Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 181726

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1126 AM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 526 AM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

...Cooler and Less Windy but Still Local Red Flag Conditions...

The cold front that moved through overnight has definitely helped
the fire situation.  Humidities have shown decent recovery in
response to the cooling temperatures and winds have really been shut
down for the time being.  The airmass has cooled off enough for
temperatures to fall back to near averages for this time of year.
Winds and humidities will generally be much less wicked than
yesterday across most of the area.  However, the plains of Las
Animas and Otero Counties will not quite stay out of red flag
territory.  Models have been persistent on keeping this area "in the
red" for one more day.  So, have hoisted a Red Flag Warning for this
area from 1 pm to 7 pm today.  Elsewhere, we could be looking at
local near critical conditions at times but, for the most part, red
flag criteria should not be met.  The Junkins Fire will be in this

Tonight, an upper disturbance will move through the northern
Rockies.  This disturbance looks on course to drop initially rain
showers but then 1 to 4 inches of snow across the central mountains
above 9500 feet overnight.  The area of snowfall accumulation will
most likely be from the Cottonwood Pass area northward but some
accumulation will also be possible down to about Monarch Pass.  Just
dry elsewhere overnight with cooler air filtering into the region.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 526 AM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

...Dry conditions to persist...

Wednesday and Thursday...Brisk winds across the higher elevations
will remain a concern Wed through Thu morning as a trough passes to
the north of Colorado. A cold front is forecast to drop down the
eastern half of the state Wed morning, serving to keep max temps for
both days in the 50s and 60s for much of the forecast area. It will
also drop temps overnight Wed into Thu to right below freezing for
most locations.

Friday through Monday...Ridge of high pressure over the desert SW
will gradually slide to the east over the weekend, with the ridge
axis expected to cross Colorado on Saturday. Dry and warm through
the end of the extended period, with max temps forecast to be in the
upper 70s to lower 80s for the plains, and 60s to lower 70s for the
high valleys. High level winds are expected to start
strengthening again on Monday. Moore


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1123 AM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Winds at the KALS
taf site will remain gusty from the SSW with gusts up to 25 kts
until 02Z. KCOS and KPUB will see breezy south to southeast winds
with gusts to around 20 kts. Winds at KCOS and KPUB will decrease
by 01-02z and shift out of the north. A dry cold front will move
across the area bringing a north wind shift to KCOS and KPUB
around 09-10z. Gusts up to 25 kts will be possible along/behind
the front. Winds on Wednesday will shift around from the east on
Wednesday with speeds under 15 kts.


Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ230-232-233.



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