Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
FXUS63 KPAH 121832
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
132 PM CDT Sat Apr 12 2014
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 132 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
Breezy conditions will persist this afternoon with diurnal cu and
some high clouds present. Some variation of this coverage should
continue tonight, although cu should diminish. Mild overnight as
south winds stay up. Most of Sunday will be dry and breezy.
Increasing chances of convection by afternoon across the Ozark
Foothill region ahead of an approaching mid level s/wv forecast to
eject NE from the southern Plains.
The wave will move NE through the evening, resulting in increased
convective coverage. Best chance PoPs through midnight will be
over the west 1/2, then east of there after midnight. Instability
and shear parameters most favorable for isolated strong to severe
storms is west of the Mississippi River. Looks like a marginal
chance at best. Locally heavy rain possible, but not enough to
cause problems (very local, minor if anything). In the wake of the
lead s/wv, at the surface a front will move through, with the
trof`s at h8/h7 lagging just behind late Sunday night into Monday.
Surface temps should drop slowly post front through the day
Monday. Meanwhile, with the main upper trof to our west at 18z
Monday, and abundant low level moisture still present, cannot rule
out lingering light showers, or drizzle (light rain).
Monday evening, as the main upper trof moves through, chance of
showers/rain will move west to east across the area, best chances
east 1/2, departing the area by about 12z Tue.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 157 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
In the wake of the early week system, high pressure will build in by
Tuesday. This will result in a return to dry and unseasonably cool
weather during the mid week period. In fact, highs Tuesday are only
forecast in the lower to mid 50s. Frost will be possible Tuesday
night as clear skies and light winds allow temperatures to dip into
the lower and mid 30s by daybreak Wednesday.
The surface ridge will begin to shift east of the area on Wednesday.
Winds will back to the east and eventually southeast as a result.
This will yield a moderating trend as we head into late week. Highs
Wednesday will close in on the 60 degree mark, then surge well into
the 60s on Thursday.
The approach of upper level shortwave energy may result in our next
chance of showers and thunderstorms by Thursday night and Friday,
however confidence is relatively low at this point. The latest GFS
and GEM are much more amplified with the upper level system, while
the ECMWF is faster and weaker. Prefer to maintain the going slight
chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday night and Friday for
Issued at 1216 PM CDT SAT APR 12 2014
CU field expanded rapidly across the area late this morning and
expect VFR sct CU deck to persist through the end of the day, with
gusty south winds continuing, gusts 25-30 kts expected.
CU diurnal in nature, so we expect some decrease tonight, with
higher clouds persisting. Wind gusts should taper down, but
sustained values still near or above 10 kts at times. SSW low
level jet forecast just off the deck, so introduced LLWS for the
Gusts should pick up rapidly Sunday morning, from the south, in
the 20-30kt range. Still higher clouds, and perhaps VFR few-sct