Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 281744

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1244 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Precipitation rates decreasing over the Grand Forks area as
evident on IR imagery showing warming cloud tops, with coldest
cloud tops moving over Kittson/Roseau counties. Expect heaviest
rain to not be from northwest Polk to central Roseau counties.
Latest HRRR guidance doing decent handling placement of
categorical POPs and no changes since 11 AM (additional) grid
update. Will be making phone calls to local LE officials to
determine status of street flooding prior to expiring urban flood

UPDATE Issued at 859 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Forecast challenge for this morning is monitoring area for any
ponding as areas around Grand Forks county have received over two
inches of rainfall. Areas of concern are between Manvel and
Mekinock as between Northwood and Thompson. Mostly raised gravel
roads in these areas and several calls around the area indicate
the roads are handling these rain amounts. At this point will
spread westward our categorical areas for rainfall and have
increased QPF amounts over Grand Forks county.

UPDATE Issued at 638 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Forecast in good shape with minor changes to match current
coverage of convective system. Dry slot starting to fill in over
the last hour as 850-700mb moisture convergence has increased
above the central and northern valley as the system wraps up.
Models in good agreement with activity being progressive and
moving east this morning.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Non-severe mature convective complex moving across the area this
morning with widespread rainfall. Rainfall accumulations expected
to range generally from a quarter to half inch with some higher
locations seeing upwards an inch mainly in NW MN where the shower
threat persists today. Models in good agreement with the evolution
of the system. The stratiform rain band which extends back to the
west across the Devils Lake basin this morning will slowly move
to the east as the SFC low along the SD/ND border tracks to the
east. Ahead of the low an elevated axis of moisture and
instability exists with PWats near an inch and a half and MU CAPES
around 1000 J/kg. As 850mb convergence and warm advection lift
into NW MN convective redevelopment will be possible through about
noon across the eastern half of the FA. Temps will be highest in
the west with more sun than clouds and cooler in the east ranging
from near 70 under the clouds to near 80 in the west.

Thermal profile changes little in the wake of the SFC low, as a
result lows are expected to be in the mid 50s for Thursday

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 336 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Thursday will start off dry with increasing chances for showers
and storms in the afternoon from west to east with approach of
the next short wave inducing NW flow aloft. Temps ahead of the
system will rise into the mid and upper 70s Thursday. With the
upper low overhead Friday any clear areas will fill in with
clouds rapidly and temps will struggle to reach 70 with scattered
showers across the entire FA.

Saturday to Tuesday...Split flow was across North America with
the northern stream over northern Canada and southern stream over
southern Canada/northern states. Long wave trough over the
Northern Plains shifts to the New England states. Low amplitude
long wave ridge over the West Coast shifts over the Northern
Plains and flattens by the end of the period.

The ECMWF was trending slower while the GFS was vacillating. The
ECMWF was faster early in the period and becomes slower by the end
of the period compared to the GFS. Upper low over the area will
produce showers for Sat/Sat evening.

Little change to high temperatures on Sat, Sun and Tue. Mon highs
were increased by one degree from yesterdays run.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed Jun 28 2017

Predominantly MVFR around the area although some patchy IFR will
continue esp in vcnty of shra. Challenge once this clears tonight
and high pressure moves over the region will be fog potential,
which latest MOS guidance is already picking up on. No mention
attm but will update with 21Z AMD if confidence increases.




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