Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 250532
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1132 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS BEST REFLECTIVITIES ALONG ROUGHLY A BOTTINEAU
TO RUGBY TO HARVEY TO STEELE LINE...WITH LESSER RETURNS OVER MOST
OF SOUTHEASTERN ND. WE ARE GETTING GROUND TRUTH IN THE SOUTHWEST
BUT NORTHERN VALLEY ECHOES ARE CLOUDS ONLY...AS NORTHEAST FLOW IS
KEEPING BNDRY LYR DRY. 02Z RUC NICELY DEPICTS THE EASTWARD EXTENT
OF THE SNOW...WHICH IS BEING HAMPERED BY THE NE FLOW. HAVE UPDATED
POPS WITH RUC GUIDANCE AND MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN THE SRN
VALLEY...WHERE RUC WAS A BIT LOW WITH POPS. CONTINUE TO EXPECT
MOST OF NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF CWA TO RECEIVE LITTLE IF NO
SNOWFALL TONIGHT...AND ONE TO TWO INCHES IN PORTIONS OF EAST
CNTRL AND SOUTHEASTERN ND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...LIGHT SNOW FALLING OVER WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA...WITH SOME OBS OF RAIN
IN CNTRL ND EARLIER ON...WHICH HAS NOW CHANGED TO SNOW. MAIN
ISSUE TO WATCH TONIGHT IS EASTWARD EXTENT OF SNOW...AS CURRENT POP
GRIDS KEEP LIKELIES JUST WEST OF GRAND FORKS AND DO BRING IT IN TO
THE FARGO AREA. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADJUSTMENTS UNTIL 00Z NAM
COMES IN AS FCST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE RIGHT NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE BAND OF PCPN MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT. 12Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUED TO
PUSH BACK WESTWARD WHERE THIS BAND WILL FALL AND IT APPEARS THAT
SOME OF THE 18Z GUIDANCE MAY BE EVEN LIGHTER WITH THE EXPECTED
AMOUNTS. AS OF MID AFTERNOON MOST OF THE LIGHT PCPN WAS FALLING
BETWEEN KMOT AND KJMS AND WAS SLIDING SE. SOME OF THIS LIGHT PCPN
DID EXTEND INTO THE FAR WESTERN FA. LOOKING AT SFC TEMPS...THEY
WERE 30F AT KDVL AND 32F AT KJMS AND 37F AT GWINNER. SFC OBS WERE
REPORTING LIGHT SNOW AT CARRINGTON AND FZDZ/LIGHT SNOW AT KJMS
WITH THE WARMEST SFC AIR AT GWINNER (ALTHOUGH NO PCPN YET). WITH
THE CONTINUED COOL ADVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ANY
MIX ACROSS THE SW FA WILL BE BRIEF. 18Z NAM COMING IN EVEN WEAKER
WITH EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS...WITH LESS THAN INCH ACROSS THE WEST
AND A DUSTING CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. ALL SAID THIS EVENT
IS MUCH WEAKER AND FURTHER WEST THAN EXPECTED. WILL KEEP SOME
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY
MORNING BEFORE THE SYSTEM EXITS OFF TO THE SE. ANOTHER WEAK LIGHT
SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE NORTHEAST FA BEGINNING SUN
NIGHT. AS THE SFC LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH AND EAST...PRETTY DECENT
WARMING OCCURS AGAIN. THEREFORE COULD EASILY SEE RISING TEMPS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

WILL LINGER THE LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN THE NORTHEAST FA ON MONDAY.
WEST TO NW WINDS CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH VERY MILD AIR MOVING BACK
IN. KEPT HIGHS ON MONDAY ABOVE GUIDANCE TEMPS. STAYS QUIET MON
NIGHT INTO TUE. MUCH LIGHTER SFC WINDS ON TUE MAY KEEP TEMPS DOWN
A LITTLE BUT MORE LIKELY WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER. EITHER WAY
WILL STICK WITH MILD TEMPS INTO TUE.

FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH SAT...THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED WILL START
OUT WARM WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW WED
NIGHT BEHIND A COOL FRONT...THEN AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY NEXT SAT...THAT COULD
MEAN AN END TO THE MILD TEMPS WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

NORTHEAST FLOW SET UP AT DVL AND CIGS HAVE RISEN INTO UPPER MVFR
RANGE...WITH ALL OTHER SITES IN THE VALLEY AND NORTHWEST MN VFR.
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW AT DVL...MORE LIKELY
AT FAR...THAT COULD BRING VSBYS INTO THE 3 SM TO 5 SM RANGE. OTHER
THAN THAT...LOW VFR DECK WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUN AFTN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/DK
AVIATION...SPEICHER






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