Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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000
FXUS63 KGID 240600
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1200 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

TEMPS ARE STILL MILD AND HOLDING FAIRLY STEADY IN THE 30S. HOURLY
FCST TEMPS WERE RUNNING TOO COLD BY SEVERAL DEGREES. SO BLENDED
CURRENT OBS INTO THE FCST TO GET THE FCST TEMP CURVES BACK ON
TRACK.

NOT MUCH FLURRY ACTIVITY UPSTREAM...BUT A FEW FLURRIES CAN`T BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT. SO MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION IN THE
FCST. OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FCST SKY COVER PER
SATELLITE TRENDS...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH WAS MOVING OUT OF OUR CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THAT WE HAVE HEARD OF SO FAR HAVE RANGED FROM A
TRACE TO NEARLY TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH. ONCE THE BAND OF RAIN
DEPARTS...WE ARE LOOKING AT DRY WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH
THE DAY ON MONDAY.

WINDS WILL REALLY BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THRU THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  ALTHOUGH
WIND SPEEDS MAY DECREASE TO SOME DEGREE EARLY THIS EVENING...WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AND REMAIN STEADY/GUSTY INTO THE
FIRST PART OF MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES MONDAY AFTERNOON.

SOME LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT PRIMARILY
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AND WE CURRENTLY HAVE SOME FLURRY MENTION
AS THIS NEXT FRONT MOVES IN.  ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE NOT SUGGESTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN...CANNOT RULE OUT A TRACE EVENT EITHER AND
HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHCS FOR THIS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FM THE DAKOTAS ON MONDAY WITH
THE THERMAL TROUGH/COOLER AIR RESIDING ACROSS EASTERN NEB/KS.
ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH READINGS RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S
IN THE SOUTHWEST.


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS AT 00Z
TUESDAY...WITH ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW EXTENDING FROM
SOUTHWESTERN CANADA...SOUTHTEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN
BACK NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA.
THE TROUGH AXIS IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST THUS ALLOWING FOR
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVERTAKES THE AREA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WILL PRESENT DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AND
SUCH HAS BEEN PRESENTED IN THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION...NO HIGH-
IMPACT WEATHER OF ANY KIND IS CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.

A SOMEWHAT WARMER BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS...ALONG WITH A DOWN-
SLOPING COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD...SHOULD HELP
PROMOTE RELATIVELY WARMER DAYS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 WILL BE REALIZED.
THE PASSAGE OF A BOUNDARY-LAYER BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD THEN PROVIDE
A COOLING TREND ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE 30S FOR THE
MOST PART. A BRIEF WARM UP IS THEN POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS BOUNDARY-LAYER
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS...THUS ALLOWING FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK IN THE
40S...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE POTENTIAL PASSAGE OF YET
ANOTHER BAROCLINIC ZONE PRESENTS A COOLING TREND TO FINISH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S ARE
ALSO CURRENTLY FORECAST DURING THE LONG-TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MON NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

OVERNIGHT: VARIABLE MULTI-LAYERED VFR CLOUDS MOSTLY BETWEEN 4-10K
FT. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR A TEMPO MVFR CEILING BETWEEN
2500-3000 FT...ESPECIALLY AT GRI. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. NW WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE IN SPEEDS
AND GUSTS. DURING TIMES WHEN WINDS DECREASE TO 10-15 KTS...SOME
LLWS IS PROBABLE. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 35 KTS AT
TIMES. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

MON: MULTI-LAYERED VFR CIGS WILL DIMINISH WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
DURING THE MORNING HRS. NW WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30 KTS.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH

MON EVE: VFR WITH CIRROSTRATUS CIGS INVADING. NW WINDS DIMINISH
AND SETTLE AROUND 10 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...HALBLAUB


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