272
FXUS63 KGID 150531
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1231 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms developing over the High Plains this afternoon
  will move east across the forecast area by late this
  afternoon/this evening. Some storms this evening may be strong
  to severe, mainly west of Highway 281. Large hail/damaging
  winds would be the main threats.

- Wednesday brings another chance of strong to severe
  thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening, mainly from
  the tri- cities area and areas east. Large hail and damaging
  winds will again be the main threats.

- After a potentially dry Thursday and Friday, periods of
  showers and thunderstorms return to the forecast Saturday
  evening through Monday evening.

- High temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s, and lows will be
  in the 40s and 50s, through the forecast period

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024

The upper pattern shows a zonal pattern with embedded shortwaves
over the forecast area sitting between a departing ridge over
Iowa/far eastern NE and a trough over the Rockies. Meanwhile, a
surface trough approaches the central Plains from the west.

This evening...
Temperatures across the area are in the 70s with dewpoints in
the 40s and 50s this afternoon. Currently expect thunderstorms
to develop across portions of central Nebraska along the frontal
boundary. Instability is fairly limited but still enough to
support stronger updrafts, and steep low and mid-level lapse
rates (~8.5 degrees C/km), DCAPE over 1000 J/kg, and a somewhat
inverted-V model sounding all support the presence of strong to
severe wind gusts with these storms. Modest 0-3 km helicity and
deep layer shear supports marginally severe hail as well. These
thunderstorms will push east into western portions of the
forecast area this evening. Some of these storms may be severe,
with the most likely timeframe for severe weather between around
6PM and 11PM, mainly west of Highway 281 as in the Day 1
Marginal Risk outlook from SPC (but that may be a generous
eastward extent of severe weather). Showers/storms will continue
to track east across the area, but will have difficulty
maintaining the severe threat late tonight/overnight.

Wednesday...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue into Wednesday, mainly
scattered showers during the overnight hours. The HRRR and RAP
models indicate a return of thunderstorms potentially as early
as 9 to 10 AM Wednesday, but think morning activity should
remain sub-severe. A return to a chance of severe thunderstorms
comes Wednesday afternoon and evening, and the eastern two-
thirds of the area has been outlooked by SPC under a Marginal
Risk for severe weather. This looks to be a better setup as far
as model guidance is concerned with grater instability and
higher dewpoint values forecast. While damaging winds will be a
threat, large hail may be the bigger threat Wednesday
afternoon/evening if storms really get going. There is still a
lot of uncertainty with the details of this, and if there is
enough activity and cloud cover in the morning, severe weather
may not develop at all in the afternoon/evening. Afternoon highs
are forecast to be in the low to mid-70s.

Thursday and Friday...
Showers/storms will move out of the forecast area Thursday
morning, and dry weather is expected most of Thursday through
Saturday morning. Highs Thursday will be in the 70s, warming
into the 80s Friday.

This weekend through early next week...
Saturday will probably be the warmest day of the forecast period
with high temperatures expected to be in the mid- to upper 80s,
and locations across north central Kansas may approach 90
degrees. Another trough swinging across the northern and central
Plains will bring the next decent chance of showers and storms
Saturday evening and Sunday, with a series of troughs
potentially keeping the area active early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

A batch of showers/thunderstorms work their way through the
terminal areas to start off this TAF period, with a lull in
activity expected through midday...though confidence in that
timing isn`t overly high. Another chance for scattered storms
returns during the afternoon-early evening hours as a surface
frontal boundary works its way through the region. Confidence in
the overall coverage is also not high, so kept mention as VCTS.
Currently have VFR conditions through the period, but at least
brief MVFR conditions will be possible through mid-late morning.
Light/variable winds are expected to turn northwesterly during
the day, with speeds peaking around 10-15 MPH.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hickford
AVIATION...ADP