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000
FXUS63 KOAX 270249
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
949 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

Manual analysis of 12z upper-air data revealed an intense mid to
upper-level low over Ontario into the upper Great Lakes with an
amplified upstream ridge from western Canada into the Great
Basin. In the low levels, an elongated anticyclone stretched from
the northern Intermountain Region into the southern High Plains as
of early afternoon. Diurnal deepening of the boundary layer has
promoted the downward transfer of higher momentum flow aloft with
gusty west-northwest being observed across the area again this
afternoon. Expect these winds to quickly diminish this evening
with clear skies allowing overnight lows to fall into the lower
to mid 40s.

Tomorrow (Tue), west-northwesterly downslope flow in the low
levels will allow for slightly warmer high temperatures (compared
to today) with gusty surface winds again developing by afternoon.
On Tuesday night into Wednesday, an intense vorticity lobe will
pivot through the western semi-circle of the Great Lakes cyclone
with an associated surface cold front advancing southwest through
the mid Missouri Valley during that time frame. Modest cold
advection will persist through the day Wednesday with highs in the
mid to upper 60s. A surface ridge axis will build into the area
Wednesday night, potentially allowing temperatures to dip to near
40 degrees in favorable locations over the northern CWA. The
surface ridge axis will persist over the region into Thursday with
high temperatures in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

A deep-layer cyclone over the Ohio Valley at the onset of the
extended period will slowly return north into the Great Lakes by
this weekend while an upstream ridge weakens over the Great
Plains. This pattern will yield continued dry conditions with
daytime highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s and overnight lows in
the mid 40s to lower 50s. By Sunday into Monday, 12z medium-range
guidance is in relatively good agreement in depicting the
eastward movement/expansion of a broad trough through the interior
west and Rockies. This upper-air pattern evolution will encourage
the poleward flux of a more moist air mass through the Plains with
an increasing chance of thunderstorms late Sunday into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS for KOFK...KLNK and KOMA.)
Issued at 948 PM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF cycle, with clear
skies and unrestricted visibility. Light west to northwest winds
tonight will become northwesterly at around 10-14kt on Tuesday
afternoon, then weaken again after sunset.

&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Mead
LONG TERM...Mead
AVIATION...Mayes