Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 312125
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
325 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

SNOW AND HEADLINES ARE THE MAIN PROBLEMS IN THE SHORT TERM AND HAVE
KEPT PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS.

A 90 KNOT JET MAX WAS ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST US AT 12Z. ANOTHER AREA OF STRONG WINDS AT 300 MB WAS FROM
NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND RECENT RAP MODEL INITIALIZATIONS SHOW A CLOSED LOW DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS BAJA. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED FROM WESTERN
NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN COLORADO AND ANOTHER WAVE WAS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST FROM MONTANA. A 12 HOUR 500 MB HEIGHT FALL MAX OF ABOUT
130 METERS WAS OVER MONTANA AND ANOTHER AROUND 100 METERS WAS NEAR
THE MEXICO/NEW MEXICO BORDER. SO THIS IS A FAIRLY COMPLEX SETUP...
WITH SOME PHASING OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

MOISTURE HAS BEEN RETURNING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AREAS OF
SNOW OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO
HEADLINES...ADDING A FEW COUNTIES TO THE WARNING IN THE NORTH.
IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE (850-700 MB SPECIFIC HUMIDITY VALUES 3-4 G/KG
AT 6 PM THIS EVENING...FALLING TO 2-3 G/KG BY 12Z SUNDAY) ALONG
WITH GOOD FORCING SHOULD ALLOW FOR SNOW AMOUNTS FROM ABOUT 4 TO 9
INCHES IN MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED
NORTH AND EAST. AS COLDER AIR SINKS IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT (WHICH EXTENDED FROM WISCONSIN BACK INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON)...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AND ROADS
WILL START TO ICE UP/BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLICK. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD START SLIDING TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY SUNDAY. STRONG NORTH SURFACE WINDS WILL LIKELY ALSO CAUSE
SOME BLOWING SNOW LATER TONIGHT AND AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

HEADLINES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY IN NEBRASKA AND UNTIL 9 PM
SUNDAY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA. IT IS POSSIBLE THESE MAY BE CANCELLED
EARLIER THAN THAT...BUT THAT IS WHAT WE WILL GO WITH FOR NOW.

SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST AND LIFT PULLS OUT OF THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE AND
WITH CLEARING SKIES HAVE LOWS FALLING OR AROUND ZERO...OR EVEN
BELOW ZERO IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE MONDAY. KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF SNOW NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF OMAHA...BUT NOT A BIG DEAL. A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF SNOW ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY. 12Z GFS SEEMED A BIT TOO HIGH
ON QPF TUESDAY...BUT WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND NEXT FEW MODEL
RUNS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

LOOK FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD. FAST WEST/NORTHWEST
MID LEVEL FLOW WILL OCCUR EARLY...WITH A RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN US. THIS RIDGE SHOULD BUILD EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGHS
WILL BE 20S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY
OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

IFR CIGS HAVE SETTLED IN AT ALL THREE TAF SITES AS OF 18Z AND
WILL LIKELY REMAIN SO FOR MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT
LIFR CIGS FROM TIME TO TIME AT KOMA AND KLNK ALREADY. LOOK FOR
LIGHT RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE KOFK AREA AFTER 19Z WHILE A RAIN SNOW
MIX WILL CONTINUE AT KOMA AND A BETTER CHANCE OF MOSTLY RAIN SNOW
MIX WILL CONTINUE AT KOMA. ALL SNOW HAS BEEN OCCURRING AT KLNK
BUT EXPECT A CHANGE BACK TO A RAIN SNOW MIX AFTER 22Z. THEN
OVERNIGHT...IN THE 02Z TO 04Z TIME RANGE...LOOK FOR CHANGEOVER TO
ALL SNOW. HAVE BROUGHT IN PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW WITH VISBY DOWN
TO 1/2 SM AFTER 04Z. AFTER 11Z WINDS WILL HAVE SHIFTED TO THE
NORTH AND WILL GUST TO 30KT OR BETTER. SNOW WILL TAPPER OFF AND
BECOME LIGHTER IN NATURE...BUT COMBINED WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW AFTER 12Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     SUNDAY FOR NEZ011-016-017-030>033-042>045-050>053-065>068-
     078-088>093.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY
     FOR NEZ012-015-018-034.

IA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY
     FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-080-091.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     SUNDAY FOR IAZ079-090.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...MEYER



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