Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 220938
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
438 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 438 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

BY FAR THE MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THE
FAIRLY DECENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST BRIEF MEASURABLE RAIN
SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PASSING ACROSS THE CWA FROM WEST-
TO-EAST MAINLY FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-EVENING. WHILE THE
ENTIRE CWA STANDS AT LEAST A 50-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING
RAIN...THE HIGHEST 70-80 PERCENT CHANCES CURRENTLY ADVERTISED
APPEAR TO FOCUS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 281
CORRIDOR...WHERE THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF REALIZING A GENERAL
0.25-0.50 INCH AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXISTS. ALTHOUGH RAIN IS
LIKELY IN MOST AREAS...WANT TO EMPHASIZE TWO MAIN POINTS HERE FOR
THE PUBLIC MESSAGE: 1) THIS IS BY NO MEANS AN ALL DAY/ALL EVENING
RAIN- OUT...AS ANY GIVEN LOCATION SHOULD ROUGHLY OBSERVE ONLY A
2-4 HOUR WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIP. 2) FOLLOWING IN LINE
WITH POINT 1 ABOUT THIS NOT BEING AN ALL DAY EVENT...FOLKS FROM
THE TRI- CITIES EASTWARD PROBABLY WONT SEE A SINGLE DROP UNTIL
GENERALLY THE NOON-2PM TIME FRAME...AND THOSE COUNTIES IN THE FAR
EASTERN CWA ALONG HIGHWAY 81 MAY VERY WELL BE WAITING ON RAIN
UNTIL AT LEAST THE 2-4 PM TIME FRAME. ONCE PRECIP MOVES OUT THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...THE SECONDARY SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE INVOLVES
WHETHER OR NOT AT LEAST PATCHY/POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL FOG MIGHT
FORM LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN ITS WAKE.

STARTING WITH THE CURRENT SCENE AS OF 0830Z/330 AM...ALL HAS BEEN
QUIET ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...AS THE NEAREST RAIN STILL REMAINS
WELL OUT WEST IN THE PANHANDLE. FURTHERMORE...AS SUSPECTED HERE 24
HOURS AGO...DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AS EVIDENCED BY FAIRLY
STEADY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BREEZES GENERALLY IN THE 7-13 MPH RANGE HAS
APPARENTLY THWARTED ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT WORTH MENTIONING IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST (MEANING WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 2-3 MILES)...AND THUS THE PATCHY FOG
PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED FOR THIS MORNING HAS BEEN PULLED. ALTHOUGH
THERE ARE STILL A FEW MORE HOURS FOR THINGS TO CHANGE...EVEN A
LOWER STRATUS DECK HAS FAILED TO MATERIALIZE OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...WITH ANY LIMITED SKY COVER AT THIS POINT CONSISTING OF ONLY
THE MID-HIGH VARIETY. AT THE SURFACE...A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A GREAT LAKES REGION HIGH AND A TROUGH AXIS/WEAK COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST
CO IS DRIVING THE STEADY SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT BREEZES...WHICH ARE
WORKING TO KEEP TEMPS NOTICEABLY MILDER AND MORE UNIFORM THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE CWA ON TRACK TO REALIZE LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE 53-57 RANGE. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PICTURE...WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRMS THAT CHANGES
ARE UNDERWAY AS A BROAD RIDGE CONTINUES DEPARTING EAST OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE THE LEADING EDGES OF SMALL-SCALE
DISTURBANCES ARE STARTING TO ENTER THE FAR WESTERN NEB/KS
AREA...ALTHOUGH WELL TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE PRIMARY PARENT
VORT MAX TRACKING EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN MT/CANADA
BORDER AREA.

FORECAST WISE...AND STARTING WITH THE INITIAL FEW HOURS THROUGH
14Z/9AM...HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THE VERY EASTERN EDGES OF A FEW SHOWERS COULD
BE IMPINGING ON THE FAR WESTERN CWA BY THAT TIME. IN THE
MEANTIME...ABOUT THE ONLY ISSUE IS MONITORING WHETHER OR NOT ANY
AT LEAST LOCALIZED AREAS OF LOW STRATUS TRY TO FORM.

