Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 020439 AAB
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1139 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

NOT A CLOUD IN THE SKY WAS SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES OVER
THE PAH FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WAS CENTERED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY TONIGHT. ANOTHER NIGHT OF VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
EXPECTED. LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING WERE GENERALLY COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE...AND SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE NOT RISEN AS GUIDANCE
PREDICTED. THEREFORE...FORECAST LOWS WILL BE LOWERED A NOTCH FOR
TONIGHT. SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS COMING SOUTHEAST INTO MISSOURI THIS
AFTERNOON WILL OVERSPREAD OUR REGION TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS WILL
KEEP TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT AS LOW AS THEY DID THIS MORNING.

ON SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST...WHICH WILL
CAUSE LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP. 850 MB TEMPS WILL CREEP UP
A COUPLE DEGREES. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE QUITE A BIT
OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SATURDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUDS MAY
HAVE A SLIGHT EFFECT ON TEMPS. WILL KEEP FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID
70S FOR NOW.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAK 500 MB SHORTWAVE WILL PASS EAST ACROSS
ILLINOIS. SOME OF THE MODELS EARLIER THIS WEEK HAD BEEN
INDICATING A LITTLE LIGHT QPF ALONG THE INTERSTATE 64 CORRIDOR.
HOWEVER...THOSE INDICATIONS HAVE ABOUT VANISHED. EXPECT
CONSIDERABLE MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS...BUT PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE
KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE CLOUDS AND WEAK SOUTH WINDS WILL
RESULT IN LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S.

ON SUNDAY...THE MID CLOUDS SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH AS 500 MB
RIDGING INCREASES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE SLOWLY. HIGH TEMPS COULD NUDGE 80
IN SOME SPOTS...BUT FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE KEPT IN THE UPPER 70S.
SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND MILD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

NO SURPRISES IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK. STILL HAVE VERY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK...AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

AS AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER INTO QUEBEC BY THE END OF THE DAY MONDAY...A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL FLATTEN OUT AND BECOME STATIONARY FROM NORTHERN
MISSOURI THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. THERE IS NO
FLOW TO PUSH ANY CONVECTION OFF THE BOUNDARY AND TOWARD OUR
AREA...SO WILL KEEP MONDAY DRY. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS STILL HINT AT
SOME DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY...BUT THEY SEEM TO BE PUSHING THAT
FARTHER WEST...SO ONLY THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
COUNTIES WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE.

THE 12Z GEM AND ECMWF KEEP OUR AREA DRY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
RIDGE ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVERHEAD AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LIFTS WAY
NORTH OF THE REGION. THE GFS HAS DEVELOPED SOME QPF OVER SOUTHWEST
INDIANA AND THE PENNYRILE ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL DISCOUNT THAT
GIVEN THAT IT IS RIGHT UNDER THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH.

PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAD BEEN MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF LOOKS A
LOT LIKE THE GFS IN KEEPING THE TROUGH OUT WEST AND THE RIDGE
CENTERED JUST TO OUR EAST. NEITHER MODEL SPITS OUT MUCH QPF...AND
COULD PROBABLY ARGUE TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...BUT WILL CONTINUE
THE TREND OF INCREASING POPS FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
NEITHER MODEL HAS ANYTHING MORE THAN A MINOR DISTURBANCE IN WEAK
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...SO IT WILL NOT BE
SURPRISING IF WE END UP LOWERING POPS IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

STILL LOOKING LIKE 80 OR LOWER 80S WILL BE THE NORM EACH DAY NEXT
WEEK. WOULD NOT BE AT ALL SURPRISED IF THE GFS-BASED MEX MOS IS
RIGHT...AND WE CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 80S FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 60 FOR MOST OF THE AREA EACH
NIGHT...AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS WAFFLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...WHICH WILL FORCE ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
RETURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THAT WILL
ALSO HELP HOLD DOWN THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS EITHER CALM OR SOUTHERLY AOB 5 KNOTS AS
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SITS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MY
LONG TERM...DRS
AVIATION...JP



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