816
FXUS64 KLCH 251733
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1233 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Another hot and humid day across the forecast area. Southerly
winds will keep bringing in low level Gulf moisture allowing for
high dew points and high humidity. Enough capping in place that
there shouldn`t be any significant shower activity. On-going
forecast is on track and no changes needed at this time.

Rua

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

High pressure will continue to dominate our weather pattern this
Memorial Day weekend. Weak but steady south to southwest flow will
continue to pull in the tropical airmass and high humidity.
Overhead, the high pressure will also suppress convection leading
to clear skies and maximizing our daytime heating. The
unseasonable warm temperatures will lead to highs in the low to
mid 90s. Monday will be the hottest day of the forecast period
with temperatures in the mid to upper 90s. Apparent temperatures
will soar above 100 degrees and will approach Heat Advisory
levels of 108 degrees.

Monday evening a diffuse cold front will push through the region
and bring a dry continental airmass. Leading to much nicer
conditions to start the extended forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Large mid to upper level troughs over the Western and Eastern U.S.
with weak ridging aloft over Mexico will keep a west northwest flow
aloft over the region Tuesday through Wednesday. This should allow
for a weak frontal boundary to move through the area Tuesday
afternoon. Expect another hot afternoon with highs in the lower to
mid 90s, with heat index values in the lower 100s. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms along and ahead of the frontal boundary. Slightly
cooler & drier air expected Tuesday night and Wednesday should bring
overnight lows back into the upper 60s to lower 70s and afternoon
highs in the upper 80s to near 90 on Wednesday.

For Thursday through Saturday, whatever`s left of the frontal
boundary expected to wash out, with southeast winds expected to
resume as surface high pressure prevails over the SE U.S. Weak upper
level disturbances in the northwest flow aloft over our region
likely to keep isolated to scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms, with blended guidance showing consistent 20-30% each
afternoon. Overnight lows near 70/lower 70s north of I-10, mid 70s
further south. Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to near 90.

08/DML

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

The remainder of the afternoon looks like VFR conditions as skies
should be scattered and any ceilings that may from will be at VFR
levels. Southerly winds will be a little breezy at times with
occasional gusts to near 20 knots.

Tonight, light south winds will prevail, with some low clouds
forming during the evening hours under the cap at MVFR levels
which will continue into the overnight. Particles from residual
agricultural smoke may combine with the high humidity to produce
brief light visibility restrictions from patchy fog/haze,
although conditions should remain at MVFR levels.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 252 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Surface high pressure continues to dominate our weather pattern.
On shore flow will continue for the next several days with winds
around 10 to 15 knots. Saturday night winds will increase
approaching 20 knots and a caution statement for small craft will
go into effect. Waves will increase with the winds reaching 6
feet Saturday and Sunday then decreasing to 4 feet on Monday.

No shower or thunderstorm activity is expected through the

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  92  74  92  73 /  10   0   0  10
LCH  88  77  88  77 /   0   0   0  10
LFT  92  77  91  78 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  90  77  90  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...07