Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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447
FXUS63 KGID 280900
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
400 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Once again, we will be starting the day with areas of fog, and
have gone ahead and issued a dense fog advisory for the entire
area. That said, there is some uncertainty in the coverage of the
dense fog as high clouds will be increasing from the west and
wind speeds are slightly higher than we saw yesterday. Expect
visibility to be variable, with several locations seeing
visibility dip to around 1/4 mile.

Chances for showers enter far western portions of the area this
morning, but expect more dry time than wet for the majority of the
area today. Precipitation becomes likely late this afternoon into
the overnight as the low-levels become saturated.

Rain will continue through tonight as the mid-level low slowly
tracks across New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. It appears that
the heaviest precipitation tonight will be across Kansas and far
southern Nebraska. I wouldn`t be surprised if some places pick up an
inch or more through Wednesday morning in those areas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Rain will be the focus for the middle of the workweek and again
heading into the weekend. Starting on Wednesday, rain is expected to
be ongoing across our region as an upper low pressure system crosses
the central and southern plains. The precipitation is expected to
widespread with the brunt of the rain falling from Tuesday night
through Wednesday night. Precipitable water values average three
quarters of an inch throughout this event and decent rainfall totals
are forecast with amounts of one half inch to over an inch possible.
Instability parameters are not overly impressive, but they are not
zero either and have mentioned some isolated thunder for our
southeast zones Wednesday afternoon and evening.

The upper low pressure system departs Thursday with the precipitation
ending west to east, with ECMWF quicker moving the system out
compared to other models. Conditions dry out through Friday in
height rises and shortwave ridging in between systems. Precipitation
chances return Friday night and into the first part of the weekend
ahead of another upper low pressure system in the south central
Rockies. The extended models begin to diverge more so heading into
Sunday on the track of this next system, so there is uncertainty on
whether or not Sunday will remain dry and details of this will be
resolved with time. The model differences carry into the first part
of next week and did not deviate from ensembles with additional rain
chances on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Potential for fog development will be the primary concern
overnight tonight into Tuesday morning. Current thinking is that
the thickest fog will be west. KEAR could easily fall into the
LIFR range, but have less confidence that it will affect KGRI so
maintained MVFR conditions for now.

Rain showers arrive from the west to east late Tuesday morning
into the afternoon. Coverage should be pretty limited early on, so
kept VCSH out of the TAF until 18Z, but there is still a low
probability that it moves in earlier.

Flight conditions will continue to deteriorate, likely into the
LIFR range Tuesday night as heavier bands of rain move into the
area.


&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for NEZ039>041-
     046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.

KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ005>007-
     017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mangels
LONG TERM...Fay
AVIATION...Mangels



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