Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 190328

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1028 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(tonight through Friday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

A small chance for showers Wednesday or Wednesday night, then cooler
temperatures gradually warming Friday, are the primary forecast

Surface high pressure settling into the Plains this afternoon has
kept mostly sunny skies and light northwest winds across our part
of the country. Temperatures at mid afternoon were mainly in the
60s with a few lower 70s noted. Scattered clouds in northeast
Nebraska and west central Iowa displayed a cellular look on
satellite, and are expected to dissipate around sunset. Meanwhile
at mid levels, broad trough was sliding into the Rockies with a
100-120kt 300mb jet extending from Utah into eastern South Dakota
and the Great Lakes region.

Mid level trough is forecast to drift into the Plains on
Wednesday with trough axis shifting just east of our area by 12Z
Thursday. Mid level warm advection ahead of axis is forecast to
commence in western Nebraska this evening, then spread across
eastern Nebraska on Wednesday, and eventually southwest Iowa
Wednesday afternoon and evening. Layer moisture will be somewhat
limited with forecast soundings showing scant moisture below 850
through Wednesday night. However moisture in 850 to 500 layer will
be sufficient to squeeze out scattered showers as upward motion is
maximized beginning in the morning in northeast Nebraska, then
spreading southeast across the rest of eastern Nebraska and
southwest Iowa by the afternoon. Any precipitation should be east
or southeast of southwest Iowa by 12Z Thursday.

Otherwise we should be seeing cooler temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday as Canadian air spills into the region, characterized by
850 temperatures dropping from 8-11C this afternoon to 2-4C by
Thursday afternoon. Clouds and precipitation will help halt
warming on Wednesday as well. Have highs Wednesday still in the
60s, with 50s expected Thursday. A return to rising mid level
heights and light southerly low level flow by Friday suggests
highs back into the 60s then.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Our rather tranquil weather pattern is forecast to continue this
weekend into early next week with little if any precipitation
chances. Broad mid level ridging is forecast to dominate the middle
of the country at least into Monday night before southwest flow sets
up in the High Plains Tuesday. We could see an impulse ride into
our area then, promoting warm advection shower chance. But the
main weather story Saturday through Tuesday will be generally
clear skies and high temperatures mainly between 65 and 75 on


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1026 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF cycle, with light and
variable winds becoming northerly at around 5 kt this afternoon.
Should see ceilings lower from cirrus to mid-levels (around
10-15kft) this afternoon at KOFK. Potential for showers around
KOFK remains low confidence, with some models dry, some producing
showers in the area in the afternoon to evening, and some
producing showers in the evening to overnight. Have left mention
out of KOFK for now, given the uncertainty, but would think
showers would still be in VFR range of visibility and ceilings.




LONG TERM...Dergan
AVIATION...Mayes is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.