Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 272008
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
308 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Forecast concern, as it has been for about the past 10 days, is
off and on precipitation chances.

Satellite water vapor imagery shows the upper low responsible for
the weather the past week is finally on the move and was currently
near the CO/KS/NE border. The system is almost but not quite
vertically stacked as the surface low was just a tad north of Garden
City KS at 18Z. Inverted surface trough extended northeast from the
low up towards southern Iowa. Temps have been slow to warm today due
to mid morning convection and extensive cloud cover. However clouds
have thinned just a bit and some diurnal temp rises now occurring.

Once again a difficult scenario coming up in the next 24 hours as
the low noted above moves through our area. Models showing the
orientation of the inverted trough may change with the northern axisbending back into our southern CWA by 00Z. This should provideadditional convergence for our area later this afternoon. Thatcombined with overall ascent associated with approaching upper waveshould result in more precipitation with the better chance of severein the south and southeast. That being said, enough instabilityaround to produce hit or miss showers/tstms later this afternoon andevening across the entire CWA, but believe the main show would be inour south closer to where the surface low rides northeast along theinverted trough. This will also be where the best instability isrelised although it is still a bit meager.  Expect the main threatto be winds/hail but last 0-1 bulk shear values from the SPC mesopage did have 10-15 kt and with low lcl values cannot rule out atornado or two.

Precipitation chances should start to wane during the day Saturday
as the upper low passes, so will end it west to east as the day
progresses.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Starting out Saturday evening with the big picture, the upper low
should have weakened into an open wave and is progged to be east
of the CWA near the I-29 corridor. Weak ridging will work its way
into the Plains behind this wave, with two areas of low pressure
to the west, one over southern CA and the other off the BC
Canadian coast. This should allow for mainly dry weather Sat night
and during the day on Sunday, although the latest GFS operational
run develops some afternoon/evening convection with an impulse
swinging in from the southwest.

Monday and Tuesday then become active once again as the western
upper lows noted above progress towards us. Will be several
shortwaves pushing through ahead of the main low impacting the
central plains. Still some differences in timing between the models
as the GFS keep the northern low closed off and has it on the
central MT/WY border by 12z Tue. Eventually the GFS ends up with an
omega block scenario from Wed through the following weekend with the
front end low anchored just to our SE. This would result in us
remaining in a wet pattern.  EC more progressive and dry although it
has slowed down a little from the last run.  Will be interesting to
see which model pans out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Isolated tstms are expected to continue this afternoon and then
increase in coverage overnight as an upper low moves into the area
from the west. Cigs may drop to MVFR after dark. Winds are
expected to become light and variable after sunset and then switch
to the nw after sunrise Sat as a surface low pressure passes
through.


&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ewald
LONG TERM...Ewald
AVIATION...Ewald



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