Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KFGF 011541
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
941 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

LITTLE TO UPDATE AS ARCTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER THE N DVL BSN WILL TRAVERSE TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY.
CURRENT WIND CHILL HEADLINES REMAIN VALID AND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
17Z AND REEVALUATE. HOW WARM WE GET TODAY A BIT OF A CONCERN AS
POOR MIXING WILL BE OFFSET BY THE FULL SUN. THE AREAS WITHOUT A
SNOWPACK MAY WARM MORE THAN CURRENT FORECAST. WILL MONITOR SUN
ANGLE STILL FAIRLY WEAK. THE NEXT QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH TEMPS
DROP AFTER SUNDOWN BEFORE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC
HIGH SETS UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS
THROUGH THIS MORNING. PREFER THE GFS WITH NO MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES
OVERALL.

FOR TODAY...WE WILL EXPAND THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY INTO THE SOUTH
THROUGH 17Z...WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 25 TO 30 BELOW SOUTH AND 30
TO 35 BELOW IN THE NORTH THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
BY AFTERNOON...COUPLED WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL HELP TEMPS
SLOWLY RISE. EVEN WITH SUNSHINE EXPECT TEMPS TO STRUGGLE INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW NORTH TO SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN AREAS AND WARM
ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN THE WEST. IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH THE
COLDEST READINGS IN THE EAST...WITH ALL AREAS IN THE 5 BELOW TO 15
BELOW RANGE.

ON MONDAY...THERE SHOULD BE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH WAA AND A
SHORTWAVE. THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRIES AT LEAST IN THE
NORTH...BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST GIVEN THE
VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE TEENS FOR
MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...IT WILL BE DRY WITH TEMPS NOT QUITE AS COLD AS
RECENT NIGHT GIVEN SOME CLOUD COVER.

ON TUE...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE FAR SOUTHWEST WITH THE
CHANCE FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW. THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE
TO PUSH ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY MEASURABLE SNOW.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...AN ARCTIC SFC HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH VERY COLD HIGHS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. HOWEVER...TEMPS SHOULD QUICKLY REBOUND ON THURSDAY AS THE
HIGH MOVES EAST AND WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY.
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
ZONAL...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR TEMP MODIFICATION. HOWEVER...THE LOCATION
OF THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT WILL IMPACT TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND.
THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS A STRONGER BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE REGION WITH
A COLD SFC HIGH CLOSER BY TO THE NORTH...WHILE THE 00Z GFS INDICATES
A WEAKER BAROCLINIC ZONE DISPLACED NORTH. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE
IN DAILY TEMPS IS LOW. THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT PRECIP AS WEAK SYSTEMS SLIDE ALONG THE THERMAL GRADIENT...
ALTHOUGH DIFFER ON TIMING AND LOCATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH NORTHERLY WINDS DECREASING BY THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN SHIFTING SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022-023-027>030.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...DK








USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.