Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 171013

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
413 AM MDT Fri Mar 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Fri Mar 17 2017

A flat ridge will be over the area today as a weak disturbance
moves over northern CO and southern WY.  The upper level ridge will
rebuild over the area tonight.  Highs today across the southeast
plains will be around 10 degrees cooler than yesterday, in the wake
of a front.  However, the temps will still be around 15 degrees
above average.  Look for highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s across
the plains, and in the 60s in the high valley locations.

The NAM and GFS continue to indicate the possibility of some light
showers over some of the mountain areas this afternoon and early
this evening, thus will leave the mention of showers in the

Dry conditions and generally above average temps can be expected

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Fri Mar 17 2017

Models in good agreement through early next week with differences
between the GFS and ECMWF. These differences will play a large
role on if the Eastern Plains sees much in the way of
precipitation next week.

Saturday and Sunday...flat upper level riding will continue to
dominate the area through the weekend. The main concern will be
the potential for dangerous fire weather conditions across the
Eastern Plains. On Saturday, humidity values will be low, however
winds do not look overly strong. There may be a few areas of near
critical conditions, but not widespread enough to warrant fire
weather highlights. This will need to be monitored. By Sunday,
the gradient tightens across the region in response to an upper
disturbance passing to the north. This will enhance mixing and
lead to widespread dangerous fire weather conditions by late
Sunday morning. Locations over the Eastern Mountains, the I-25
corridor, east into the Plains will see the most dangerous
conditions. Any outdoor burning is highly discouraged.
Temperatures this weekend will be quite warm with 80s for highs,
with perhaps a few locations approaching 90 on Sunday.

Monday and upper level storm system is forecast to
take shape over the western states early next week. Embedded
disturbances are forecast to eject east across Colorado in the
southwesterly flow aloft. This will likely lead to isolated shower
activity over the mountains, spreading northeast into northern
Colorado, but will likely keep our Eastern Plains dry. Snow levels
will be high Monday into Tuesday with maybe an inch above 12000
feet. Cooler temperatures are also expected Monday into Tuesday
with highs in the 60s and 70s across the Plains.

Wednesday into Thursday...attention turns to the upper disturbance
forecast to move across the area mid-week. Both the ECMWF and GFS
have the disturbance, but are considerably different on strength
and storm track. Both models have moisture moving into the
Continental Divide on Wednesday. The GFS brings a strengthening
low across the desert southwest and lifts it across Eastern
Colorado Wednesday night into Thursday. It also bring a strong
cold front south across the Plains with strong winds, colder air
and showers, including the potential for heavier rainfall over the
Palmer Divide, south. But the ECMWF ejects an open wave across
Colorado and fails to wrap it up as it lifts into eastern
Nebraska. This would bring a period of rain and snow to the
mountain areas, but likely keep all precipitation well north of
our Plains. The cold front would be much weaker and less cold air
filtering south into the area. There is still much uncertainty
with this storm system and it will need to be watched. It should
also be noted that the 18z run of the GFS was much more like the
ECMWF.  Mozley


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Fri Mar 17 2017

VFR conditions can be expected at the terminal forecast sites today
and tonight.


Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
for COZ221-222-225>233-235.



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