Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 311430
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
930 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 928 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CLOUDS LINGERING LONGER OVER THE FAR NE FA AND ADJUSTED CLOUD
TRENDS THERE. OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG HAS DISSIPATED IN THE ERN ZONES AND HAVE
REMOVED THEM FROM THE FORECAST. TEMPS DIPPED A BIT LOWER THAN
EXPECTED SO LOWERED THEM A FEW DEGREES. OTHERWISE...REST OF
FORECAST ON TARGET.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS A SFC
TROF CROSSES THE ERN PART OF THE FA. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FAR ERN ZONES AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MIXES. DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
WILL RESULT IN THE FOG DISSIPATING...BUT WILL MENTION FOR A SHORT
PERIOD THIS MORNING.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. RETURN FLOW
WILL BRING WARMER AIR TO THE REGION...WITH HIGH TEMPS FCST IN THE
LOW 60S WEST OF THE RED RIVER. MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
KEEPING THINGS DRY AHEAD OF THE LOW ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF
BEING THE OUTLIER ATTM. CONSENSUS IS THAT MAIN MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE
FARTHER E AND 925/850MB DRY AIR INTRUSION SUPPORTS LACK OF PCPN
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...LOW BEGINS TO DEPART AND EXPECT
SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO HELP BRING LIGHT PCPN TO THE NRN
PORTION OF THE FA. WITH COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE SYSTEM...EXPECT
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWING FROPA WILL COOL DOWN MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PATTERN SHIFT DURING THE PERIOD BUT DIFFER
IN THE DETAILS. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SEEN TO START
WITH WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH AND BRINGING A SFC LOW
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THIS COMING
THROUGH ON FRIDAY WHILE THE GEM HAS THE SHORTWAVE ON SATURDAY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH SUCH MINOR SYSTEMS THINK THE BLENDED
SOLUTION OF POPS FRIDAY NIGHT SEEMS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. BY
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT FLOW TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.
THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A LOT OF RUN TO RUN AND BETWEEN MODEL
VARIATION...BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT PRECIP
MONDAY IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WHETHER IT WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW
DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL SOLUTION. WILL KEEP GOING WITH BLENDED POPS
FOR NOW AND A MIX MENTIONED...BUT WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE
SYSTEM AS IT DRAWS CLOSER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THRU THE PERIOD. WINDS LIGHT EARLY IN WEAK
GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE...THEN FORECAST TO
BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AHEAD
OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE HIGH PLAINS.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...HOPKINS
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/JR
AVIATION...HOPKINS






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