Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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000
FXUS63 KPAH 021149 AAA
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
649 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM AS MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES OR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.

UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS FORECAST TO INDUCE A SURFACE LOW ON A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PUSH IT ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY. WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE...A HUGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING.

UNFORTUNATELY THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AND WAFFLE BACK AND FORTH OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA.
WITH NOTHING TO DISPLACE THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND A NON-STOP
BARRAGE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. KNOWING THE NORTHERN AND/OR
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES STARTING TONIGHT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD STILL A BIT DICEY AS ONLY THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE IN THE FIRST
PERIOD. BEYOND THAT THERE IS QUITE A VARIANCE. EVEN WITH MODEL
DISCREPANCIES...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PART OF OUR CWA WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF GETTING WET WILL BE THE SOUTHERN HALF.

WITH SO MUCH CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IN THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD...TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
TIMING OF PRECIP OUTSIDE OF MAX HEATING.

WE CONTINUE TO LOCATED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
US WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINED ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION. SUNDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA PROVIDING YET ANOTHER CHANCE OF STORMS. IN CONTRAST
FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SET I INTRODUCED A DRY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION. HOWEVER ANOTHER TROUGH LAY JUST
UPSTREAM AND COULD BRING STORMS BACK TO THE AREA MONDAY WITH MAX
HEATING. LEFT A SLGT CHC IN MONDAY NIGHT BUT MAY BE ABLE TO DRY THAT
OUT AS WELL...IF WE CAN ESTABLISH SOME CONTINUITY IN THE MODELS. AS
WE APPROACH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ANOTHER POSSIBLY STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL BRING STORMS BACK TO THE REGION.

AS FOR TEMPS WENT A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER
AND ALMOST A PERSISTENT NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
FLOW ALOFT WOULD ALSO TRANSPORT ANY SMOKE FROM THE CANADA FIRES OVER
THE REGION. THIS WOULD KEEP HIGHS A LITTLE BELOW EXPECTED VALUES AND
LOWS A LITTLE ABOVE.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT KEVV/KOWB THROUGH 15-16Z...THEN MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS AT ALL SITES WITH THE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 18-23Z AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BEYOND THAT MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AOB 10 KNOTS BY
21-22Z.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ008-009-011>013-
     016-017-021-022.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...JP
LONG TERM/FIRE WX...KH



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