Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 051510
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1010 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

ADJUSTED POPS A BIT FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. THINK WE SHOULD STAY
DRY UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE PRECIP IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND
AND SD BEGINS TO MOVE INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW STRONG THE STORMS WILL BE...AS EVEN OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE THERE HAS BEEN CLEARING ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
FRONT ARE SEEING MORE CLOUDS MOVE IN. MARGINAL RISK SEEMS ON TRACK
AT THIS POINT BUT WILL MONITOR. FOG ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT
HAS ALSO BEEN STICKING AROUND LONGER THAN EXPECTED SO EXTENDED THE
MENTION. LOWERED HIGHS A BIT ACROSS THE CWA FOR INCREASED CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL AGAIN BE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...STRENGTH OF STORMS WILL DEPEND ON
TIMING OF UPPER WAVE AND CLOUD COVER. THE SHORTWAVE OF THE DAY IS
CURRENTLY (08Z) LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND WILL PROPAGATE
TO THE NE THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECTED TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING FORCING INTO THE SOUTHERN FA AFTER 18Z...AND INTO THE
NORTHERN FA AFTER 21Z. THIS TIMING IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER COMPARED
WITH FRIDAY...WHICH MAY ALLOW MORE TIME FOR HEATING. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL NOT BE MUCH STRONGER TODAY...AND SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
DEPEND ON ENHANCED INSTABILITY DUE TO HEATING. AS OF 08Z...LOW
CLOUDS ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE SFC BOUNDARY ARE ADVANCING TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. ANTICIPATE THIS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ADVANCEMENT OF
CLOUDS TO STALL AROUND MID-MORNING FROM AROUND BEMIDJI TO WAHPETON
(FOLLOWING THE HRRR). ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CLEARING ACROSS THE MINNESOTA COUNTIES. MOST CAMS INDICATE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS NW MN (WHERE FORCING WILL ARRIVE LAST...PROVIDING MORE TIME
FOR HEATING AND GREATER INSTABILITY). WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES
EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...ALTHOUGH
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE AND LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. WILL MENTION RW+ ACROSS NW MN WHERE STRONGER
STORMS ARE MORE LIKELY. CONSIDERING THE MANY VARIABLES
INVOLVED...WILL NOT YET MENTION T+.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE. TIMING WILL DETERMINE SEVERE
POTENTIAL...WITH MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING BEST CHANCES EAST OF THE
REGION (ALTHOUGH SPC DID PLACE THE FAR EASTERN FA IN A SLIGHT
RISK).

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE.
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MAY LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...PERIOD BEGINS WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND AN UPPER
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
AND W CNTRL MN. LWT THEN MOVES ACROSS MN THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH
NW FLOW PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS SHOULD KEEP REGION DRY FROM FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE SEASONALLY COOL WITH MAX TEMPS
THU AND FRI STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SAT SEP 5 2015

LIFR CIGS AFFECTING MOST AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING (EXCEPT FARGO).
THESE CIGS WILL GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY...OR MOVE NORTH AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE REGION. USED HRRR GUIDANCE FOR
TIMING OF CIGS. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG


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