257
FXUS63 KOAX 302012
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
312 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered strong thunderstorms will be possible through the
  evening. Locally heavy rains are the main hazard, with a small
  5-10% probability of damaging winds or large hail.

- A chance of non severe thunderstorms Friday into Friday
  night.

- Another round of thunderstorms Sunday into Sunday night, which
  could be strong. And yet another round of stronger storms
  Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

A line of thunderstorms has developed along a line from Sioux
City southward to Beatrice, moving slowly east. These are
likely in response to what remains of a couple of MCVs combined
with the upper trough remaining in region. 0-6km bulk shear
remains on the lower side at 25 to 35 knots today, with MUCAPE
1000-2000 J/kg. This is all developing within a moist PW axis
of 1 to 1.5 inches. It seems the primary concern will be
localized flooding with these storms as they appear to be robust
rain producers with a southwest to northeast storm train
occurring. This cluster will continue to move slowly eastward
through the evening and have fairly high 60-80% Pops as it
pushes into southwest IA.

Meanwhile, the frontal boundary to our west between Ainsworth
and and Oneill with storms going up along it. Models time this
into northeast NE by 6-7 pm, and continue a storm chance along
the boundary mostly in northeast NE north of a line from
Columbus to Onawa. And across southeast NE, behind this initial
surge or rain, there may not be much behind it overnight.

For Friday, We`ll have a continue chance of showers and
thunderstorms that lingers into Friday night. The severe
weather threat seems low during this time with SPC keeping just
general thunderstorms forecast. High temperatures Friday should
only reach the lower 70s.

Saturday during the day should be a beautiful day with highs in
the upper 70s to lower 80s. Another quick moving wave could
bring additional thunderstorms to the area Saturday night,
which could linger into Sunday morning. Another short wave
moving through the region could bring additional Thunderstorms
Sunday night that lingers into early Monday morning. SPC has a
15% probability for severe storms to our north, but the CSU
machine learning models would indicate a higher probability for
severe weather into our area. High temperatures both Sunday and
Monday in the lower to middle 80s.

There is another pretty strong system coming into the area
Tuesday which could bring more thunderstorms into the area,
which could be on the strong side.

Forecast confidence by Wednesday and Thursday next week is
pretty low as the ECMWF has a strong closed low over the Mid
Missouri Valley while the GFS has a ridge. NBM has a chance of
rain on Wednesday but dry on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

Fairly busy TAF set with showers and storms early in the TAF
period, then transitioning to MVFR and possibly IFR at KLNK/KOMA
10-14z. Initial push of showers seems to be moving past KOFK at
TAF issuance, but becoming more widespread in the vicinity of
KLNK. Thunderstorms will be possible at KLNK 19-22z, and KOMA
21-01z, and KOFK 01-03z. Beyond that, confidence just isn`t
there to put precipitation in the forecast this far out.

&&


.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Darrah
AVIATION...DeWald