Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
488 FXUS65 KPUB 300532 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 1132 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe thunderstorm risk continues this evening for the southeast plains and returns again for Thursday along and east of I-25 with large hail and damaging winds the primary risks. - Thunderstorms return for Friday across the plains with a few strong storms possible, though CAPE values start to come down - Drier and warmer weather spreads in for the weekend into early next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 908 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024 Updated to expire the Severe Thunderstorm Watch that was in effect until 9 PM for portions of the Plains. For the most part, convection has dissipated. There is one lone cell that continues to shift eastwards towards Kansas over eastern Prowers County. This cell is likely producing hail near 1 inch in diameter, and has shown off an on rotation. This cell will continue east into Kansas through 10 PM. Mozley && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 204 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024 Severe thunderstorm risk continues into the evening across the southeast plains, especially to the north and east of a surface low/dry line developing and kicking eastward to the south of Pueblo. Upper trough to the north will keep the majority of the forcing north of the area, resulting in more isolated convection initially across southeast CO late this afternoon. However as thunderstorms move eastward, dew points in the 50s will yield CAPE values 1500+ J/kg, particularly to the east of a Kim to La Junta Line. Max CAPES off HREF could exceed 2000 J/kg and combined with deep layer shears around 30-40 kts will result in hail up to 2 inches in diameter and wind gusts 60 mph or greater especially across our eastern counties. Although SRH isn`t particularly high, some quick stretching of vorticity on any boundaries could result in a short lived landspout or tornado. To the west of the developing surface low/dry line, drier low levels will result in less CAPE but more DCAPE with damaging wind gusts from higher based convection the primary risk. Models prog southeasterly winds into El Paso county until the surface low moves eastward this evening and this may help maintain sufficient CAPE for hail up to 1.25 inches in diameter into the early evening. Models develop/merge thunderstorms into a cluster/MCS across eastern KS as the low level jet strengthens this evening. Will maintain some scattered pops near the border until 06z before diminishing overnight as activity pulls eastward. Passing upper trough to the north will send a cold front southward through the plains on Thursday with low level flow shifting around from the east in the afternoon. Dew points decrease behind the front initially, but moisture advection brings a return of 50 dew points into southeast CO by afternoon. How far west the low level moisture returns will determine the westward extent of the severe weather risk for Thursday. HREF mean CAPE values off 12z run shows 1000 to 2500+ J/kg by afternoon to the east of La Junta, though there is the possibility for higher CAPEs to return into El Paso/Pueblo counties as well. Deep layer shears are still running around 30-40 kts supportive of strong to severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds the primary risks. Consensus suggests greatest risk east of a line from Calhan to Kim with locations to the north of highway 50 being more favored. Models suggest another thunderstorm cluster will develop and drop southeastward across the plains during the overnight hours which will maintain thunderstorms across the plains into the early morning hours. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 204 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024 General trend in the long term will be drying and warming through the period. Residual low level moisture across eastern areas Friday and Saturday will be sufficient for rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoons and evenings across the southeast mountains and plains. Deep layer shears are still running around 30- 40 kts given westerly flow aloft, but CAPE values come down a tad as dew points mix out into the 40s each afternoon. This should decrease storm strengths some, though can`t rule out a strong storm or two. An upper trough moves across on Sunday bringing hot, dry and breezy conditions to southern CO. This could result in some spotty critical fire weather conditions for the lower elevations of the Wets and Sangre De Cristo mountain fire zone where fuels are last reported as critical across the lower elevations. Otherwise temperatures will warm into the 90s for next week with the potential for upper ridging taking hold mid to late week somewhere across the southwest or southern Rockies. Temperatures may get knocked back slightly behind a dry cold front for Wednesday, though highs will remain above normal. -KT && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1132 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024 KCOS and KPUB..VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of tonight and into tomorrow, before chances for showers and thunderstorms move in tomorrow afternoon. Winds will be light tonight, before becoming easterly tomorrow morning. Chances for showers and storms in the vicinity of KCOS will be highest from 20Z until 02Z, and from 23Z until 02Z at KPUB. MVFR ceilings and visibilities, along with lightning and gusty winds will be possible with any storms that move over or near either station tomorrow. KALS...VFR conditions are expected for KALS for the next 24 hours. Light westerly and northwesterly winds are likely through most of the forecast period. Some showers and weak thunderstorms will be possible along the terrain surrounding the station, though chances of any storms moving within the vicinity are low at this time. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...MOZLEY SHORT TERM...EHR/KT LONG TERM...KT AVIATION...EHR