Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 301718
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1218 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Mostly cloudy conditions remain across a majority of the region
with cold temps aloft leading to low convective temps. Adjusted
sky conditions for mostly cloudy into the mid-late afternoon
hours...with clearing expected with loss of solar. Also lowered
Max Temps a bit considering the increase in expected cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Rain showers exiting and then temperatures will be the main
forecast issues for the period.

The water vapor loops shows the main shortwave digging south into
the Northern Plains, and this will continue into the upper midwest
during the day. The cold front has moved through all but the far
southeastern counties, where some showers continue along the
boundary. The high res models have shower activity continuing to
develop in our southeastern counties until finally pushing south
around 15Z. Will continue to keep scattered to isolated POPs going
until the boundary pushes out of the area. Some clearing is
expected as the cold front moves south, but at least portions of
the northern and eastern CWA will see some cumulus clouds
redevelop this afternoon as we hit convective temps in the upper
60s to low 70s. Bumped up clouds a bit. With plenty of cold air
advection and breezy north winds in the 15 to 25 range the day
will seem more like fall than the last day of June.

Tonight, the center of the surface high will be over the Red River
Valley. Winds will be light and variable, and there should be
mostly clear skies as cumulus goes away. Think that temps should
drop again similar to Monday night/early Tuesday, with mid 40s and
some spots could see even cooler readings.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Friday through Saturday...Northwesterly flow aloft begins to give
way to a brief ridge moving in, with various small shortwaves
moving through. South to southeast winds will return as low
pressure develops to our west. The models are in pretty good
agreement keeping Friday dry, but some convection will be possible
on Saturday in the west as a weak system moves through. Temps
should see a warming trend back up to seasonal averages.

Sunday through Wednesday...Long wave upper level troughs remain
over the Canadian west and east coasts through the period. Upper
level ridge over the Northern Plains flattens and becomes quite
zonal. A separate upper level ridge builds over northern Canada
leaving a split flow to our north.

The ECMWF was a faster solution then the GFS through the period.
Both the ECMWF and the GFS was trending slower over the past couple
model runs. Will tend to prefer the faster ECMWF.

Little change to high temperatures for Mon and Wed. high temps
decreased a degree or so for Sun and increased one degree for Tue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Clouds will remain through the afternoon hours with clearing by
late afternoon or early evening. CIGS are fluctuating between MVFR
and VFR...and expect this fluctuation to continue through mid-
afternoon...but with a gradual improving trend. Gusty north winds
will subside this evening.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...TG



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