Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 020853
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
353 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. 00Z MODELS
IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND WILL UTILIZE A BLEND OF THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF
ALONG WITH CAM GUIDANCE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SEVERAL
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVES THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION. ACTUAL TIMING AND
TRACK OF THESE FEATURES...AND THEIR INTERACTIONS WITH EACH OTHER
WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW THIS EVENT UNFOLDS. INDIVIDUAL CAMS
AND CAM ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL INDICATE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS. WITH THAT SAID...A GENERAL IDEA DOES EMERGE FROM ALL OF
THESE SOLUTIONS. THE ACTIVITY WITHIN THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AND
THE ACTIVITY ACROSS SE ND WILL EACH SLOWLY PROPAGATE TO THE E/NE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
DECREASE DURING THIS TIME...SO STRONG STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. A STRONGER UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE
REGION TODAY...DEVELOPING A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN ND...SETTING
UP A SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION (WHICH WILL BE THE NORTHERN
LIMIT FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL). ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER AND HEATING
UNCERTAIN...MOST GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS SFC BOUNDARY.
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASING...THE INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL (SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS) WILL BE IN PLACE. THE MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR SVR POTENTIAL HINGES ON TIMING OF THE SFC LOW/COLD
FRONT AND WHEREVER THIS LIKELY TRIGGER IS BY MID-AFTERNOON. CAM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
(USING UPDRAFT HELICITY). CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR SEVERE
STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND MOVE
INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE EVENING...BUT WEAKEN TOWARD
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. LESS INTENSE STORMS...BUT MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WEAK CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RETURN
FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL
BRING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
ACROSS THE AREA. THE WAVE DEPARTS THE AREA BY MONDAY...WITH A RETURN
TO WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

STILL QUESTION REVOLVES AROUND TIMING OF CONVECTION THRU THE PD
AND CIGS. HRRR CIG FCST SHOWS PATCHY MVFR CIGS NEAR THE RAIN AREAS
THROUGH LATE MORNING BUT OVERALL VFR. SOME MODEL MOS STATISTICS
SUGGEST LOWER CIGS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING NR 12Z TUES AND AFTERWARDS.
FOR NOW KEPT IT MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...HOPKINS
AVIATION...RIDDLE



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