Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 281247
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
647 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 647 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Band of snow that was trying to develop over the far southeastern
counties has mostly fizzled, as all sites in or upstream are back
up to 10 mi with no snow reported and radar returns have all but
disappeared. Web cams on snow plows in the region also show very
little snow accumulation. Thus, lowered POPs and precip amounts by
quite a bit for the rest of the morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 317 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Snow chances this morning and again late tonight will be the main
forecast issue for the period.

The main upper trough will be well to the west for much of the
day, but with southwesterly flow aloft and various weak shortwaves
moving through, it will not be entirely tranquil today. One such
shortwave is helping push an inverted trough through our
southeastern counties currently. A narrow band has been developing
on radar for the last few hours, and is well correlated with 700mb
frontogenesis. However, with high dew point depressions there is
some question on how much is reaching the ground. Most impressive
radar returns and confirmed snow reaching the ground are in SD
currently, which fits where the 700mb frontogenesis and negative
EPV are coinciding. The RAP brings this frontogensis band into
Grant county during the 12-15Z time frame this morning. Will
continue to keep fairly high POPs, and will keep an eye on the
band as it moves into our counties to see if visibility in
Wheaton, MN drops down to indicate heavy snow and if plow cams go
out later this morning. Will monitor in case a meso band gets
going and anything like an SPS is needed.

Further north from our far southeast corner, today should see a
break with weak surface ridging between systems. Highs will stay
in the teens in the northwest but lower 30s southeast. Tonight,
the main upper trough starts to move into the Plains. An embedded
shortwave in the main trough will arrive in western ND by the
early morning hours on Wednesday. The models all keep this evening
quiet, but some snow will start to move into the Devils Lake Basin
after 06Z. Think that temps in the northern counties will drop off
quickly to the single digits this evening before steadying off as
clouds/precip move into the area.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 317 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Wednesday and Thursday...The upper trough moving through will
bring a chance for snow to a broad area on Wednesday, but there is
good agreement on amounts remaining very light. Will have to watch
another shortwave digging down Wednesday night, as that system
will move through our southwestern counties. There has been some
indication of good mid level frontogensis which could bring some
banding, although the strength of the frontogenesis has backed off
a bit with the most recent model runs. Will continue to keep an
eye on the system however. Some colder air will come down for
Thursday as northwesterly flow and surface high pressure set up,
pushing temps below seasonal averages.

Friday to Monday night...A rather quiet end of the week and weekend
to give way to increasing precipitation chances Sunday night into
Monday. 500mb zonal flow will transition to southwest ahead of
approaching wave at the end of the weekend. With respect to sensible
weather, warm air advection ongoing Friday morning will bring weak
light snow chances to the northern half of the FA as temperatures
recover nicely from lows in the single digits above and below zero
in the north and low teens in the south to highs ranging from 30F to
40F by the afternoon. Southerly winds will turn to the southwest for
Saturday with a SFC low tracking well north of the FA allowing
thermal ridge to lift into the FA with highs ranging from mid 30s
north to mid 40s south. Similar thermal profile on Sunday with
clouds will lead to highs a couple degrees cooler however still
above normal for early March.

Sunday night into Monday night there continues to be a signal
somewhere across the northern plains for a system to create impacts
as a robust 500mb wave emerges from the Northern Rockies. EC has
been more consistent with the system, upper and SFC features,
strengthening as it moves quickly east and settles over the great
lakes region. As a result a rain snow mix will be possible Sunday
night into Monday with most likely areas to see snowfall across the
northern and eastern zones.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 647 AM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

All sites are VFR except KBJI which has 1500 ft ceilings. A few
lingering flurries at KDVL seemed to have finally disappeared.
Think that KBJI should recover to VFR by mid-day and all sites
will be VFR until another system coming in brings lower ceilings
tonight. All sites should be down to MVFR by mid-evening, with
some IFR not out of the question at the end of the period. Some
snow will begin to move into the Devils Lake Basin late but will
keep a mention out of the TAF for the time being. North winds at
near 12 kts will decrease below 10 kts tonight.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/JK
AVIATION...JR


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