Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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186
FXUS63 KGID 251058
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
458 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 137 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2017

Cool and mainly clear tonight as surface high pressure builds into
western and central Nebraska. The surface ridge axis will migrate
across the forecast area bringing light winds to all areas. As the
high moves southeast of the area tonight, a south/southwest return
flow will set up overnight and continue into Sunday. A few clouds
may drift across the forecast area today. Have some concern about
temperatures warming as much as predicted if the clouds thicken
a bit more than expected. However, temperatures will still be
above normal despite the "colder" feel one may have when compared
to the record high temperatures of the last two days. Right now
the upper 50s to around 60 looks reasonable.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 137 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2017

Most offices have increased temperatures Sunday and Monday from
the given initial model load. Sunday looks warmest in the
southwest where 70 will again be in play. By Monday, strongly
anomalous warmth sets up across the entire with a south to
southwest surface flow. Highs averaging at least in the middle 70s
look like a good bet with some upper 70s likely. Record high
temperatures for Grand Island and Hastings are in jeopardy and
current forecast would have them being broken. The record high for
Grand Island on November 27th is 73 and its 71 for Hastings.
Though winds appear to be too low in drier western area, fire
weather conditions Monday afternoon will have to be watched given
relative humidity values approaching 20% west of Highway 283
combined with the very warm temperatures.

Good agreement the record warmth will come to a close Monday night
with the passage of a cold front. Tuesday is cooler and a
transitional day to some potential precipitation late Tuesday
night and Wednesday, but that is more uncertain this morning. The
operational GFS and ECMWF both take a weakish closed low across
northern Oklahoma. The Canadian models brings through an open
wave during the day Wednesday. Precipitation in the form of some
light rain, light snow or a mixture continues in the forecast
for late Tuesday night/Wednesday. Such low precipitation chances
reflect on the uncertainty of the event at this point in time.
The track and intensity are both yet to be determined, although
timing has remained consistent in the Tuesday night/Wednesday
time frame. Right now this doesn`t look like a major weather
system and its impacts appear minimal.

Another front pushes through the area late Wednesday/early
Thursday, shifting winds and dropping temperatures closer to
normal for the end of November. Looks like the end of the week
will end up dry and then we will see how models the combination
of ridge of high pressure over the southeast U.S. and a trough
of low pressure trying to establish itself around Southern
California in the 8-12 day time frame. Going into the middle
of December looks to be a bit more active weather pattern along
with cooler/more normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 12Z Sunday)
Issued at 457 AM CST Sat Nov 25 2017

Aside from a occasional cirrus level ceilings, VFR conditions are
forecast for both KEAR and KGRI through the period as surface
high pressure slides across the area today.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NOAA/NWS/Moritz
LONG TERM...NOAA/NWS/Moritz
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/Moritz



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