Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 240908
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
408 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(today through Thursday)
Issued at 407 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Latest radar trends show storms will move out of the County
Warning Area by 9z. Along, but mostly south of, the
Nebraska/Kansas border storms will continue for the next few hours.
The 00z upper air maps indicate the area remains under large scale
southwest flow with the main upper level trough just now coming
onshore along the western CONUS. Several shortwaves will continue
to push through the area, creating an unsettled weather pattern
through the week. A significant amount of moisture is in place
across the region as +10C 850mb dew points have surged north, well
into Minnesota in fact. While a severe threat exists most days
this week, the potential for very heavy rainfall shouldn`t be
lost. Where the heavy rain and subsequent flooding will occur
will depend mostly on where storms develop and if any repetitive
storm motions occur.

For today the big question is when, and if, new development will
occur. The shortwave trough responsible for the previous nights
weather will push east into central Iowa early this morning. A
temporary rise in mid-level heights should allow for a lull in
precipitation this morning. Opted to slowly increase
precipitation potential by this afternoon as the next shortwave
enters central and eastern Nebraska. Some convective models keep
the area mostly dry, while others bring a large MCS across eastern
Nebraska and into western Iowa. Despite the uncertainty feel
comfortable enough to have high precipitation chances by late this
evening through the overnight hours.

With little change in the weather pattern on Wednesday or
Thursday, expect more of the same. Diminished precipitation
chances through the morning, then new development by afternoon
with continued storms through the night. A significant heavy
rainfall threat will exist these days as well.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 407 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

For Thursday night the large scale pattern continues to point to
a heavy rainfall threat, and probably more so than previous days.
A strong low-level jet should allow for significant moisture
transport to begin sometime after 03Z Friday. Placement of the
surface warm front will be key to pinning down where the biggest
threat is. Right now the best available moisture, as shown by high
PWAT anomalies, is situated across far eastern Nebraska and
southwest Iowa. Thereafter there is little opportunity for dry
weather until late Saturday night when the main upper trough has
pushed through the area. This appear short-lived as southwest flow
develops again as another western trough forms, putting the area
once again into an unsettled pattern for Sunday night and possibly
into Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS for KOMA...KLNK...KOFK through 06Z Wednesday)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Thunderstorms will move east of KOMA and KLNK TAF sites early in
the period. Then a period of VFR conditions will occur before MVFR
cigs/vsbys overspread KLNK/KOMA...with some brief IFR vsbys in fog
possible between 10Z and 15Z. KOFK will likely see IFR vsbys in
fog during that time as well. Expect vsbys and cigs to improve to
VFR during 15Z to 18Z time frame. The attention turns to the
potential for thunderstorms again Tuesday afternoon or evening.
There is some question exactly when storms will fire near TAF
sites, with the most likely time after 00Z.


&&

.OAX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pearson
LONG TERM...Pearson
AVIATION...Dergan


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