Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 051129
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
629 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/TROUGH AXIS WHICH WAS THE DRIVING
FORCE BEHIND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY STILL ONGOING. WHILE INCREASED LIFT IS KEEPING SOME
ISL/SCT ACTIVITY GOING ACROSS OUR CENTRAL/ERN NEB COUNTIES...THE
BRUNT THE ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED ACROSS OUR NC KS COUNTIES AND POINTS
SE...IN AN AREA OF INCREASED MUCAPE AND LOWER LEVEL TEMP/MOISTURE
ADVECTION THANKS TO A SWRLY LLJ. AT THE SFC...THE PATTERN IS A
WEAK ONE...WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS SUBJECT TO THE AFFECT OF
OUTFLOW PUT OUT BY AREA STORMS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AREA OBS
SHOWING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...INCLUDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME
LOWER LEVEL STRATUS...IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. BECAUSE OF THE
LIGHT WINDS/RECENT RAINFALL...INSERTED A PATCHY /FOR NOW/ MENTION
OF FOG MAINLY ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...CLOSER TO THE EDGE
OF THE MAIN AREA OF STRATUS. MODELS/GUIDANCE VARY ON HOW LOW
VISIBILITIES WILL GET EARLY THIS MORNING AND HOW WIDESPREAD THEY
WILL BE...WILL MONITOR HOW ONGOING PRECIPITATION AND THAT WRN EDGE
OF STRATUS EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...MAY HAVE TO HIT
THE FOG HARDER IN THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IN HOW THE FOG/STRATUS
IS GOING TO PLAY OUT IS NOT HIGH.

LOOKING AT THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE WITH
THE CONTINUED GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. OVERALL DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
INHERITED POPS THROUGH THE DAY...MODELS DO HAVE SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING OF THE END OF PRECIP FROM WEST TO
EAST...AND IF ANYTHING THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON THE SLOWER SIDE.
HAVE SOME 20 POPS LINGERING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS ROUGHLY THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA...BUT ITS
QUITE POSSIBLE THE CWA MAY BE DRY AFTERNOON MIDDAY. WILL LET THE
DAY CREW WATCH HOW THINGS PROGRESS AFTER SUNRISE AND ADJUST AS
NECESSARY. WINDS LOOK TO BE EASTERLY AS THE CWA SITS BETWEEN LOWER
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM ERN WY INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND HIGHER
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES...AND REMAIN ON THE
LIGHTER SIDE. ALONG WITH THE PRECIP...AM ON THE SLOWER SIDE WITH
DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
ERN HALF OF THE CWA. HIGHS FOR TODAY CONTINUE TO BE CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE...WITH UPPER 70S IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS LOOK TO LINGER
LONGER INTO THE DAY...WITH LOWER/MID 80S POSSIBLE FURTHER
WEST/SOUTH.

DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT...AS THE AREA
SITS UNDER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING BETWEEN THE CURRENT
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH AND ANOTHER APPROACHING FROM THE NW.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A SEASONAL AND OCCASIONALLY UNSETTLED FEW
DAYS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUING TO HINT
AT A RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE TO END OF
NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES AND REDUCED
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES.

IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT THE FIRST OF SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TO BE TRACKING ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE BULK OF THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THURSDAY...EXPECT SOME OF THIS
CONVECTION TO REACH THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...BRINGING AMPLE CLOUD COVER...AND A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION...PRIMARILY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY AND FOCUSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA.

EXPECT THE SUBSEQUENT AND STRONGER UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO BRING A
BETTER SHOT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION ON FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WITH GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT OVER THIS PERIOD...PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AND MODEST
SHEAR...FELT CONFIDENT INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WITH THE MARGINAL SEVERE PARAMETERS...ALSO INCLUDED A
MENTION FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DAY 3
SPC OUTLOOK.

THEREAFTER...MULTIPLE SMALLER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY...WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. IN THE MEANTIME...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
FLUCTUATE NEAR NORMAL EACH DAY...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S...AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY EAST
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT OUTSIDE OF A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS MORNING PRIMARILY AT KGRI...DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. WITH AREA OBS CONTINUING TO SHOW
THERE BEING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AROUND...KEPT MENTION GOING FOR
A COUPLE MORE HOURS THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE FINAL
FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST...AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AGAIN THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG/LOW CIGS...BUT AT THIS POINT ONLY LOWERED TO 6SM
WITH A SCT LOWER CEILING. WHEN NOT LIGHT/VARIABLE...WINDS LOOK TO
BE SERLY.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ROSSI
AVIATION...ADP


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