Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 280859
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
359 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

150+M HEIGHT FALLS FORECAST OVER SOUTHERN MAN AND ONTARIO FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG MT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST SASK FORECAST TO DEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH 18Z THEN MOVE INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 48
HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF OVER THE AREA
AND OVER 2 INCHES OVER EASTERN SD. EAST-WEST CROSS SECTION INDICATES
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOIST AIR SHIFTS EAST TODAY AS DRY SLOT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT STRONGEST STORMS TO THE SOUTH...OVER SD OR ON
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CURRENT LINE.  MAY KEEP THE SAME TREND FOR
TODAY. LINE CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN ADIABATIC LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESSENTIALLY THROUGH WED EVENING EXCEPTING 12Z WED. WINDS TO 60 KNOTS
IN THIS LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST
ZONES. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MAY NEED A HIGH WIND WARNING NORTHWEST
ZONES...WILL LET NEXT SHIFT DETERMINE IF NEEDED. WINDY YET WED
MORNING AND DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP EXPECTED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES TUE
NIGHT AND WED.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
THU AFTER AND EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE PRECIP OVER NORTHERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

FOR FRI THROUGH MON...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES IN NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH
THE BEST WAVE THIS WEEKEND. TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY
CONVECTION WILL HINGE ON IF WAVES COME THROUGH AT MAX HEATING...SO
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON WHAT DAY COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF POTENTIAL T THROUGH TAF SITES
THEN INCREASING WINDS LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT FEEL
FAR HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL WITH UNCERTAINTY CONTINUING AT OTHER
SITES. LATER TOMORROW DVL BASIN WILL BE SEEING VERY STRONG WINDS
DEVELOPING WITH GUSTS HIGHER THAN 45KTS PSBL.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052-054.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ001-004-005-007-008-013-014.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...VOELKER


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