Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 291840
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
140 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 216 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Departing upper level shortwave to our northeast will leave
nearly zonal flow in it`s wake allowing fairly quiet conditions
for a short time period. At the surface this morning, a broad area
of high pressure was present to our southeast with a very
weak/broad area of low pressure across the High Plains. With
little in the way of upper level forcing, a few scattered showers
were sliding east across Nebraska but this activity continues to
dissipate as it moves east. Low level warm air advection expected throughout
the day with modest mixing to allow temps to max out in the lower
to mid 80s this afternoon. Main question for later today is if any
scattered convection can develop and if so, where? Main focus
seems to be along an east/west low level boundary extending across
northern Nebraska by this afternoon. Other potential storms could
develop in response to shortwave energy over central Kansas and
spread north into southeastern Nebraska through the evening.
Fairly low forecaster confidence in either of these scenarios so
have broad brushed slight chance pops and hopefully we can refine
this throughout the day.

A northern stream trough will move into the Northern Plains
sending a fairly strong cold front into our area overnight Monday
into Tuesday morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorm expected
along this boundary Monday night into Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 216 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

The above mentioned Northern Plains shortwave will continue to
slide east into Wednesday morning allowing continued cold air
advection across the Central Plains. Dry conditions will follow
with surface high pressure building overhead on Wednesday. Region
will be under northwest flow aloft into the weekend as an
amplified ridge builds across the western CONUS. Temperatures
should remain slightly cooler than normal through the extended
with mostly dry conditions except on Saturday along a weak front.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 18Z Monday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible after 06z as short wave energy
begins to approach from the west but expect activity to remain
rather spotty until more organized and better forcing arrives
later on Monday beyond the end of the period.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kern
LONG TERM...Kern
AVIATION...Fobert



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