Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 211218
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
718 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 712 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE TWO SHORT WAVES THIS MORNING...ONE MOVING
THRU SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA WITH CONVECTIVE CLUSTER EAST OF IT AND
ONE ALONG THE SASK/MANITOBA/ND BORDER WITH CONTINUED SLOW MOVING
CONVECTION MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM NORTHWEST OF DEVILS LAKE
INTO MANITOBA. THERE HAS BEEN A TENDENCY FOR THIS WAVE TO MOVE
EAST A BIT AND CONVECTION TO DEVELOP A BIT EAST OVER TIME THE LAST
FEW HOURS. FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY...EXPECT THE ACTIVITY OVER FAR
SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA TO MOVE OUT SOON AND SOME LINGERING
COVECTION IN NW FCST AREA NORTH OF DEVILS LAKE TO LANGDON AREA
WITH SPOTTY ACTIVITY IN BETWEEN THE TWO THRU NE ND INTO NW MN. AS
SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THREAT FOR PRECIP WILL DIMINISH
SLOWLY. TWEEKED POPS SOME MAINLY TO DROP SOME IN BEMIDJI AREA THIS
AFTN WHERE HAD LIKELY POPS. WENT CHC POPS AS PRECIP POTENTIAL
DOESNT LOOK HUGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

NOT UNEXPECTED SCENARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. ONE AERA OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NRN SD/SCNTRL ND MOVING EAST MEETING WITH UP
AERA OF STORMS FORMING IN 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET. FOCUS OF MAIN
RAINS HAS SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH INTO THE RICHER 850 THETA E AIRMASS.
ALSO GOT A NARROW AXIS OF RAINFALL MORE ALONG THE UPPER TROUGH
FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND INTO MANITOBA. THIS IS LIFTING NORTH. IN
BETWEEN FROM DEVILS LAKE TO HALLOCK SOUTH TO GRAND FORKS NOTHING.
SO WHAT HAPPENS TODAY PAST 12Z. NOT CLEAR CUT. WENT ALONG WITH
WFO DLH THINKING IN THAT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
NORTHEAST AND MAY INCREASE AGAIN IN COVERAGE THIS AFTN IN FAR
EASTERN FCST AREA AS DEEPER 850 MB MOISTURE MOVES NORTH AHD OF
WEAK SURFACE LOW WHICH WILL MOVE FROM CNTRL SD INTO SOUTHEASTERN
ND TO NEAR DETROIT LAKES BY 18Z. AS SFC LOW MOVES NORTHEAST THE
REST OF THE AREA MAY WELL SEE SOME SCATTERED PRECIP...ESP NORTH
AND EAST OF SFC LOW. LEAST CHC IN SW FCST AREA.

MAIN PRECIP AREA LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND SFC LOW TO LIKELY AID IN
COOLING AREA DOWN AND ALSO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL NOT HELP.
USED SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPS AND SEEMS REASONABLE WITH MOSTLY 60S DVL
BASIN FRI TO 70S SOUTH AND EAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

AFTER FRIDAY...MODELS DIVERGE WITH 00Z ECMWF BRINGING UP A LOW
PRESSURE AND CONSIDERABLE RAIN ACTIVITY TO MUCH OF ERN SD INTO
NRN MN LATER SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS/GEM ARE FARTHER
WEST WITH THE MAIN RAINS OVER WRN ND INTO SASK/WRN MB. NAM IN
BETWEEN AND FASTER WITH SFC LOW MOVING THRU ERN ND SATURDAY EVE
AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN CNTRL ND AND LESS EAST. FOR THE TIME BEING
WENT ALONG WITH HPC THOUGHTS WHICH IS A WETTER ONE FOR WCNTRL INTO
NCNTRL MN LATER SATURDAY INTO SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...VERY LOW CONFIDENCE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGING EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR LATE WEEKEND...AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF THE ROCKIES. THE POSITION OF
THE SFC LOW AND GREATEST FORCING FOR PRECIP REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
THEREAFTER...THE GFS MAINTAINS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A
PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FOR
MID-WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH FLATTER WITH THE FLOW. TEMPS ARE
LIKELY TO RUN PRIMARILY BELOW AVERAGE...BUT DAILY TEMP TRENDS WILL
HINGE ON HOW EXACTLY THE PATTERN RESOLVES ITSEL

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 712 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

A TOUGH AVIATION FCST. A HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS AND HAVE RECEIVED
THE TYPICAL LOWERING OF CIGS AT SUNRISE AGAIN INTO THE IFR AND
MVFR RANGE. SOME OF THE LOWER CIGS WILL RAISE A BIT BUT EXPECT A
HODGEPODGE OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS TODAY BUT ALSO SOME CLEARING SPOTS
ESP IN AREAS WEST OF FARGO. A FEW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT TAF SITES AT
TIMES BUT OVERALL PRECIP MINIMAL. WINDS LIGHT TODAY MAINLY A MORE
EAST OR SOUTHEAST WIND BECOMING LIGHT NORTHERLY LATE TONIGHT-THIS
EVE. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES AS WINDS TURN NORTH LOW LEVEL
SATURATION WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AND THUS BROUGHT IN LOW END MVFR
CIGS TO ALL AREAS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE






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