Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 030315
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1015 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS ARE EXITING THE FAR EASTERN FCST AREA WITH
SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO KENORA-DRYDEN ONTARIO AREA. OTHERWISE SKIES
GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND.

FOR TONIGHT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO CROSS REGION. SHEAR A BIT STRONGER WITH SIMILAR
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS TO YESTERDAY ALTHOUGH COVERAGE MUCH MORE
SPOTTY AT THIS POINT. AGAIN CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG
STORM INTO EARLY EVENING. DID VERY LITTLE TAMPERING WITH POPS
AS MOST CONVECTION THIS EVENING WILL BE OVER THE NE HALF OF THE FA
AND AGAIN SHOULD DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WITH MODEST WARM
ADVECTION OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE AS COOL.

MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE PAC NW WILL
CROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES REACHING THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY
WED EVENING. ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS WILL HELP ORGANIZE SURFACE
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH E-W BOUNDARY THROUGH SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MN. 30KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT
DEEP MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES INCREASING
TO OVER 1.5 INCHES BY AFTERNOON. WITH MINIMAL CIN AND CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE VCNTY BOUNDARY
DURING THE AFTERNOON LIFTING NNE. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS SUFFICIENT
FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. THERE WILL LIKELY BE CLOUD COVER
HOWEVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO RECOVER CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BEST
CHANCES FROM FAR SE ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN. ANOTHER RAIN AREA TO
WATCH WILL BE ALONG NORTHWARD EXTENDING BOUNDARY FROM E SD SURFACE
LOW TO SECONDARY LOW OVER S MB. BASED ON LOW POSITION FAVORED RAIN
AREA WILL BE ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH MORE SPOTTY PCPN
SOUTHWARD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LOW PRESSURE WILL PROPAGATE EAST THURSDAY WITH POSSIBLE DRY
SLOTTING THROUGH ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH. WITH WRAP AROUND COLD
ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH COULD SEE A FAIRLY RESPECTABLE THERMAL
GRADIENT FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE FA. WILL LIKELY BE BREEZY/WINDY
FROM VALLEY WEST DURING THE DAY.

ANY LINGERING RAIN WILL END ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY WITH SUB AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...VOID OF ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA...WILL KEEP A DRY AND COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH FRI AND SAT NIGHT
COULD POTENTIALLY DROP INTO THE 40S...LIMITING DAY TIME HIGHS TO
AROUND THE 70 MARK. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL SUNDAY AND
TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LEE SIDE LOW PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL OPEN UP THE GULF FOR
SOME MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA AND GIVE THE AREA ITS NEXT
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 724 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AND
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE
TURNING EAST-SOUTHEAST AHD OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE MOVING
INTO EASTERN MONTANA/SASKATCHEWAN LATER TONIGHT. AT LEAST THRU WED
AFTN KEPT TAF STIES VFR WITH INCREASING CIRRUS WED. LOOKS LIKE
TSTM THREAT DURING THE DAY PRIOR TO 00Z MORE SO IN WCNTRL-CNTRL MN
AND IN WESTERN ND. MAIN THREAT FOR OUR LOCAL AREA FOR ANY STORMS
MOSTLY AFTER 00Z THU.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...SPEICHER/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE





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