GETTING INTO THE HEART OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...AND AS TOUCHED ON AT
THE TOP...RAIN CHANCES WILL SLOWLY BUT SURELY INCREASE ACROSS THE
CWA FROM WEST-TO-EAST. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THIS IS A FAIRLY
CLASSIC...MODESTLY-STRONGLY FORCED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS THE
ENTIRE BROAD TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY...ACCOMPANIED
BY AN EASTWARD-ADVANCING CORRIDOR OF MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS AND UPPER JET DIVERGENCE. MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE...THE ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PASS
INTO THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...AIDING LOW LEVEL FORCING AND HELPING
TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION INTO WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING LINE OF SHOWERS/FAIRLY WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WITH TIME.
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND ACTUALLY INCREASED THESE WIND SPEEDS
SOMEWHAT WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY 15+ MPH AND GUSTS AT
LEAST 20-25 MPH. BEHIND THE FRONT...BREEZES WILL BECOME LIGHTER AS
THEY TURN WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY TO
LIGHT/VARIABLE. AS ALSO PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...THINK THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA WILL PROBABLY REALIZE RAIN TOTALS NO MORE THAN
0.25-0.50 INCH...ALTHOUGH ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COULD EASILY
PUSH A FEW SPOTS MAYBE EVEN CLOSER TO 1 INCH...ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD
LIKELY BE A CONSIDERABLE EXCEPTION TO THE NORM. AS FOR
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY...WHILE CERTAINLY NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED...THE PRESENCE OF MAYBE UP TO 400-600 J/KG OF MIXED-
LAYER CAPE PER THE 06Z NAM COULD POSSIBLY SUPPORT A FEW CORES WITH
SMALL HAIL ESPECIALLY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. TEMP-WISE...CONFIDENCE
IS NOT OVERLY-HIGH GIVEN THE VARIOUS OFFSETTING FACTORS INCLUDING
INCREASING CLOUDS BUT A RELATIVELY MILD START. ALL THINGS
CONSIDERED THOUGH...OPTED TO NUDGE HIGHS UP 1-3 DEGREES FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN MOST PLACES...GENERALLY AIMING FOR UPPER 60S-
LOW 70S WEST TO MAINLY MID 70S EAST.

TURNING TO THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...PER THE PREFERRED LOOK OF
VARIOUS HIGHER-RES MODELS INCLUDING SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM
THE 00Z 4KM WRF-NMM/ARW...BY 00Z/7PM THE VAST MAJORITY OF ONGOING
PRECIP SHOULD BE FOCUSED NEAR/EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 281
CORRIDOR...WITH MOST PLACES FARTHER WEST ALREADY DRYING OUT. AS
THE LARGE SCALE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES ITS
DEPARTURE...THE NARROW ZONE OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL
GRADUALLY DEPART AS WELL...AND BY 03Z/10PM...ONLY PLACES GENERALLY
EAST OF AN OSCEOLA-SUPERIOR-OSBORNE KS LINE CONTINUE TO CARRY A
20+ PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN...AND HAVE ALL MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES
WHATSOEVER OUT OF EVEN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CWA BY 08Z/2AM...AND EVEN
THIS MAY BE GENEROUSLY LONG. IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING PRECIP...THE
MAIN QUESTION MARK FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY THURS
MORNING INVOLVES WHETHER OR NOT AT LEAST LIMITED FOG DEVELOPMENT
COULD BECOME AN ISSUE...WITH THE LATEST NAM12 VISIBILITY PRODUCT
ACTUALLY SUGGESTING THAT FAIRLY LOW VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS COULD
MATERIALIZE. ALTHOUGH NOT A SLAM DUNK FOR FOG FORMATION BY ANY
MEANS (IT RARELY IS)...FELT THE FAVORABLE FACTORS OF CLEARING
SKIES OVER WET GROUND IN THE PRESENCE OF GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE
BREEZES LESS THAN 5 MPH WAS ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A GENERIC PATCHY FOG
MENTION FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA TO GET THE BALL ROLLING IN
CASE IT ULTIMATELY AMOUNTS TO SOMETHING IMPACTFUL. ONE POSSIBLE
FOG-MITIGATING FACTOR FOR PARTS OF THE CWA COULD BE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LATE-NIGHT MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK AS SUGGESTED BY
THE 06Z NAM...BUT IN GENERAL EXPECT OVERNIGHT SKIES TO AVERAGE NO
WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUD BEHIND THE DEPARTING PRIMARY WAVE. MADE
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES...BLENDING VARIOUS
GUIDANCE/MODELS TO YIELD A RANGE FROM NEAR-40 FAR NORTHWEST TO LOW
50S FAR SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 438 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE WE SEE A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER 60S...WHILE HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO RISE AT LEAST INTO THE 70S WITH MAYBE EVEN SOME LOWER 80S AROUND
BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.

