Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 301748
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1148 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

PRECIPITATION IS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER BANKED UP ACROSS
THE SE MTS/PLAINS AND UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY EARLY THIS
MORNING.  ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING IN
SPOTTY AREAS ACROSS THE PLAINS...THEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
LARGELY DONE FOR THE SE PLAINS BY 12Z.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHWEST TODAY WHICH WILL BE
TRANSLATING EASTWARD TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP CO UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE BACK OVER UT MOVING ACROSS CO
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  CONVECTION SHOULD BE SPARSER IN COVERAGE
TODAY...THOUGH THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WITH SE
UPSLOPE FLOW TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON.  COVERAGE LOOKS GREATEST NEAR THE SOUTHERN CO BORDER
DUE TO BETTER PROXIMITY TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND WITH EASTERLY
FLOW HAVING PENETRATED INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY...EVEN PORTIONS OF
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY COULD SEE A BIT MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.  DEW
POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE LOWER EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SE MTS SHOULD YIELD THE HIGHEST CAPES OF AROUND 500-
NEAR 1000 J/KG IF MOISTURE CAN HANG IN.  DEEP LAYER SHEARS WILL BE A
RESPECTABLE 40 KTS...BUT WITH CAPE THE LIMITING FACTOR SMALL HAIL
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY OF THE
STRONGER STORMS TODAY.  HIGH RES MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION TIED TO
THE MTS AND ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF I-25
TODAY...WITH COOLER AIRMASS LIKELY KEEPING ATMOS TOO CAPPED ACROSS
THE PLAINS.  SOUTHEAST PLAINS WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE WESTERN
MTS/SAN LUIS VALLEY.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING OFF INTO THE
40S AND LOWER 50S FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH 30S AND A FEW
UPPER 20S FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN AREAS.  -KT

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

IT STILL APPEARS THAT A WARMING AND GENERAL DRYING TREND WILL
COMMENCE DURING THE LONGER TERM WITH POPS...TEMPERATURES AND
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM THREATS AT TIMES THE PRIMARY
METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES.

RECENT LONGER TERM TRENDS INDICATE THAT UPPER RIDGING TO
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT
FROM SUNDAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...VARYING
DEGREES OF EASTERN COLORADO LEE-SIDE TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE POSSIBLE FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...HAVE DEPICTED GENERALLY LOW GRADE PRIMARILY
HIGHER TERRAIN AFTERNOON AND EVENING POPS OVER THE CWFA THROUGH
NEXT FRIDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EASTERN SECTIONS(ESPECIALLY
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT) AS PROJECTED LOCALIZED
CAPES...LIS AND 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 3000 J/KG...-7C AND 50
KNOTS RESPECTIVELY. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR CLOSELY.

IN ADDITION...BASICALLY ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED DURING THE LONGER TERM WITH WARMEST CONDITIONS
PROJECTED TUESDAY. FINALLY...GENERALLY LOW-GRADE GRADIENT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST DISTRICT FROM SUNDAY
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT SAT MAY 30 2015

STRATUS CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT OVER THE PLAINS...AND
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ALL AREAS 18Z-19Z. ANOTHER ROUND
OF ISOLATED TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MTS WITH VCTS POSSIBLE AT
KCOS THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCES LOOK TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION FOR
KALS AND KPUB AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY WITH SPEEDS UNDER 15 KTS. TSRA WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING WITH CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT
DIURNALLY DRIVEN DRAINAGE WINDS EXPECTED.

ON SUN...VFR ALL AREAS THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...THEN TSRA WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ONCE AGAIN. MAY SEE SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE
OF STORMS VERSUS SAT...WITH A VCTS POSSIBLE ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...PETERSEN


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