


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
223 FXUS63 KOAX 282352 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 652 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A 30-40% chance of storms exists primarily over northeast Nebraska after 3 AM. Some storms may be strong to severe with damaging winds being the primary hazard through sunrise. - Showers and storms linger Sunday morning, with redevelopment likely (50-70% chance) in the afternoon and evening hours. Once again, a few storms could be strong to severe, and heavy rainfall may also occur. - Dry conditions expected for Monday. A 20-40% chance of rain returns late Tuesday into Wednesday and again Thursday into Friday. Temperatures cool slightly Monday before warming to the low to mid 90s by the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 354 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Today: Water vapor imagery this afternoon depicts broad, quasi-zonal flow across the CONUS only mainly interrupted by deepening across northern Montana. A messy surface pattern continues to be in place, with a local center of low pressure over south-central South Dakota that connects to a deeper low over eastern Colorado by a surface trough, with increasingly high dewpoints as you approach central Iowa. Dewpoints in our neck of the woods continue to hand in the upper 60s to low 70s, making temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s feel more like 95-100 degrees. We`ve still got a few hours of good heating underneath mostly clear skies to bump up those values a bit more, with heat indices anticipated to top out at 100-105 degrees from 4-5 PM. The main concern of the evening and overnight will be convection that is expected to develop across north-central Nebraska and South Dakota between 6-7 PM, bringing severe storm chances to the area. As we begin to lose day time heating and start decoupling the boundary layer, surface-based convection will lose favor as a bit of 700 mb moisture takes over as the launching point of new storms. Though they are expected to be elevated, we`ll possess a very dry layer at 850 mb that balloons our DCAPE value to around 1600 J/kg at midnight. Joining with that strong wind potential, a few of the recent CAM runs (especially with the HRRR) have depicted a more resilient storm cluster to march across southern South Dakota, inducing a meso-high that will travel with it. That meso-high may work with the surface trough/lower highs along it to produce a locally strong pressure gradient that could enhance outflow from the MCS and bring gusty winds approaching 70 mph to areas of far northeast Nebraska. This strong outflow may also extend well south of the convection as well, with the main variable as to how strong winds get being how close to the northern portions of the forecast area will be to the MCS (and as a result meso-high and its enhanced pressure gradient force). As of now, our best chance for those winds is well into the morning hours, at 5-7 AM. Most of the other convection is expected to stay the north and west. Sunday: CAMs become increasingly split as to the state of the atmosphere over eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa tomorrow morning, which will entirely be dependent on how far MCS from the central and western portions of Nebraska/South Dakota can push eastward. A second hot day is becoming increasingly uncertain, we deal with convective debris for at least portions of the forecast area. Regarding overall storm development and progression, a couple of scenarios do seem apparent: Scenario 1 favors a cluster of storms from central Nebraska to be over the forecast area 6 AM tomorrow morning, bringing moderate rain to portions of the forecast area centered along the Platte River, lasting into the late morning. This would sap our instability for the latter portion of the day, keeping afternoon convection at bay to the south while our remaining chances occur overnight along the nose of the low-level get. This scenario would minimize the severe risk for the area, though a storm or two could produce strong winds or a 1" hailstone. Scenario 2 would have a very limited area of convection across the forecast area, favoring widespread storms to the north and a few pop- up storms across southeast Nebraska through the morning. Limited reductions to the instability would favor potential redevelopment of storms during the late afternoon hours into the evening, eventually taking supercellular storm structures upscale into an MCS that would then progress along a theta-e axis that extends southwards int Kansas and Missouri. This scenario seems the more likely out of the two, and would pose the greatest risk for severe weather and potentially heavy rain, with the severe risk being from 6 PM to 2 AM while the heavy rain risk would only be during the initial development phase from 5-9 PM before it becomes progressive in its sweep southward. Monday and Beyond: After the overnight convection sweeps southward, Monday`s rain chances will entirely rest on the southern edge of the deepening shortwave that pivots through the area during the afternoon hours. From there, we`ll enjoy a cooler Monday with a gradual heating trend through the rest of the week as a stubborn cutoff low spins over the California Coast and amplifies ridging to the east of it and into the Central Plains. Rain and storm chances look rather murky but certainly not out of the question as convergence of the High Plains will serve as a jumping point for MCSs that could drift east and affect the area in some way. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 652 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 VFR conditions this evening with southerly winds weakening over the next few hours. There is a great amount of uncertainty in storm potential overnight into Sunday as we don`t have a great handle on how the weather will pan out over the next 12-24 hours. There are two primary potential scenarios. The first is a line of storms dropping south out of South Dakota overnight tonight, bringing storms through the terminals starting around 01Z at KOFK and down to KOMA and KLNK around 10-12Z. The second scenario is that we see either an isolated storm or two, or even no storms overnight then another round of storms firing up around 15-17Z. Leaning more toward scenario one than two right now, but not confident enough for impacts to the terminals just yet to include in the TAFs. Will update TAFs once we get a better idea of timing and location of storms overnight. In either case, the rest of the TAF period is looking fairly quiet with VFR conditions through Sunday afternoon, with more storms expected to develop beyond 00Z, the end of this forecast package. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Petersen AVIATION...McCoy