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000
FXUS63 KOAX 162335
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
635 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 530 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

WINDS SHOULD DECREASE LATER BUT BASED ON CURRENT OBS WENT AHEAD
AND PUT OUT A WIND ADVISORY FOR A FEW HOURS. SOME WINDS ARE
SUSTAINED AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUST OVER 40 MPH. ALSO LIGHT SHOWERS
OF RAIN AND SNOW NOTED NOW FROM KOFK TOWARD KSUX AND KTQE. SCT
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES MAY OCCUR TOWARD KOMA AND KLNK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

FRONT IS MAKING STEADY PROGRESS INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND
TEMPS BEHIND IT HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S WITH 30S NOT TOO FAR
AWAY. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THUS
WILL CONTINUE THE WIND AND FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...BUT WILL TRIM BACK A FEW COUNTIES WHERE
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS. IT`S ALSO WINDY
BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL PROBABLY
LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY STILL BE
A FEW SPRINKLES IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THROUGH 6PM.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS DECREASE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. THE NEXT WAVE OF INTEREST...CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
4 CORNERS REGION SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
THURSDAY REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION ACROSS KANSAS AND
MISSOURI...WHILE NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEAST. OVERALL
POOR MIXING ON THURSDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED.

A WEAK WAVE MOVING OUT OF NORTHWEST FLOW COULD TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY IN OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES...BUT BETTER FORCING EXISTS FURTHER NORTH. RETURN BREEZY
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WHICH SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS INTO THE
MID/UPPER 60S. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...WHICH IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE AT PEAK HEATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GENERALLY FELT THE
NAM WAS TOO FAST WITH IT`S FRONT ARRIVING ABOUT 6 TO 12 HOURS TOO
SOON. WILL KEEP SATURDAY MORNING DRY...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASING ALONG THE FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT DRIFT
SOUTHWARD TOWARD I80. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY...AND GIVEN
SEASONAL TRENDS...THERE`S PROBABLY AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IS SOMEWHAT
WEAK. MODEL DISCREPANCIES MANIFEST BY SUNDAY AND BEYOND AS GFS IS
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE FRONT MOVING SOUTH...BUT ECMWF IS
SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER...WHICH WOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES WELL INTO
SUNDAY AND EVEN INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. IN THE ABSENCE OF
ANY UPSTREAM KICKER...AM INCLINED TO GO WITH A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF THE ECMWF. BY MONDAY...GFS HINTS AT ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
MOVING INTO THE AREA...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW OVERALL. RIDGING
ALOFT BUILDS IN FOR TUE. THERE IS A WEAK WAVE DEPICTED BY BOTH
MODELS...THUS COULD BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOMETHING DEVELOPING IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES ALSO WARM BACK IN TO THE
MID/UPPER 70S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25KTS SUSTAINED WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 04Z...THEN CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
MVFR CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO KOMA AND KLNK. MVFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE PREVALENT THROUGH 12Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
     030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
     079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY