Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 202246
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
346 PM MST Mon Feb 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 PM MST Mon Feb 20 2017

Deep upper trough moving through the central plains today, with nwly
flow aloft behind the departing trough across CO. N-NW surface
winds have been strong along the KS border today, and with a few
gusts still in the 20-25kt range and humidity down around 10
percent, will keep red flag warning in place for the far east until
expiration at 6 pm mdt. Winds will then decouple briefly this
evening before increasing again after midnight as surface pressure
falls in the lee of the eastern mountains. Usual breezy spots along
and west of I-25 will thus see increasing winds and mild temps, with
mins staying above freezing many locations. Mountains and interior
valleys will be slightly colder with less wind, though most
locations will remain above 20f. On Tuesday, main concern is
potential for at least spotty critical fire weather conditions along
the I-25 corridor, as wly flow aloft begins to increase. Usually
breezy spots along the Palmer Dvd and through the Arkansas
Valley from Canon City to Pueblo may see at least a brief period of
wind over 25 mph and humidity below 15 percent, but duration and
extent of critical conditions looks too short/sporadic at this point
to warrant a highlight. Other area to watch for fire danger will be
in the gap flow region from La Veta Pass east to Walsenburg, though
humidity over higher elevations may stay just above 15 percent. With
downslope warming and strong mid level thermal ridge developing,
expect max temps Tue to soar to record levels, especially along and
east of the mountains.

Tue night into Wed, weak upper energy and shallow mid level moisture
will combine to produce some rain/snow showers over the higher peaks
along the Continental Divide, though any precip amounts will be
light. Of more concern will be the increasing winds and high fire
danger over the I-25 corridor and across the eastern plains, as very
warm/dry air mass remains in place while surface and mid level winds
increase. Will hoist a fire weather watch for the I-25
corridor/Fremont county, and also include Otero/Crowley/ern Las
Animas counties as stronger winds spread away from the mountains in
the afternoon. Considered including lower elevations of the eastern
mountains, but held off as humidity may stay just above 15 percent.
Temps aloft cool just slightly for Wed afternoon, though max temps
area-wide will remain very warm, with near record warmth on the
plains.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 346 PM MST Mon Feb 20 2017

Not many adjustments required from previous meteorological
reasoning with primary issues during the longer term continuing
to be temperatures, pops and gusty winds at times as well as
localized elevated fire weather conditions for Thursday.

Recent longer term computer simulations, PV analysis and forecast
model soundings still indicate that a relatively dry and
continued unseasonably warm southwesterly upper flow pattern will
be noted over southern Colorado into Wednesday night with next
upper disturbance in combination with a healthy northerly surface
surge moving across eastern sections of the forecast district
Thursday night.

The upper disturbance and northerly surge is expected to impact
primarily western and northern to eastern sections of the CWA
with increased precipitation chances from Thursday(primarily
western sections) into Thursday night/Friday(favoring northern and
eastern portions at times).

In addition, localized elevated fire weather concerns are again
anticipated over portions of the forecast district Thursday and
WFO Pueblo will monitor trends/conditions closely.

Then, it still appears that next potentially stronger upper
system is projected to impact the forecast district(primarily
western sections) with unsettled conditions from later Sunday into
next Monday.

Regarding temperatures, generally near to below seasonal
temperatures anticipated from Thursday into at least the weekend
with coolest temperature readings projected from Friday into
Saturday(for example, locations such as Colorado Springs may
struggle to get out of the 30s both Friday and Saturday).

The highest potential for gusty winds over the forecast district
during the longer term are still anticipated from Thursday into
Thursday night and then again from Saturday into next Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 346 PM MST Mon Feb 20 2017

VFR conditions at all taf sites today and tonight. Winds in the lee
of the eastern mountains will begin to increase after 06z, and
KPUB/KCOS could see some gusty (15-25 kt) westerlies beginning Wed
morning and persisting through the day.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
afternoon for COZ222-226>233.

Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for COZ234-236-237.

&&

$$


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