Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 200935
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
435 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

UPPER LEVEL FLOW PROGRESSION TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY THIS PERIOD. LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST MAN. UPPER LOW FORECAST
TO CARVE OUT A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. LOW FORECAST TO
DRIFT EAST TO NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LOBES OF VORTICITY TO ROTATE AROUND SYSTEM. SURFACE LOW OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN FORECAST TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MORNING.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL JET DIVING INTO FAR WESTERN
ND AND WILL REMAIN ACROSS ND THROUGH 84 HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER
DRIES OUT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

GOOD MIXING EXPECTED TODAY WITH ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES TO NEAR 700
HPA. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH OR BETTER
POSSIBLE. WILL ISSUE AN WIND ADVISORY TODAY FOR VALLEY COUNTIES AND
WESTWARD. WILL CANCEL FIRE WEATHER WATCH AS RHS NOT IN CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...LOOK FOR GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS AS
UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO MOVES AND A WEAK 500 MB RIDGE MOVES
INTO THE N PLAINS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL ENTER
EASTERN ND AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO THE NRN ROCKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

CIGS AND WIND MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VFR CIGS
CONTINUE FROM VALLEY WEST WITH SOME SPOTTY MVFR CIGS WITHIN
VALLEY(GFK/FAR). FARTHER EAST CIGS TO REMAIN MVFR WITH IFR OVER
THE FAR EAST(BJI). AS UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST VFR CIGS SHOULD BECOME
MORE PREVALENT FROM VALLEY WEST WITH SOME CLEARING PSBL DVL
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. FAR EAST MORE UNCERTAIN. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATING VFR CIGS BUT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTERNOON. ANY PCPN LOOKS
TO SPOTTY TO MENTION IN EASTERN TAF SITES. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TOMORROW AM AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AT ADVISORY LEVELS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER




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