Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 210422
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1122 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER SOUTH OF KJMS CONTINUE TO
SAG INTO SD. HOWEVER THE BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER CENTRAL
ND CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THEREFORE WILL
MAINTAIN HIGHER PCPN CHANCES ACROSS OUR WESTERN FA PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT THEN SLOWLY EXPAND THEM TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY
LATE NIGHT...LIKELY HOLDING OFF IN THE EAST/NE UNTIL CLOSER TO
MORNING OR EVEN LATER. NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WX AND THE HEAVY
RAIN THREAT HAS PROBABLY ENDED TOO. HOWEVER THERE SHOULD STILL BE
SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN
MT. TROUGH FORECAST TO ROTATE ACROSS SOUTHERN MAN AND NORTHERN ND
TONIGHT AND THU. DEEP THETA-E ADVECTION EXPECTED EAST OF UPPER
TROUGH FOR TONIGHT AND THU. LOW LEVEL JET TO NOSE INTO EASTERN SD
THIS EVENING, THEN SHIFT TO STATES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH FRI. THEREAFTER LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH ENTRANCE REGION IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. PRECIPITABLE
WATER RISES TO AROUND AN INCH AND THREE QUARTER LATE TONIGHT AND
THU. BULK SHEAR UNDER 35 KNOTS. SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP, LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE.

SOME RESIDUAL INSTABILITY TO REMAIN OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ZONES
THU NIGHT...WILL ADD LOW POPS NORTH.

WILL TRIM BACK POPS NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST ZONES FRI.

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED A SECOND SHORT WAVE OVER WA/BC BORDER.
THE SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MAN AND NORTHERN
ND FRI. WILL HAVE POPS MAINLY OVER THE WEST AND NORTH.

SHORT WAVE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO AFFECT THE AREA SAT AND SO A
HIGHER THREAT FOR PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

UNSETTLED PERIOD AS UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LIFTS NE
INTO MB REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS SHOWING
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN PCPN PLACEMENT SO TARGETING SPECIFIC
AREAS FOR RAIN DIFFICULT. WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK MONDAY BEFORE LONG
WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FA TOWARDS MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN WELL BLO AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

AS THE SHOWERS/TSTMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE KDVL REGION THEY HAVE NOT
RESULTED IN ANY NON VFR CEILINGS AS OF YET. NOT LOOKING LIKE THE
SHOWERS/TSTMS EVEN ALONG AND SOUTH OF KJMS ARE RESULTING IN LOWER
CEILINGS YET. THEREFORE WILL KEEP TAFS IN THE VFR RANGE AND LET
LATER SHIFTS LOWER THEM IF ANY LOWER CEILINGS SHOW UP. TRIED TO
TIME THE PCPN FROM WEST TO EAST AS BEST AS POSSIBLE...BUT THE
EASTWARD PROGRESS HAS BEEN VERY SLOW. MODELS ALSO DISAGREE ON HOW
FAST TO MOVE ANY OF THIS OUT OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING OR
AFTERNOON. TRIED TO USE A MODEL BLEND BUT CONFIDENCE PRETTY LOW
OVERALL.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...VOELKER
AVIATION...GODON






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