Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 211733

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1233 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Sunday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Temperatures through the weekend will be the main focus of this
forecast as our rather tranquil weather pattern continues.

Mid level trough was progressing into the Ohio Valley region this
morning, with northwest flow in its wake across the middle of the
country. Farther west, upper ridging was noted over southern
California and Arizona. This main ridge axis is forecast to slide
east toward the lee of the Rockies by late Sunday. This pattern
keeps our area under zonal or weak ridging pattern through the

A couple of systems riding the northern periphery of the ridge are
expected to track along the US/Canadian border, one today and one
Saturday. Both will push trailing weak cold fronts south into
Nebraska and Iowa Friday night and Saturday night. Effects of first
front will be short-lived as flow returns to southerly early
Saturday and 850 temperatures rebound quickly, while second boundary
plunges farther south maintaining cool advection across our area all
day Sunday.

For today, south winds will kick up later this morning and 850 temps
gain about 4C by this afternoon. However mid and high cloudiness
associated with northern wave will limit insolation for a time into
the afternoon. Still should see highs into the 60s most areas with
the coolest readings potentially holding in the 50s in western Iowa.
We gain another 5C or so at 850 Saturday afternoon with more
sunshine expected, so have highs in the 70s with light south winds.
Winds will become north or northwest early Sunday with continued
cool advection dropping 850 temperatures 4C between 12Z and 00Z.
However we should see full sun, so have highs a only a few degrees
cooler than Saturday, ranging from the mid 60s north to low 70s

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Mid level flow pattern will begin the longer term period with ridge
axis overhead, but will quickly shift east as a potent shortwave
ejects into the Plains. Strong warm advection pattern sets up late
Monday night, suggesting elevated convection is possible from
northeast Nebraska and north. Better chances for widespread showers
and thunderstorms come during the day Tuesday into Tuesday night as
shortwave and attendant surface low roll through eastern Nebraska
and southwest Iowa. 00Z GFS indicates MLCAPE approaching 1000 j/kg
in southeast Nebraska Tuesday afternoon with precipitable water
values approaching 200 percent of normal. Will maintain our
categorical precip chances then. Trough axis moves east of western
Iowa early Wednesday with zonal or slightly northwest flow through
Thursday offering little in the way of additional precip potential.

Temperatures through the extended period should remain near or
slightly above normal, generally in the 60s and a few lower 70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period with a few
high clouds and southerly surface winds.




LONG TERM...Dergan
AVIATION...Kern is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.