Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 220717
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
117 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1255 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Lowered snowfall amounts most areas given the current lull in the
snowfall.

The first major snowband clipped our northwestern zones
from Ord to Cozad, but mainly impacted areas northwest of our
forecast area. However, forecast models remain in good agreement
that a second heavy snow band will begin to set up as we near dawn
and especially between 6 am and noon. This band is expected to be
centered around the Tri-Cities and then slide east with time
through the morning.

The heaviest snow will be in the northern portion of the snow
band primarily along and north of I-80 with much lighter amounts
as you head south into north central Kansas. Snowfall rates could
be as high as 1 to 2 inches an hour for awhile this morning in the
heart of this next snow band once it forms. However, it will
likely not last long enough to get amounts over 10 inches.
Locations within the heaviest portion of this band primarily
along and north of I-80 could still see 5 to 8 inches with some
localized higher amounts to around 10 inches, but overall these
amounts have been lowered from the previous forecast. South of
Interstate 80 over the blizzard warned area snowfall amounts will
likely range from 2 to 6 inches, with localized amounts up to 7
inches. The advisory area will likely only see 1 to 3 inches and
would not be surprised to see some of the advisory area get less
than one inch.


UPDATE Issued at 748 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

No chgs to warning/advisory on this shift.

Main fcst message: patience. It`s getting a later start than
expected but everything is coming together. Hang in there. 88D
winds at 700 mb show the low is still over SW KS. As the low
tracks ENE across KS tonight...the commahead/wrap-around snow will
move in.

Based on trends in satellite/radar loops with contd support from
the HRRR...don`t expect much snow tonight in the Tri-Cities and
generally E of Hwy 183. Dry slot is a major player over a much
larger portion of the CWA than we expected just 24 hrs ago. These
are the details that can make or break a fcst at any one location.

The current position of the band is where it will spend most of
the night.

This band will finally become mobile after 3 AM and will gradually
progress from W-E across the CWA. Snow should be done W of Hwy 281
by 12 PM and Hwy 81 by 3-4 PM.

It is important to emphasis: the brunt of the heavy snow will be
affecting the Tri-Cities in the 4-11 AM time frame...including
during the AM commute. The morning commute envisioned very bad.
We do not recommend travel.

Snowfall rates: around 1" per hr at times with highest chance of
persistent high rates N of I-80...where we expect the heaviest
accums.

This will be the heaviest snowstorm out of the winter thus far.

Snowfall Axis: heaviest (8-16") along and N of a line from Alma-
Hastings-York. S of that line less. The gradient to locations that
have significant snow vs none at all could be very very tight...
maybe the width of a county.

Winds: a major problem and that is the reason for the Blzd Wrng.
Increasing 25-35 mph with gusts 40-50 mph 12 AM-3 PM.

Drifting: 3-5 footers. Numerous county roads will be impassable.

Since temps were too warm for frzg drzl...heavy snow and blizzard
conds are the main focus. This fcstr recommends you should be
where you can be safe and comfortable by now...and plan to stay
there thru 3 PM tomorrow from the Tri-Cities N and W...and thru 6
PM tomorrow eve S and E of the Tri-Cities.

Impacts: dangerous travel with significant delays via land and
air. Near zero vsby once the heavy snow starts falling and even
after due to the high winds.

Travel: Suggest no travel...but if you must...take it slow and
have blankets/water/food and an emergency kit in case an accident
halts travel.

This will be a high impact event. Closures and cancellations are
numerous. Ck with local media.

Please relay snow accum reports to us via social media. Pics with
ruler or tape measure will be especially helpful. Be sure you`re
measuring in an area that is representative of the average (no
drifts). We realize most of this will fall at night...but if
you`re up and can safely do so...reporting when you reach 6" would
be very helpful. Otherwise...we`ll wait for storm total amts once
the snow is over. TUVM!

Ham radio operators are activated to provide reports. Thank you!

Recovery/Clean-up: in cities/towns...be sure to dig out the fire
hydrants if needed after the storm is over.

After the snow ends Mon...it will not be a walk in the park.
Recovery will be hampered by strong winds gusting 40-50 mph with
continued drifting and whiteout conds at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 249 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

The latest numerical model tracks of 850 mb and surface lows suggest
that our axis of heaviest snow may have been too far northwest and
that at least a further slight shift south/southeast is warranted. I
have nudged the Blizzard Warning further southeast as a result, but
the cutoff of snow to the southeast will be quite sharp, so I do not
want to go too much farther south at this time. The wind gusts to 45
mph look like a pretty sure bet late tonight into Monday morning,
considering continued projected 925 mb and 850 mb winds. The slowing
down of this system also suggests that the track may wind up being
farther south as well. The later arrival of snowfall still looks
warranted and will continue this trend. I have shifted the axis of
heaviest snow south, especially what occurs after 12Z Monday. The
trends of the 850 mb low track would also suggest that I still may
not be far enough south with heaviest snowfall axis past 12Z Monday
as the low looks like it may head more in an east northeast
direction. With the low swinging through south central Kansas into
the Kansas City area, this would also indicated a southward shift to
the track.

This winter system will be quite different as the snow looks much
heavier and denser than of snows past, and we will not have an
arctic intrusion as systems past either.

The departure of the snow will be later as well, and may very well
be pushing 00Z Tuesday before it completely departs the CWA. We may
even need to extend eastward areas of the WSW past 3 pm.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 249 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

Unlike recent events, there is not a lot of cold air behind this
system with seasonable temperatures expected. I did not pay terribly
much attention to weather after the upcoming blizzard, but weather
generally looks seasonable and mainly dry for most of the rest of
the forecast, with perhaps a cool-down toward the very end of the
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1255 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

The first snow band has tracked northwest of KEAR and KGRI thus
sparing them from any snow so far. However, a second snow band is
expected to form in the few hours leading up to dawn and expand in
coverage through mid morning. This snow band is expected to bring
blizzard conditions to the area. Overall snowfall amounts have
been lowered some, but with 50 mph wind gusts this morning
significant blowing and drifting snow is still expected.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Blizzard Warning until 3 PM CST this afternoon for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>086.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for NEZ087.

KS...Blizzard Warning until 3 PM CST this afternoon for KSZ005-006-
     017.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for KSZ007-
     018-019.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Wesely
SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Wesely


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