Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 312333
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
633 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MAIN BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION IS MOVING EAST OF THE REGION. WE
HAVE TONED DOWN POPS A BIT THROUGH 6Z...AND DRY THEREAFTER.
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

AS OF 20Z...THE REGION IS IN A RELATIVELY QUIET PERIOD BETWEEN
UPPER WAVES (ALTHOUGH AREAS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN MAY BE
PERSISTING). THE NEXT WAVE WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...AND SPREAD SHOWERS INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FA.
MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COVERAGE WILL DISSIPATE AS THE STRONGER
ACTIVITY INITIATES ACROSS NEBRASKA/IOWA. LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
INDICATES MLCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KBJI
TO KBWP. HOWEVER...MLCIN IS STILL 60-80 J/KG...AND ANTICIPATE THIS
AIRMASS TO BE EAST OF THE FA (AS MORE STABLE/DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN
FROM THE WEST) BY THE TIME MLCIN IS WEAK ENOUGH FOR THUNDER
INITIATION. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD SHOWER/STORM THIS
EVENING...BUT CHANCES APPEAR VERY LOW (AND HIGH RES MODELS AGREE).

MUCH OF TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER...THE REGION DOES
REMAIN IN GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND THERE SHOULD BE WEAK
UPPER WAVES ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT
THUNDER CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN MODELS AGREE ON
A STRONGER UPPER WAVE THAT WOULD INTERACT WITH WEAK INSTABILITY
FROM DAYTIME HEATING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MUCH LIKE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...WEAK UPPER
WAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN COULD LEAD TO PRECIP...BUT MOST
AREAS SHOULD BE DRY A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS MODELS INDICATE A WARM FRONTAL TYPE
BOUNDARY LIFTING INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WHICH MAY LEAD TO
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIP FOR MID
WEEK CHANCES OF CONVECTION. BOTH MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER
LOW/TROUGH OVER SRN SASK AROUND 06Z THU MOVE INTO WRN ONTARIO BY
00Z FRI. SW FLOW OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION TO NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES WED NIGHT THROUGH
THU NIGHT. NW FLOW THEN RETURNS WITH A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE...BRINGING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS TO THE REGION. THIS DRY
PERIOD SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY FRI AND CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WKND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

EXPECT MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH PERHAPS SOME LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS
IN THE EAST THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W/NW AT ALL
SITES OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE ON LABOR DAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
FAIRLY LOW TOMORROW...SO EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUDS
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS OR PERHAPS SOME
ISOLATED THUNDER TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT HAVE NOT MENTIONED FOR
NOW WITH FAIRLY LIMITED COVERAGE EXPECTED.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK





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