464
FXUS62 KKEY 270843
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
443 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 443 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024
Another quiet night has been ongoing across the Florida Keys,
albeit very warm. KBYX radar remains quiet with GOES 16 Nighttime
Microphysics showing some cumulus out there. Deep layered ridging
remains dominant across the Keys early this morning. An Atlantic
surface ridge extends westward into the Keys resulting in marine
platforms observing southeast to south breezes of 5 to 10 knots
with Island Chain communities observing 5 to 10 mph. Temperatures
are also very warm along the Island Chain this morning in the
lower 80s with dew points in the mid 70s. Big Pine Key is once
again the cool spot dropping to 74 degrees early this morning due
to radiational cooling effects similar to that of mainland
Florida.

.FORECAST...
The forecast through mid week will continue to remain quiet as
deep mean layer ridging remains in place across the Keys. Rain
chances were removed from the forecast for today and tonight with
slight chances maintained for Tuesday through Wednesday. Hi-res
model guidance is showing a very subtle shortwave moving through
the flow aloft which might try to touch off some showers and
potentially thunderstorms to the waters to our north early Tuesday
morning. However, this is low confidence and as it looks right
now, any activity looks to miss the Island Chain. Outside of the
slight chances (10%) for Tuesday to Wednesday, it will be hot and
humid out again. Temperatures are expected to be in the lower 90s
each afternoon with not much relief overnight with lows in the
lower 80s. However, at this time, it continues to look like we
will remain below Heat Advisory thresholds, but expect heat
indices between 100-105 degrees.

The pattern begins to subtly change Wednesday night through late
week with slow height falls as troughing starts to overtake much
of Florida. Details are still being ironed out but it looks like
multiple weak upper level shortwaves will move through which may
result in episodes of convection, especially for our friends to
the north in South Florida. We will see just how much of this
activity moves through the Keys. Right now, maintained 10%
Wednesday night through Thursday night but there is the potential
for this to go up in subsequent updates. Kept thunder out for the
first two periods and then bring it in for Thursday night.
Statistical guidance continues the uptick to thunder chances
Thursday night onward.

Lastly, model guidance is in disagreement on the timing of
strengthening high pressure moving across the eastern United
States while it builds southward into the Keys. Nevertheless, it
appears the pattern may be shaping up for increasing rain chances,
breezy conditions out of the northeast to east, and cooler
temperatures and less humid conditions at some point during next
weekend. Therefore, stay tuned as the forecast is likely to change
at this juncture as we fine tune the timing and rain chances.

.COASTAL FLOOD...
For the next day or two, elevated water levels due to the lunar
cycle will likely cause minor saltwater flooding across the
Middle and Lower Keys. The most likely time for this will be
during the high tide cycles this afternoon and again Tuesday
afternoon. As a result, a Coastal Flood Statement is in effect
until 11 PM EDT this evening for the Middle and Lower Keys.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 443 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024
There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect
across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, high
pressure over the western North Atlantic will maintain light to
gentle southeast to south breezes through Tuesday. Breezes will
lull this afternoon and then surge one more time overnight into
Tuesday where breezes may occasionally become moderate. As the
high slides further east into the Atlantic, breezes will slacken
and become variable for Tuesday night and Wednesday. Another
strengthening high pressure moves across the eastern United States
and builds southward resulting in strengthening northeast to east
breezes for late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 443 AM EDT Mon May 27 2024
VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through the
TAF period. Surface winds will continue to be light and Nil rain
variable, but will assume a more uniform southeasterly direction
and 5 to 10 knots after sunrise.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this date in Keys Weather History, in 1984, the daily record
rainfall of 2.95" was recorded in Key West. Rainfall records for
Key West date back to 1871. In 1959, the daily record rainfall of
6.60" was recorded in Marathon. Rainfall records for Marathon date
back to 1950.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  91  83  92  82 /   0   0  10   0
Marathon  92  84  93  83 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...MJV
Aviation/Nowcasts....DP

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