Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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835
FXUS63 KGID 301713
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1213 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

12Z map analysis indicates a mid to upper tropospheric low over
the Missouri River Valley and a mid-tropospheric shortwave trough
axis over the northwestern CONUS. Subtle ridging is noted over the
Rocky Mountains, as well as another ridge over the Ohio River
Valley. Enhanced upper tropospheric jet energy extends from the
lower Mississippi Valley, north/northeast into the Great Lakes,
and then east into southeastern Canada and the northeastern CONUS.
Another area of enhanced upper tropospheric jet energy also
exists over the Pacific just off the northwestern CONUS coast. At
the surface an area of low barometric pressure exists over western
Missouri. The surface wind across our area remains from the
north/northeast as a result.

Overall the forecast remains in great shape with only minor
adjustments made to hourly temperature and sky grids. The mid-
tropospheric low over the Missouri River Valley continues moving
east, away from our area and as a result, precipitation has come
to an end across the entire CWA. Dry conditions will persist
across the area this afternoon as a result. With the exception of
perhaps our far western CWA, satellite imagery suggests the
stratus will continue promoting overcast skies for much of the
area through the remainder of the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Aloft: The Westerlies were fairly amplified with svrl features
looking much more potent now that we`ve fully entered the
transition season of spring. A low was over Ern KS with a
shortwave ridge extending from SD-NM ahead of the next strong
shortwave trof moving onshore in the W. This trof will kick the KS
low to the E while the ridge moves overhead today and tonight. In
the meantime...the upstream trof will dig today...close off over
NV by 00Z...and drop into AZ/UT tonight.

Surface: Occluding 1001 mb low pres was over Ern KS with its
associated warm and cold front well E and S of the FA. High pres
was near Hudson Bay with its SW quarter extending over the Plns.
The next Pac cool front has moved onshore in the Pac NW. The KS
low will slowly depart the rgn today with weak high pres forming
over the Dakota`s. This high will gradually increase its influence
over the FA into tonight...but it will do little to clear the
cloud cover. Meanwhile...the Pac front will cont making its way
thru the Wrn USA.

Today: Cldy to start. There could be a little lgt rain or drzl
well E of Hwy 281 until 15Z...but its back edge will be drifting
E. Most of it will be done by sunrise. The stratus will gradually
lift into stratocu with it partially breaking up W of Hwy 281
this afternoon. E of Hwy 281 should remain cldy all day. Maybe a
few bright spots.

Used SuperBlend for high temps which basically maintains
continuity with the prvs fcst...40s from the Tri-Cities N and
E...and low 50s to the W and S.

N winds will occasionally gust up to 25 kts until noon...E of Hwy
183. Diminishing winds after midday.

Tonight: Any clearing that takes place W of Hwy 281 will be
temporary. Persistent E-NE flow will advect the stratus right back
in. Current expectation is that stratus will dominate...and
should be far enough W of the FA to preclude much fog (although
there could be some 4-6 mi VSBYs).

Used consensus of short-term hi-res models for low temps (mid
30s).

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Forecast challenge includes chances of rain mainly late Friday
night into Saturday night and late Monday night into Wednesday
morning, with thunderstorms possible Tuesday/Tuesday evening.

Kicking off with Friday, I decided to leave fog out of our
western CWA, even though SREF probs indicate that there is a fair
shot at some fog in our west in the morning, but I suspect that
the western edge of stratus will be farther west of the CWA. As an
upper low deepens over the central Rockies, the flow over our
area will be south/southwest in advance of this trough. Warm air
advection will help bring in some showers late Friday night in
advance of the aforementioned wave. There does not appear to be
enough instability for mention of thunder.

The trough of the trough crosses our area on Sunday, and will
essentially cut off our precip chances. The GFS opens up the wave
as it moves over our area, while the ECMWF keeps a closed low
tracking east across the southern plains.

The next wave moves into the plains by Tuesday, and this time,
could give us some thunder as MUCAPES could be above 500 J/Kg.
Still a little unsure about severe weather potential, but with the
passage of a cold front, this would not be out of the question,
considering the possible negative tilt to the wave with an
enclosed low. The associated upper level jet streak may wind up
being too far south to put us in severe potential, so we will have
to stay tuned.

As for temperatures, this looks like a fairly typical scenario
for this time of year, kind of on a bit of a roller coaster, but
not getting too far above or below average. With each of the
aforementioned waves, there will be at least a good chance of more
rain. I did increase wind speeds behind the expected cold front
on Tuesday/Wednesday and went with CONSALL for that.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

MVFR to IFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours.
Stratus is expected to persist at both TAF sites, near or just
above 1000FT AGL for the most part through this evening, and then
lowering below 1000FT AGL during the overnight hours. Visibility
is also expected to drop tonight, generally into IFR levels. The
surface wind will remain from the northeast during much of the
forecast period, starting off near 12KTS with locally higher gusts
this afternoon, then decreasing to around 06KTS tonight.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Bryant
SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Bryant



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