MOST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DRY WITH JUST A LOW END CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ON MONDAY ALONG AND BEHIND A PASSING COLD
FRONT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK VORT MAX ON
THURSDAY THAT WILL BE TRAILING THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH THAT WILL
HAVE PASSED THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SECONDARY
VORT MAX ON THURSDAY WILL HAVE LESS FORCING AND LESS MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH AND A VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST MODELS ARE DRY.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z NAM DOES TRY TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
VERY WEAK RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY FEATURE/SUBTLE TROUGH. AM NOT BUYING INTO THE
NAM POSSIBILITY OF RAIN AT THIS POINT IN TIME AND WILL CONTINUE TO
CALL FOR A DRY FORECAST ON THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IN A DRY FORECAST ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY IS VERY HIGH AS THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE FIRMLY
LOCATED OVER THE AREA BY THAT POINT IN TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL ALL THREE DAYS RISING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON
THURSDAY TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ADDING TO THE NICE FORECAST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE
EASTERN CONUS...WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHEN A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA. FORECAST MODEL RUNS
HAVE GENERALLY SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN FROM 24HRS AGO...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER VERY NICE DAY ON SUNDAY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOWER IN THE SUNDAY FORECAST HIGHS GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT AND QUESTIONS ABOUT TIMING OF THAT
FRONT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...IT APPEARS TO BE A GOOD BET THAT THE COLD FRONT
WILL HAVE TRACKED ACROSS...OR WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA BY MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE 10 TO
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY MEAN THAT
HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL IN THE LOWER 60S FOR MOST
AREAS...ALTHOUGH KANSAS ZONES MAY BE A TOUCH WARMER. THERE WILL BE
SOME CHANCE OF RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
A GREAT CHANCE AT THIS POINT IN TIME AND AMOUNTS ALSO DO NOT
CURRENTLY APPEAR VERY SIGNIFICANT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE COOL DRY
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS...BOTH VFR CEILING AND VISIBILITY CONTINUE
TO BE ADVERTISED THROUGH THESE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THE MAIN
CAVEAT BEING AT LEAST AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF AN MVFR STRATUS
DECK MATERIALIZING SOMETIME AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING...AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE LINE OF
SHOWERS/MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CROSS THROUGH THE
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SPEAKING OF THIS
PRECIPITATION CHANCE...THE PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCES ALREADY HAD A
PREVAILING RAIN GROUP GOING...SO MAINTAINED THIS BUT ATTEMPTED TO
REFINE TIMING BY DELAYING THE ONSET A BIT AND CONFINING ALL
SHOWER POTENTIAL INTO THE 17-22Z TIME FRAME. ALTHOUGH
FAIRLY WEAK THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THESE
SHOWERS...OPTED AGAINST A FORMAL THUNDER MENTION AT THIS TIME.
BACKING UP TO THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...MAINTAINED A MENTION OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) FOR EARLY THIS MORNING AND ACTUALLY
EXTENDED IT THROUGH 15Z...AS THE OVERALL BULK SHEAR DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND ROUGHLY 1200 FT AGL IS AVERAGING 30-35KT
THANKS TO A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE. AS FOR SURFACE WINDS...FAIRLY STEADY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
BREEZES EARLY THIS MORNING AROUND 12KT SHOULD PICK UP A BIT LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE VEERING MORE WESTERLY AND
DIMINISHING BEHIND THE DEPARTING PRECIPITATION. BY THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE BREEZES SHOULD BE IN PLACE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH



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