Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 280559
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1259 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO THE FCST. DID RAISE LOW TEMPS
2-3F FROM LXN-ODX DUE TO THE THICK CIRROSTRATUS CANOPY OVERHEAD.

THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME SEMBLANCE OF A WEAK COOL FRONT W-E
ACROSS KS. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN TSTM FORMATION OVERNIGHT AND
POOR MODEL QPF`S EVEN IN THE 1ST 6 HRS OF THE 00Z RUNS DOES NOT
HELP.

THE 04Z HRRR HAS TSTMS ALREADY OVER THE FCST AREA THAT DO NOT
EXIST.

21Z SREF QPF PROBABILITIES SUGGEST INITIATION IN THE 06Z-09Z TIME
FRAME. A 30-40 KT LLJ WILL BE IMPINGING UPON THE FRONT...AND THERE
IS A LARGE PLUME OF 10-12C 850 MB DWPTS THAT WILL BE ADVECTING N.

MUCAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG COULD SUPPORT SOME HAILERS.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

ALOFT: 00Z ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOWED A TROF OVER THE WRN
USA. THIS TROF WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE E THRU TONIGHT AND WILL BE
LOCATED JUST W OF THE FCST AREA BY DAYBREAK FRI. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
TROFS WERE EMBEDDED AND THIS MAKES TSTM POTENTIAL MUCH LESS CLEAR.

MORE LATER...


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

TO BEGIN THE MID TERM PERIOD...THE ECMWF...GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE POSITION OF AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL WAVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDS ALONG THE MAJORITY OF THE FRONT RANGE.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT...VORTICITY
ADVECTION WILL SHIFT INTO THE REGION. THIS COMBINED WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW...PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE AND
A LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT...THURSDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING LIKE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. INSTABILITY
DECREASES AFTER SUNSET BUT STILL REMAINS DECENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS LACKING...WHILE LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS BETTER. COULD WE SEE STRONG STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT...ITS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN ZONES.

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY...AS DOES THE
SURFACE LOW AND A COLD FRONT. TIMING ON THIS FRONT HAS SPED UP THE
LAST FEW MODEL RUNS WITH ITS CURRENT POSITION THROUGH THE TRI CITIES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WENT SLIGHTLY COOLER ON HIGH TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE NAM/GFS
ALSO INDICATE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE DRY
SLOT...THEREFORE LOWERED POPS JUST SLIGHTLY IN THAT REGION. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE DAY ON
FRIDAY AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DECREASE. LEFT
LINGERING POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT BUT TAPERED THEM OFF
QUICKLY AFTER 6Z. THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF LINGERED POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...MOST LIKELY
BASED ON THE ACTUAL WAVE ITSELF MOVING THROUGH...BUT THE 12Z RUN WAS
QUICK TO DRY OUT THE REGION AFTER 6Z...LEAVING SATURDAY MOSTLY DRY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE SATURDAY THE COOLEST
DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND FINALLY ZONAL FLOW MOVES INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION HELPS TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK INTO THE UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80 BY MONDAY. NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON TAP FOR MID
WEEK...WHICH SHOULD BRING A COLD FRONT AND ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THU NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

REST OF THE NIGHT: VFR WITH MULTI-LAYERED CIGS AT OR ABOVE 10K FT.
POCKETS OF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN SCT TSTMS AFTER 09Z. WINDS SSE
UNDER 10 KTS. LLWS. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

THU: IT ALL HINGES ON TSTMS WHICH COULD BE ON-GOING OR VERY NEARBY.
SOME FCST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR OR IFR STRATUS DEVELOPS IN THE
WAKE OF THESE STORMS. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THE FCST OPTIMISTIC...BUT
WATCH FOR AMENDMENTS. S-SSE WINDS 10-15 KTS. CONFIDENCE: LOW

THU EVE: PROBABLY VFR TO START...BUT ANOTHER PERIOD OF TSTMS IS
POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z. SE WINDS 10-15 KTS. CONFIDENCE: LOW

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...HALBLAUB
LONG TERM...SALTZMAN
AVIATION...HALBLAUB



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