276
FXUS63 KGID 170000
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
700 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry, warm, and breezy on Friday. Highs in the 80s.

- A few thunderstorms are expected to return to parts of the
  area late Saturday night into Sunday morning, with more
  widespread thunderstorms Sunday afternoon through the evening.
  Some of these storms may be severe.

- More thunderstorms Monday afternoon through Tuesday, although
  details on coverage and severity are more uncertain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

As expected, today`s weather has been absolutely fantastic. As
of 3pm, temperatures are in the 70s with light winds and only
spotty diurnal cumulus. Skies will clear tonight, but increasing
southerly winds should keep overnight low temperatures in the
50s.

Continued south/southwesterly flow will result in an even
warmer day on Friday. Wind gusts of 20-30 MPH are expected
through the afternoon. Highs in the 80s are a near certainty
(80-100% probability on the NBM). There is even a chance
(30-50%) that our southwestern areas exceed 90 degrees.

A cold front moves through the area on Saturday, resulting in
northerly winds and slightly cooler temperatures. That said,
skies will remain mostly clear as surface high pressure moves
in, possibly allowing many locations to still reach the 80s
(especially in our southeast).

Thunderstorms are expected to develop Saturday night with an
increasing LLJ. This activity may develop "overhead" or to our
west, pushing across the area late Saturday night into Sunday
morning. Instability will be somewhat limited, but some
marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out.

This morning activity does provide some uncertainty on how the
rest of the day will play out, but global deterministic models
are generally supportive of another round of thunderstorms
Sunday afternoon through the evening. Increased instability and
deep-layer shear with this round of storms would potentially
support a better chance for severe storms (mainly wind and
hail).

More thunderstorms are expected to develop again Monday
afternoon through Tuesday as an upper trough slowly moves
through the central/northern Plains. Convective details remain
fairly uncertain at this range, but some severe storms cannot
be ruled out, especially on Monday.

Ensembles favor a bit drier period Tuesday night into Wednesday
before another trough arrives for late next week. These
continued precip chances should keep widespread drought from
returning, but medium-range ensembles actually favor below-
normal precipitation totals through the next 10 days. We are
nearing the climatologically "wettest" portion of our year, when
we would expect roughly 1.75" over a 10-day span. Per the
latest EPS/GEPS/GEFS, the probability of seeing 1.75" or more of
total rain through next Saturday (May 25th) ranges from just 5%
in our far southwest to around 40% in our northeast.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 655 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

VFR expected through the period with only minimal cloud cover.
Lgt and vrbl winds this eve will bec mainly S-SW after sunset
and slowly incr through the night to around 6-10kt. Winds will
bec brzy on Fri, esp late AM through the aftn, with sustained
winds 15-20kt, and gusts around 25kt. Primary direction for
these stronger winds will be SSW.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Thies