343
FXUS63 KFGF 281106
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
606 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain expected Thursday across the region with the probability
  of more than 0.50" around 30% in the northern valley
  increasing to 60% for the southern valley. Probs for an 1" or
  more are less than 10% north and around 20% in the south.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 602 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

A few lingering showers are pushing southeast this morning in
the Fosston and Park Rapids and Wahepton areas. This activity
will clear the FA over the next couple hours. In its wake a
period of clear skies will give way to a deck of stratus clouds
which will impact the days temps along with a north wind.
Forecast accounts for all this and will adjust to match the
current trends.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Overall forecast remains similar to much of the month of May
with several chances for showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast over the next 7 days. Below normal temp regime is
expected to gradually warm to closer to normal values as we
move into June this weekend with highs climbing into the 70s.

Model ensembles remain in good agreement with the forecast for
much of the week and into the weekend. Another couple days of
below normal temps, especially today as highs struggle under
mostly cloudy skies and northerly winds with temps in the upper
50s and low 60s. SFC high pressure will track across the area
tonight with skies clearing and winds lightening temps will cool
efficiently with the favorable radiative cooling environment.
With another night of lows around 40, cooler in the typically
cold spots in NW MN where winds will be the weakest for much of
the night. Probability of temps less than 36 were less than 2%
so will refrain from any frost headlines.

Wednesday will see upper level ridging initiate a south wind
and warmer temps return to the area before the next round of
rain comes into the area for Thursday and at least the first
part of Friday. Southwesterly flow aloft combined with a few
hundred joules of ML cape will bring a band of showers with
embedded thunder across the area during the day Thursday, which
may linger across portions of MN zones into Friday morning. PoPs
currently around 90% with this feature as its a high confidence
of occurrence. As stated in the key messages, the probability
of more than 0.50" is around 30% in the northern valley
increasing to 60% for the southern valley. Probs for an 1" or
more are less than 10% north and around 20% in the south.

With the SW flow continuing there remains multiple episodes of
PoPs. Ensemble guidance depicts much higher spread in a second
wave Friday night into Saturday lowering pops to 20 to 30% of
occurrence. Slightly higher chances with another wave at the end
of the weekend and into next week with PoPs at 40 to 50% for
Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 602 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

MVFR Cigs quickly sliding south across eastern ND and will
impact all TAF sites this morning between 12 and 15Z. VFR
conditions are expected to develop this afternoon as the MVFR
cigs gradually lift and SCT out. This evening and overnight will
see light winds and clearing skies with high pressure moving
across the area. North winds today in the 10 to 15kt range.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
DISCUSSION...JK
AVIATION...JK