Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 300620
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
120 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OUT ONTO THE
PLAINS...CURRENTLY SHOWN BY SATELLITE IMAGERY SPINNING OVER
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CO/NM BORDER. AT THE SFC...CWA-WIDE
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE...WITH BROAD HIGHER PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH...AND LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTH OVER NRN TX.
BEEN ANOTHER UNPLEASANT DAY...OVERCAST SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE 40S.
PRECIPITATION HAS REALLY STRUGGLED TO PUSH/EXPAND NORTH
TODAY...LIKELY HINDERED AT LEAST SOME BY THE NERLY WINDS...AND
TOOK UNTIL AFTER MIDDAY TO EVEN GET NORTH OF THE NE/KS STATE LINE.
RECENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN THE WRN EDGE OF THIS FIRST BATCH OF
RAIN HAS REALLY DIMINISHED AS IT MOVED NORTH...AND THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON LOOKS TO PRIMARILY AFFECT LOCATIONS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281...BUT EVEN THEN NOT LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAIN STILL EXPECTED
TO COME TONIGHT...WITH MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL CONTINUING TO SLIDE EAST. BY SUNRISE TOMORROW...THE
LOW IS SHOWN TO HAVE MOVED INTO NWRN KS...AND BY THE END OF THE
DAY SHIFTS INTO THE HEARD OF OUR CWA. DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
TOMORROW...THE BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
NRN HALF OF THE CWA. ACROSS THE SOUTH...DECENT POPS
REMAIN...THOUGH SOME MODELS DO HAVE A SHARPER CUTOUT OF THE
PRECIP...LEAVING BEHIND EITHER -DZ OR NOTHING. BY THE TIME THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD COMES TO AN END...TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2
INCHES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...WITH TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES
BEING POSSIBLE ACROSS W/NWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AGREE WITH
PREVIOUS SHIFTS THINKING IN REGARD TO FLOOD POTENTIAL...OVERALL
RATES ARE NOT DRIVEN BY THUNDERSTORMS...AND TOTALS ARE SPREAD OVER
A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME. POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED AREAS OF MINOR
FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD ISSUES
CERTAINLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO HOIST A WATCH.

OTHERWISE...THE SFC LOW LOOKS TO TAKE A SIMILAR PATH TO THE UPPER
LOW TONIGHT/TOMORROW...WITH MORE N/NWRLY WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE CWA AS IT PASSES THROUGH. MAY BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE...ESP
ACROSS THE WRN HALF OR SO...GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE
ANOTHER DAY OF WELL BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS...FORECAST TO BE IN THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE FORECAST REMAINS WET AND COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN THE
FORECAST DRIES OUT AND TEMPERATURES TREND UP THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK.

SATURDAY NIGHT MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE UPPER LOW TRACKING
ALONG THE NEB/KS STATE LINE WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE
CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES IN THE DEFORMATION/WRAPAROUND. PCPN
CHCS LOWER FARTHER SOUTH INTO KS IN DRY SLOT WITH BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE. COULD STILL SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OR SO...AND THIS RAINFALL IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY WILL ONLY ADD TO ANY STANDING WATER/RUNOFF ISSUES.
STILL NOT LOOKING FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING BUT IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THE WATER TO DRAIN INTO RIVERS ONCE THE RAIN ENDS. HAVE
KEPT PCPN TYPE AS RAIN/LIQUID AS EXPECT THE RAIN/SNOW LINE TO
REMAIN TO OUR WEST...BUT THE GOTHENBURG/LEXINGTON AREAS COULD BE
ON THE EDGE OF A MIX FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.

HEADING INTO SUNDAY THE UPPER LOW REACHES THE MISSOURI RIVER AND
FILLS SOME. FOR THE MOST PART THE ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION WILL
BE OVER BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES DURING THE DAY. ANY CLEARING ALLOWING FOR A
RISE IN TEMPS WILL ALLOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS TO BE REACHED WITH
CLOUDS FILLING BACK IN.

THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN PCPN DURING THE EVENING SUNDAY...THEN
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WITH THE
BETTER CHCS ACROSS NC KANSAS. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW COULD ALSO LEAD TO
FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.

THE FORECAST IS MAINLY DRY FOR THE WORKWEEK AND TEMPERATURES TREND
MILDER/MORE SEASONAL IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 117 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

POOR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PRIMARY ISSUE BEING
LOW CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD. EXPECT LIFR CEILINGS
TO BE THE RULE ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME FLUCTUATION BETWEEN
LIFR AND IFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE DAY. THE MODERATE RAIN BAND
CURRENTLY SITUATED ALONG I-80 WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING
AND EXPECT LESS FREQUENT AND LIGHTER SHOWERS AS WE HEAD THROUGH
THE BULK OF SATURDAY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...FAY
AVIATION...WESELY



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