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000
FXUS63 KOAX 241749
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1149 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES...
WINDS...AND IF A WIND HEADLINE IS NEEDED.

THROUGH SUNDAY...A 170KT H3 JET OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AND DIVE SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WEAKENING TO
110KTS OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY. AT H5...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILS WILL RIPPLES IN THE FLOW BECOMING MORE OF AN ORGANIZED
SHORTWAVE/CLIPPER OVER SOUTH DAKOTA.

BY 00Z TONIGHT...WITH 120M HT FALLS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA BY
00Z...DEEPENING TO 170M HT FALLS OVER MISSOURI BY 12Z SUNDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FURTHER ORGANIZES OVER IOWA/NRN MISSOURI
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE AROUND 1000MB. THE GFS IS
SLIGHTLY QUICKER AND STRONGER THAN THE NAM AND SIMILAR TO THE
EC/GEM.

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND
TRACK OF THE PRECIPITATION SWATH THAT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE DAKOTAS
INTO MINNESOTA/IOWA THEN EASTWARD TOWARD OHIO.  THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE RAIN THEN MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
IS INITIALLY WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID RAIN...THEN GETS COLD
ENOUGH FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE ENDING. WE/LL SEE INCREASING MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS CHANCES MOVING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...SWINGING THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND THEN SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX
CHANCES INTO SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT...A TRACE TO A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH MOST SPOTS 0.05 OR
LESS. THE BAND ACCUMULATING 1-4" SNOW SHOULD BE WELL TO OUR
NORTHEAST...FROM MINNESOTA INTO IOWA AND ILLINOIS. THE WWD
GRAPHICS HAVE THIS AREA HIGHLIGHTED FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES.  THERE MAY
BE SOME MINOR AMOUNTS IN SHELBY/EASTERN POTTAWATTAMIE AND
MONTGOMERY COUNTY...HOWEVER THE PRECIP WILL MAINLY BE OVER BY THE
TIME IT IS COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW.

THE NAM H85 WINDS INCREASE FROM 25KTS AT 00Z TO 45 TO 50KTS WHILE
THE GFS IS A LITTLE STRONGER.  THE NAM MET HAS SFC WINDS ONLY
INCREASING TO 19KTS AT OMA WHILE THE GFS MAV HAS 25KTS. THERE IS
NOT A LOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION...HOWEVER WITH THE EXPECTED
MOMENTUM TRANSFER...THE NAM WINDS APPEAR TO BE UNDERDONE. HAVE
SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO 24 TO 28KTS TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
STRONG 15-25KTS INTO SUNDAY. WILL PASS THIS ON TO THE DAYSHIFT AS
 A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
HAVE LEFT DRY FOR NOW WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. LOWERED HIGHS FOR
SUNDAY WITH EXPECTED CLOUDCOVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. COLD
TEMPERATURES ARE SHORT-LIVED AS WARMER AIR RETURNS FOR MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

MID LEVEL RIDGING PERSISTS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50S. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD TOUCH OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER.
COOLER HIGHS ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND STILL A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH MORE OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT.  MUCH COLDER HIGHS FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS IS STILL ON TRACK
TO MAKE A QUICK SWEEP ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. BETWEEN 01Z AND 03Z EXPECT
WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWEST AND GUSTY...GUSTING 30KT TO 35KT AFTER
08Z. PERIODS OF -SHRA WILL BEGIN AT KOFK BY 05Z SPREADING INTO
KOMA AND KLNK BETWEEN 08Z AND 11Z. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AT ALL THREE TAF SITES MAINLY BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. MVFR
CIGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES BETWEEN 05Z AND
11Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MEYER