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000
FXUS63 KGID 072156
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
356 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS OVER THE SHORT TERM WILL BE SNOWFALL CHANCES ACROSS
THE OUTLOOK AREA LATER TODAY. ALSO...VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR WITHIN THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL BANDS...SO THIS WILL BE
NOTED IN THE HWO.

BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT SLID THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER THIS
MORNING...A BREEZY NORTH WIND HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA.
THIS IS MOSTLY DUE TO A LOW THAT STALLED OUT OVER THE OKLAHOMA/TEXAS
PANHANDLES EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...CREATING A TIGHTER THAN EXPECTED
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A FEW LOCATIONS WERE
HITTING IN AND OUT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. LEANED ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION AND DID NOT ISSUE A CHEAP LAST MINUTE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
AREA. THIS NORTHERLY WIND WILL BE SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT TODAY WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT BEFORE CALMING DOWN.

THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE TIED TO ELEVATED OMEGA AND
FRONTOGENESIS...WHICH IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A 700MB TROUGH
CURRENTLY SLIDING OVER THE REGION. THE SNOWFALL WILL NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND SHOULD BE ORIENTED IN A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BAND.
THE BAND WILL SLIDE OVER THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT TODAY WITH ITS
SOLUTION...SO LEANED THE FORECAST AND POPS TOWARDS THIS OUTCOME.
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO END AROUND SUNRISE. LESS THAN AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL IS FORECAST...BUT AREAS WHERE HEAVIER SNOWFALL IS ONGOING
WILL EXPERIENCE REDUCED VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 1 TO 3 MILES FOR A
BRIEF TIME PERIOD. THE SREF HAS BEEN HANDLING THIS EVENT WELL FOR
VISIBILITIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND HAS PLACED THE WORST
VISIBILITIES ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN
00Z AND 04Z.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

OVERVIEW...OUTSTANDING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT WILL
KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE COOL DOWN WILL BE BRIEF WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RETURN AGAIN BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE SFC HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR
SOUTHEAST ALLOWING FOR RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THERE WILL BE GOOD
MIXING WITH LOTS OF SUN ALLOWING FOR A GOOD WARM UP...WHICH SHOULD
EASILY MAKE SUNDAY THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ON
SUNDAY...PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED OVER THE
PLAINS. THE SFC WIND WILL LIGHTEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
MAKING FOR AN EVEN NICER DAY...LIKELY THE NICEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7
DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH
JUST A LIGHT BREEZE.

TUESDAY...THE MORNING MAY START OUT MILD...BUT A COLD FRONT WILL
QUICKLY SINK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA MAY END UP BEING GREATER THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND HOW QUICKLY IT
PASSES THROUGH. WILL CALL FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO THE MID
50S SOUTH...BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE ON TEMPERATURES GIVEN
FRONTAL TIMING ISSUES AS WE ARE STILL 4 DAYS OUT. THE TEMPERATURES
ALOFT DO APPEAR COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...BUT WITH THE WARMER SFC LAYER
MAY SEE RAIN INITIALLY AND THEN SNOW. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING
BASED ON CURRENT MODEL TIMING.

WEDNESDAY...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE...BUT NO SEVERE COLD
LIKE WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. RATHER THE AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY
MILD WITH HIGHS ONLY FALLING TO AROUND NORMAL. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...OVERALL THE PATTERN APPEARS WARM AND DRY. A
WEAK SHORT WAVE MAY UNDERCUT AN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS...BUT THE FORECAST MODELS ARE OVERWHELMINGLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

THE TAF WILL BEGIN WITH VFR CONDITIONS...BUT WILL TURN TO MVFR
CONDITIONS AROUND SUNSET FOR LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS DURING SNOWFALL. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE BREEZY FROM THE
NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH PASSED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER
TODAY. SPEEDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS...AND WILL BE
PRETTY CONSISTENT UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE PERIOD OF SNOWFALL
NOW APPEARS TO BE BRIEF...WITH A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY BETWEEN A
COUPLE HOURS. THE TIMING OF THE SNOW IS IN QUESTION...SO A TEMPO
GROUP WAS USED TO ILLUSTRATE THIS UNCERTAINTY. ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
TO THE TERMINAL AROUND MIDNIGHT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

SOUTHWEST ZONES COULD MIX TO AROUND 825 MB...WHICH WOULD PULL THE
DRIER AIR DOWN TO THE SFC ALONG WITH SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS. USED
A MIXED DOWN TOOL TO COME UP WITH DEWPOINTS FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH SEEMS MORE REALISTIC THAN THE ALLBLEND DEWPOINTS.
WILL LIKELY BE NEAR FIRE WEATHER HEADLINE THRESHOLDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...WESELY
AVIATION...GUERRERO
FIRE WEATHER...WESELY