Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 281546
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
946 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

THERE HAVE BEEN SOME REPORTS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN A FEW
SPOTS IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS. GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE FREEZING RAIN/SLEET
SHOWERS AND THE FACT THAT THE SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE THIS ACTIVITY
DISSIPATING IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WILL KEEP ANY HEADLINES OUT FOR
NOW AND JUST GO WITH A NOWCAST. HOWEVER WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS
IN CASE THE ACTIVITY PERSISTS LONGER THAN EXPECTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 706 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

WILL MAINTAIN A SCATTERED TYPE POP THIS MORNING OVER THE FCST
AREA. RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW MOVING INTO DVL
BASIN-LANGDON AREAS. OF MORE INTEREST IS CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THAT
WERE IN EASTERN MT EARLIER THEY ARE MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD LISBON-
VALLEY CITY AND WILL MOVE INTO FARGO AREA. COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED
A TAD....BUT PTYPE IS WHAT IS MOST IMPORTANT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WOULD INDICATE SLEET PSBL IN JAMESTOWN BUT THEN MORE OF A SNOW
SOUNDING FARTHER EAST AS DEPTH OF COLD AIR IS QUITE DEEP AS YOU
MOVE EAST. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN PREV PTYPE GRIDS WHICH IS SNOW
FOR VALLEY CITY-FARGO AND SOME SLEET/SNOW IN FORMAN/GWINNER AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

MODELS HAVE IN GENERAL HANDLED THINGS VERY POORLY LATELY. WHAT WAS
GOING TO BE A DECENT SNOW CLIPPERY SYSTEM LAST NIGHT WAS ANYTHING
BUT. BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINED WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF WHAT WAS
PROGGED 24 HOURS AGO AND THUS MAIN 1 TO 2 INCH BAND WAS FROM MINOT
AREA TO JAMESTOWN TO ALEXANDRIA MN INSTEAD OF BEING FARTHER NORTH.
AMOUNTS WEAKER AS WELL AS FOCUS OF WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT SEEMED
MORE CONFINED TO ERN SD/WCNTRL MN JUST OUTSIDE OF MAIN PRECIP
BAND. ANYHOW FIRST PRECIP BAND OF LIGHT SNOW EASTERN MN INTO
WISCONSIN. THERE IS A LARGER AREA OF LIGHT SNOW UPSTREAM IN
SASKATCHEWAN INTO SW MANITOBA AND TRYING TO SPREAD INTO NCNTRL ND.
LATEST RAP/NAM SEEM OK IN SHOWING THIS LIGHT SNOW SPREADING INTO
NRN VALLEY AND PARTS OF NW MN THIS MORNING BEFORE DRYING UP. THERE
IS AN AREA OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THAT FORMED IN ECNTRL MONTANTA
AND IS NOW NORTHWEST OF BISMARCK. RAP HAS SOME PRECIP SURVIVING
AND MOVING INTO PARTS OF ECNTRL OR SE ND 12Z-15Z PERIOD. SO WITH
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW NORTH AND SOUTH KEPT PRETTY BROAD POPS THRU
18Z FRI. TOP DOWN DID SHOW SOME RISK OF SLEET IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN
ND IF PRECIP REACHES THAT AREA. THIS AFTN PRETTY QUIET MOST
AREAS...THOUGH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES FAR NORTH. BUT MAIN
850 MB WARM ADVECTION RETURNS BACK TO CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN THIS
AFTN AHEAD OF SHROT WAVE AND SFC LOW IN SOUTHERN B.C. THIS SYSTEM
TO MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL ND SATURDAY MORNING WITH MAIN AREA OF
WARM ADV SNOWS NORTH OF THE INTL BORDER. THOUGH DID KEEP SOME POPS
IN NRN FCST AREA AS SRN EDGE MAY IMPACT AREAS ALONG THE BORDER.
QUITE WARM AIR BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA
LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY SO HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR LOWS
TONIGHT IN MANY AREAS AND THEN RISING TO SOME LOWER OR MID 30S IN
THE FAR SOUTH SATURDAY WITH SOUTH WINDS WHILE NORTH WINDS RETURN
TO DVL BASIN AND FAR NRN VALLEY AS LOW MOVES EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

LOW WILL MOVE EAST THRU NRN MN WITH COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THRU
THE FCST AREA. SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH FRONT BUT NOTHING MUCH. VERY
COLD AIRMASS MOVES IN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS LIKELY STAYING BELOW ZERO
IN FAR NORTHERN ND. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN SUN NIGHT INTO CNTRL ND
WITH CLEAR SKY AND DID GO A BIT LOWER THAN SUPERBLEND BASED ON WED
NIGHTS LOWS. SUSPECT -20S AGAIN IN THE DVL BASIN.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...OVERALL DRY AND COLD AS THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS IN PLACE. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR WEAK AND BRIEF
RIDGING SCOURING OUT THE WELL BELOW NORMAL COLD AIRMASS. NW FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THIS SHORT WAVE IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED...RESULTING IN A
LESS COLD AIRMASS...WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 10 TO 18 BELOW RANGE FOR
WEDNESDAY. ZONAL FLOW APPEARS TO DEVELOP UP THURSDAY WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING INTO THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 706 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

A MIXED BACK OF CEILINGS THIS MORNING AND LIKELY THRU TONIGHT WITH
MAJORITY MVFR CIGS 15-25 KFT WITH SOME SCATTERED MVFR CLOUD THEN
CIGS IN THE 5-7 KFT RANGE. SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 KTS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE BUT TURNING A BIT MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. PATCHY
LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING AND INCLUDED IN MOST TAFS SOME MENTION OF
-SN.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE





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