Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 260835
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
335 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

The PAH forecast area will continue to be under the influence of a
mid level ridge today, meaning a warm, moist, unstable atmosphere.
An added component for triggering more showers and tstms again
today will be approaching mid level shortwave energy in the
westerlies across the Midwest, and its attendant surface cold
front, which should be knocking on our northwest door tonight.
This combined with increasing low level moisture advection today
should allow showers and tstms to develop generally from west to
east possibly as early as 11-12Z. Some tstms may be strong to
severe in the afternoon due mainly to the robust low level lapse
rates, which will tend to increase updraft/downdraft intensities.
Outside of storms and their outflows, heat indices are expected
to exceed 100 everywhere today, and may peak at 105 in isolated
areas. Will address this with an SPS.

As mid level heights continue to fall tonight, and drier, cooler
air wedges under the existing airmass, PoPs will peak at around
50% in the northern half of the PAH forecast area. This trend
will continue into Monday for the southern half as the airmass
change continues. A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out.

The remainder of the short term will be dry and steadily cooler
under northwesterly flow aloft. A possible exception to dry
conditions will be Tuesday afternoon, when parts of the southern
half of the region may actually receive measurable rainfall, as a
reinforcing shot of cool, dense, high pressure air associated with
a Great Lakes shortwave surges in to our region from the north.
This signal has been present in mainly the GFS model data for days
now, and is presently shown in more than one model.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Models continue to drive a strong front southward into the deep
south as a deep upper trof takes shape over the ne U.S. and Great
Lakes regions. As a result, we`ll see, at least for a few days, an
end to the heat and humidity. Confidence remains high that we will
be experiencing below normal temps by mid week, with high temps from
near 80 to the lower half of the 80s. Likewise, humidity levels will
be very comfortable.

By later Thursday into Friday/Saturday, models tend to diverge in
their solutions, and confidence wanes. The 00z operational GFS and
the 00z Canadian models want to bring another cold front through
during the day Friday, and then dries out the atmosphere with
another cooler area of Canadian high pressure over the weekend.
ECMWF wants to hang the front up over the area and paints a warmer
and much wetter start to the weekend. Given the expected mid/upper
nwly flow, I tend to think the front would have a decent chc of
pushing on through. However, given the time of year and respect for
the EC out in time, will probably need to go with a model blend for
now.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 335 AM CDT SUN Jun 26 2016

VFR conditions expected at all sites through the period, although
with the approach of a frontal system VCTS possible at all sites
starting around 17-18Z and prob30 TSRA from 00Z through the end
of the period. Some model indications are that showers/tstms could
affect the KCGI TAF as early as 14Z. Light and variable winds
early this morning will pick up out of the south southwest AOB 10
knots after 15Z.


&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...GM
AVIATION...JP/DB



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