Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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327 FXUS63 KPAH 311900 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 200 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - An unsettled weather pattern is forecast to remain in place this weekend and next week, resulting in on and off chances of showers and storms. - Temperatures are expected to remain near to a bit above average. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Weak mid level impulses will move northeast across the area through tonight, as a shortwave trof over the Plains approaches from the west. The shortwave and associated surface low pressure system will move across the area Saturday, resulting in a very high (greater than 80 percent chance) of rain and isolated storms later tonight through Saturday afternoon. On Saturday there is a marginal risk for severe storms per the Storm Prediction Center. Forecast parameters not overly favorable for severe convection, given weak overall lapse rates. There could be some downburst winds given the instability and forecast moist vertical profiles, but mostly non-severe with less than ideal differential theta-e. We should see PoPs on the decrease later Saturday through Sunday. However, we will leave some slight chances in given the unsettled look in a few of the models. It could end up mostly dry. Next week a consensus of model output has our flow transitioning from zonal to northwest as an upper low deepens while moving east along the U.S.-Canadian border. This pattern will support our continued chance of showers and storms along with slightly above average temperatures, as a series of upper level impulses move over our region interacting with a rather warm and unstable environment. The NBM captures this relatively well, so no real adjustments needed to its output for our forecast. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 142 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 VFR conditions will continue through 00 UTC with ESE winds 8 to 16 kts, with some higher gusts 20+ kts. Tonight, as rain chances increase, we will see MVFR to IFR conditions develop, especially after 06 UTC, and continue through Saturday, as winds become southeast 6 to 12 kts. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CN AVIATION...CN