Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 281741
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1241 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Isolated showers have developed between FAR-DTL associated with
weak boundary and pocket of deeper moisture. Instability remains
limited so will continue with isolated shra mention this afternoon
over SE Nd into neighboring west Central Mn. Temperatures good.

UPDATE Issued at 948 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Short range high resolution model guidance continues to show
potential for some light showers over southern valley region near
weak surface boundary which extends into eastern SD. Instability
minimal so will keep as showers. Adjusted pops in this area
otherwise no other changes.

UPDATE Issued at 659 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

No change at this update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Northwest flow aloft is forecast to be across the area through 84
hours. Water vapor loop indicated quite a few short waves upstream.
Short waves were located over northwest SD, s central ND, southwest
MT, northwest MT, and southwest BC. Most of the short waves are
expected to move south and west of the forecast area.

Some cooling at mid levels and a pocket of moist air at low levels
in the southern Red River Valley may produce clouds and light
showers over the southwest zones for today. Will add low pops
south/southwest for today. Blowoff from precip over central ND was
obscuring lower clouds over the southern Valley on the fog loop.

Surface ridge to move over the area Fri morning with return flow
occurring thereafter.

BC short wave forecast to move across the area Sat. With afternoon
heating, short wave may produce some showers over the Valley.

Low level jet forecast to increase Sat night over ND in response to
upper trough moving into southwest Canada.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

The extended period starts off as unsettled as a surface system
crosses the area. Southerly flow ahead of the system will see warmer
temperatures and increasing moisture. With plenty of
instability...expect increasing chances for showers and storms
across the area for Sunday afternoon thru Monday.  Behind the
system...cooler and a bit drier air will return to the area.
However...the upper pattern becomes more zonal...and a series of
impulses will propagate through the flow bringing additional chances
for scattered showers or storms through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Will see light showers with VFR CIGS vcnty Far this afternoon
which is near weak surface boundary. Remainder of the fa will see
SCT-BKN Cu this afternoon dissipating this evening. VFR through
the period.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Voelker
SHORT TERM...Hoppes
LONG TERM...Hopkins
AVIATION...Voelker



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