Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 161726
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1126 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 334 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Satl imagery this morning was showing near zonal flow extending
across the CONUS. At the surface...a wedge of high pressure was
situated across the Plains.

Tonight...increasing isentropic upglide coincident to boundary layer
moisture axis extending from eastern KS into western IA. Sounding
profiles are more conducive for light drizzle initially Friday
morning and mainly over the IA CWA where condensation pressure
deficits will be least. Dry then during the afternoon hours. A
cold front is progged to drop into the northern CWA Friday
evening. Soundings at that time indicate the column will be
saturated enough to support rain. Precip activity...possible
rain/snow mix at times...expands then over the rest of the CWA
through Saturday morning. Given the amount of moisture feeding
into the region...a few locations might well rainfall amounts of a
tenth of an inch or so. Dry then Saturday/Saturday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 334 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

Only minor tweaks applied to the extended periods as medium range
models continue to show a progressive pattern well into next week
with no significant systems moving through to induce precip.
Otherwise...looking highs at or just above normal ranging from the
upper 40s to low 50s. Lows also just above normal ranging from
the mid 20s to low 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1123 AM CST Thu Nov 16 2017

VFR conditions will continue through this evening, with southerly
to southeasterly winds increasing to around 10-15kt and some gusts
up to 20-25kt possible, mainly at KOFK/KOMA. Ceilings will
deteriorate to at least MVFR at all sites late tonight, and
potentially to IFR at KOMA/KLNK. Have included a period of
drizzle/mist and reduced visibility possible at KOMA/KLNK in the
morning, coinciding with the potential for the lowest ceilings.
Conditions could improve at KOFK by midday, but have held off
improvement at KOMA/KLNK through 18Z Friday.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...Mayes


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