Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
143 FXUS63 KGID 011000 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 500 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Fog, dense at times is expected through mid-morning Saturday for much of the area. - Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Saturday and Sunday. The main hazards with any storms that develop will be large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rain. - There is a chance for daily showers and thunderstorms, impacting at least a portion of the area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 455 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 The main concern in the near term as people are waking up this morning is the potential for dense fog across south central Nebraska and north central Kansas. Light winds, radiational cooling, and recent moisture have created favorable conditions for the development of fog across the area. Visibilities as low as 1/4 mile have been reported already this morning in Grand Island and Kearney Nebraska, and Smith Center, Kansas. Fog, dense at times, will remain possible through around mid-morning. Once the fog burns off, our attention turns to the chance for more showers and thunderstorms. Thunderstorms are ongoing coming out of the Nebraska Panhandle this morning, moving to the east. There are a few, low-end pops (10-20%) in the forecast for areas along and north of Highway 2. Confidence in these storms holding together and becoming severe is low at this time. There does still remain the possibility of a few storms making it into the northern part of the region. Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected heading into the afternoon and evening hours. Decent lapse rates along with SBCAPE values of around 1500+ J/kg, MLCAPE values of 1000+ J/kg, and DCAPE values of 900-1100 J/kg are expected. The main concerns with any storms that develop will be large hail, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall. An isolated tornado cannot be entirely ruled out. The Storm Prediction Center has put most of the area into either a Marginal or Slight Risk for severe weather for this afternoon/evening. Several flood products remain in effect through this morning for portions of south central Nebraska and north central Kansas. The main concern in the near term as people are waking up this morning is the potential for dense fog across south central Nebraska and north central Kansas. Light winds, radiational cooling, and recent moisture have created favorable conditions for the development of fog across the area. Visibilities as low as 1/4 mile have been reported already this morning in Grand Island and Kearney Nebraska, and Smith Center, Kansas. Fog, dense at times, will remain possible through around mid-morning. Once the fog burns off, our attention turns to the chance for more showers and thunderstorms. Thunderstorms are ongoing coming out of the Nebraska Panhandle this morning, moving to the east. There are a few, low-end pops (10-20%) in the forecast for areas along and north of Highway 2. Confidence in these storms holding together and becoming severe is low at this time. There does still remain the possibility of a few storms making it into the northern part of the region. Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected heading into the afternoon and evening hours. Decent lapse rates along with SBCAPE values of around 1500+ J/kg, MLCAPE values of 1000+ J/kg, and DCAPE values of 900-1100 J/kg are expected. The main concerns with any storms that develop will be large hail, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall. An isolated tornado cannot be entirely ruled out. The Storm Prediction Center has put most of the area into either a Marginal or Slight Risk for severe weather for this afternoon/evening. Several flood products remain in effect through this morning for portions of south central Nebraska and north central Kansas. Precipitable water values of 0.8-1.1 inches is expected today. There is a concern that any slower moving or training thunderstorms may cause more flooding issues in areas that have already had flooding in the last 48 to 72 hours. The Weather Prediction Center has most of the area in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall today. Sunday, a trough will enter the region, bringing another chance for showers and thunderstorms to the region in the afternoon, evening, and overnight hours. Once again, some of these storms could become strong to severe with hail to the size of quarters, winds gusting to 70 mph, and heavy rainfall, which may result in flash flooding for areas that have already received quite a bit of rainfall over the last few days. The Storm Prediction Center has the area in a Marginal to Slight Risk area for severe weather. The Weather Prediction Center has the area in a Marginal to Slight Risk area for excessive rainfall. Monday and Tuesday, zonal flow will be in place for much of the day. An upper trough over the PACNW will slip to the southeast through hte day Monday, bringing chances for showers and storms both Monday and Tuesday. Tuesday appears to be the better day for precipitation chances, with a 20-50 percent chance. Areas that have already had significant amounts of rainfall will want to keep an eye on the weather as it will not take as much rain to cause issues. Afternoon temperatures each day will be in the mid to upper 80s. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s. Wednesday and Thursday bring a welcome, drying out period as a ridge sets up over the Rockies. The High Plains will be under northwest flow during this time. Uncertainty returns to the forecast late in the week as models are not able to find agreement on the potential for thunderstorms. There is a concern that any slower moving or training thunderstorms may cause more flooding issues in areas that have already had flooding in the last 48 to 72 hours. The Weather Prediction Center has most of the area in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall today. Sunday, a trough will enter the region, bringing another chance for showers and thunderstorms to the region in the afternoon, evening, and overnight hours. Once again, some of these storms could become strong to severe with hail to the size of quarters, winds gusting to 70 mph, and heavy rainfall, which may result in flash flooding for areas that have already received quite a bit of rainfall over the last few days. The Storm Prediction Center has the area in a Marginal to Slight Risk area for severe weather. The Weather Prediction Center has the area in a Marginal to Slight Risk area for excessive rainfall. Monday and Tuesday, zonal flow will be in place for much of the day. An upper trough over the PACNW will slip to the southeast through hte day Monday, bringing chances for showers and storms both Monday and Tuesday. Tuesday appears to be the better day for precipitation chances, with a 20-50 percent chance. Areas that have already had significant amounts of rainfall will want to keep an eye on the weather as it will not take as much rain to cause issues. Afternoon temperatures each day will be in the mid to upper 80s. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s. Wednesday and Thursday bring a welcome, drying out period as a ridge sets up over the Rockies. The High Plains will be under northwest flow during this time. Uncertainty returns to the forecast late in the week as models are not able to find agreement on the potential for thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 At KGRI: Dense fog has developed within the vicinity of the terminal, with significant reductions to visibility. Light winds, clear skies in surrounding areas, and recent moisture will all add to the potential for fog issues lingering into the morning hours. Heading into sunrise, fog concerns persist in the vicinity of the terminal. Visibilities are expected to improve as we move further into the morning and afternoon. Winds remain light and variable through the afternoon, before becoming southeasterly in the evening. Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms continue from mid-afternoon Sunday through the end of the TAF period. At KEAR: VFR conditions continue. Skies are currently clear and winds are light. There is growing concern that fog will develop by 09Z. Fog has already developed to the east, and is expected to expand in coverage overnight. For now, have fog potentially lowering visibilities down to 1/2 mile; however, there may be a few pockets of 1/4 mile visibility. Any fog that develops is expected to clear up by around mid-morning. Light and variable winds in the morning will gradually become southeasterly around 5-10kts in the afternoon. There is a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms in the vicinity of the terminal beginning around mid-afternoon and continuing through the end of the forecast period. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for NEZ061>063- 073>076-082>086. KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ005>007- 017. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wekesser AVIATION...Wekesser