Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 061937
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1237 PM MST Wed Dec 6 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1230 PM MST Wed Dec 6 2017

Updated to add a few snow flurries to eastern mountains and
adjacent plains. Limited moisture with upper disturbance moving
south is just enough in cold air aloft to squeeze out some
flurries. This is seen in webcam images along US24 through Cascade
at this hour where the flakes are flying.

UPDATE Issued at 1152 AM MST Wed Dec 6 2017

Updated short term forecast with latest observations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 341 AM MST Wed Dec 6 2017

Currently...it`s quiet, cold and clear across Southern Colorado
early this morning. Temperatures have been running in the teens to
lower 20s across much of the regions, with single digits over
portions of the San Luis Valley.

Today...an upper level disturbance is forecast to drop south out of
Montana and into eastern Utah by this afternoon.  This will drop a
surge of cold air across the region by mid morning with northerly
winds over the Plains.  Temperatures will be cool this afternoon
with highs in the mid 30s to lower 40s.  An isolated snow shower may
be possible through this afternoon over the Central Mountains and
the Rampart Range.

Tonight...the upper disturbance will continue southeast across the
Four Corners region into Central New Mexico overnight.  Models in
decent agreement with a secondary frontal boundary this evening
turning flow northeasterly along the Eastern Mountain Lee Slopes.
This should allow for snow shower development over the Southern
Sangre de Cristo Mountains, east into the Raton Mesa region this
evening, and persisting through the overnight hours.  Upper
elevations of the Southern Sangre de Cristo Range will likely see 2
to 4 inches of snow tonight, with locally higher amounts.  Lower
elevations west of I-25 may see an inch or two through Thursday
morning.  Elsewhere, dry conditions are forecast to prevail.
Temperatures will be cold tonight with teens for the Plains, and
near zero for the San Luis Valley.  Mozley

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 341 AM MST Wed Dec 6 2017

...Unpleasant Thursday...

Shortwave in the northerly flow aloft will be located across nw
NM at the beginning of this period (12 utc THU). This system
appears stronger than earlier guidance and this will lead to a
better chance of precip along the CO/NM border, especially in
areas from the sw mtns...the southern San Luis valley and the
southern sections of the Sangre De Cristo mtns. some light
accumulations will be likely these regions, especially east slopes
of the southern Sangres. the best chance of precip will be in the
morning.

Later on Thursday, a band of moisture associated with warm air
advection aloft is forecast to produce another area of light precip
which will move south across the CWA during the afternoon and
evening period. The best chance of precip with this event will be
across the c mtns, the greater Pikes Peak area and once again down
along the CO/NM border (late). Accumulations will once again be
light.

Elsewhere across the region on Thursday, it is going to be
unpleasant, as it is going to be cold and windy over a good part of
the region. Most of the heavily populated areas in El Paso county
will remain below freezing all day Friday. and these cold
temperatures combined with wind gusts in the 30 mph range will
cause wind chill values to be in the teens during the afternoon
time period. Light snow showers later in the afternoon across this
region will only add to the outdoor discomfort. The remainder of
the plains will also be quite windy with highs in the 20s and 30s,
with the (relatively) warmer temperatures along the lower
arkansas river valley.

Thursday night will once again be cold and winds are expected to
keep up across a good part of the region. This will allow wind chill
values to be in the single digits and teens across the plains and
single digits and below zero readings in the valleys and mtns.

Friday it will warm up with max temps expected in the 50s across the
plains and  40s valleys, however it will remain quite windy over the
areas, with the strongest N-NW winds over the far eastern plains.

Through the weekend and into early next week the high amplitude
pattern will break down and the coldest air will shift well east of
the region, however the same general pattern (ridge over west coast
and trough over the middle of the country) will remain. Max temps
this weekend will be in the 50s to around 60 across the plains and
the winds will be much weaker.

On Monday it will continue dry but a weak front will affect the
region cooling the temps off a bit. For midweek it will warm up
several degrees once again and it will remain dry. It should be
noted that the GFS is a bit more aggressive with the system on
Monday, and if this verifies it could be colder and windier that
what the current fcst states, we could also see some showers on the
plains. /Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1053 AM MST Wed Dec 6 2017

Cold, dry northerly flow continues over the flight area. A weak
disturbance embedded in the flow may contain just enough moisture
for a few snow showers at times, mainly in and near the mountains
00z-12z. But, for the most part, VFR expected most areas next 24
hours including the KCOS, KPUB and KALS terminals.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...LW



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