and even weak thunderstorm activity as these move east through the morning and early afternoon. UPDATE Issued at 654 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Mid cloud area from Jamestown to Ada moving east so upped sky in this area. Otherwise skies clear. Some very shallow ground fog at a few spots but short lived. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 324 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Compared by the past few days, the upcoming forecast is pretty quiet. Starting off with a mainly clear sky across the north with temps 35-40. An area of mid clouds moving east and located between Fargo and Bismarck. Then some high/mid clouds in our far southeast with wave moving thru central MN. Any precipitation remains south/east of our fcst area. Light winds all areas, and light winds will be around all day. Our next chance for showers and isolated t-storms will come from a 500 mb short wave moving into western Montana. There is also a weaker short wave ahead of this in far eastern Montana. This eastern short wave is associated with some mid level showers and there are additional scattered showers farther west into western Montana. But overall moisture with this system is mid level based and forcing is quite weak. So impacts in terms of rainfall amounts will be minimal. Look for chance of showers to move into DVL basin this aftn and chances spread east thru the evening with first short wave in eastern Montana. The main short wave moves thru E ND/NW MN Monday morning with the highest rain chances overnight tonight into Monday morning. For this event prob 24 hour qpf from NBM 4.2 from 00z Mon to 00z Tue show 40-50 pct chances for 0.25 or more inch across the area with 10-20 pct chances for more than 0.50 inch. Instability is minimal, but will maintain a slight chance of T-storm mention. Mild today ahead of the system despite light winds. Temps in the mid 60s to low 70s, which is nearing normal for late May. Tuesday will see clearing but a cooler than normal day with highs in the 60s with a north wind to 25 mph. Sunny and milder on Wednesday with highs nearing 70 as upper level ridge moves in ahead of next 500 mb trough which will bring a band of showers and t-storms across the area from west to east Thursday midday- aftn into Friday. Thursdays afternoon will see a narrow zone of MUCAPE in the 500 j/kg range into central ND enough for scattered t-storms to mix in with the showers. Machine learning progs do have a least a low chance for a strong storm into central ND with that zone of higher instability. 48 hour probability for more than 0.50 inch range 12z Thu to 12z Sat are in the 50 percent range with probs for more than 1 inch in the 20 percent range, focused on the Red River valley. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 654 AM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Winds today light and variable, thus wasn`t able to put in a consistent wind direction today. Speeds will be 5 kts or less. Increasing mid clouds gradually thru the day into tonight with better chances for showers this evening and overnight. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...TT DISCUSSION...Riddle AVIATION...Riddle