Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 271715
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1215 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Monday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

Pcpn chances are pretty much in place through the majority of the
forecast period with particular focus over the south/east CWA.
Going POP forecast looks good overall...but have made some modest
adjustments here and there. Beginning on Sunday...The NAM is most
aggressive lifting pcpn into the srn CWA during the morning hours
associated with weak impulse lifting through KS. Meanwhile the GFS
and CMC generally focus pcpn over nern KS and nwrn MO. At this
point will opt to remove morning POPs and go with low-end chance
POPs in the aftn. Again on Sunday night...the NAM as opposed to
the GFS/ECM/CMC is the most aggressive depicting strong 305K
upglide inducing pcpn within the CWA. Will trim back POPs a bit in
light of this. Monday/Monday night...the NAM/GFS/ECM all finally
come into general agreement a weak impulse undercutting the ridge
will help induce additional round of pcpn. However...because of
increasing hgts associated with building upper ridge confidence is
low areal coverage will be as great as what is being projected.
Thus...prefer again to go with low-end chance POPs.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

GFS and ECM are in decent agreement large scale flow will turn
relatively stagnant through the extended periods with an upper
ridge prevailing across the conus. Because GFS/ECM QPF fields are
all over the place...along with a ridge aloft...feel comfortable
to remove some of the token small pops...mainly over the ern CWA.
Toward next weekend...upper ridge axis is progged to gradually
shift east allowing for a modest warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS for KOFK...KLNK and KOMA.)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

The early-morning low clouds and fog have since diminished with
the onset of deeper boundary-layer mixing. VFR ceilings (fl035) may
linger at KOMA for the next hour or two before becoming scattered.
Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to persist through the forecast
period with prevailing southerly surface winds. The exception
could be at KOMA around sunrise on Sunday when MVFR visibilities
due to fog are possible.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...Mead



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