Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 201025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
425 AM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Currently...quiet and calm conditions will prevail through the
morning hours across southern Colorado.  Winds are generally light
with mild temperatures in the 60s.

Today...high pressure will continue to build northward out of the
Desert Southwest into Utah and Colorado.  Water vapor satellite
imagery indicates and upper disturbance over northeast Utah that
will ride over the upper ridge and across Colorado through this
evening.  Expect hot temperatures to return to the area this
afternoon, with highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s across the
Plains.  A few showers and thunderstorms are expected over the
mountain areas by this afternoon, but coverage looks meager over the
higher terrain.

Over the far eastern Plains, model guidance suggests a dryline
developing by the afternoon, with elevated moisture and instability
east of a Sheridan Lake to Kim line.  High-res model guidance all
develop isolated thunderstorms along the dryline after 3 pm.  Modest
shear and very high CAPE values will likely allow one or two storms
to become strong to severe.  Lightning, large hail and very strong
outflow wind gusts are possible with the stronger cells.
Thunderstorm activity will quickly shift east into western Kansas
and the Oklahoma Panhandle by early evening.

One other area of note may be the Palmer Divide.  Most high-res
models develop isolated weak thunderstorms by late afternoon and
early evening.  It would not be surprising to see an isolated
thunderstorms over El Paso County later today.

Tonight...expect the upper level disturbance in the flow around the
ridge to quickly move east into Kansas tonight.  Any showers and
thunderstorms over the mountains will quickly dissipate with sunset
and loss of daytime instability.  Across the Plains, all activity
should be done by 8 pm, if not earlier.  Dry conditions will prevail
once thunderstorms dissipate and move away from the area as we head
into Wednesday morning.  Mozley

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Appears 500 mb heights and mid level temps will peak on Wed,
leading to max temps over 100f across the lower Arkansas Valley,
with 80s/90s elsewhere. Weak surface trough/wind shift over the
plains Wed afternoon may serve as a focus for a few stronger
storms, especially near the KS border, where greatest low level
moisture and instability will reside for another day. West of the
trough, over the mountains and I-25 corridor, isolated high based
tsra look possible, though large t/td spreads will mean most
activity will produce wind/lightning but little in the way of
rainfall. Upper ridge begins to flatten and shift westward Thu as
short wave trough moves across srn Canada, with surface cold front
into nern CO Thu afternoon and trough extending south along the KS
border. Best forcing for tsra Thu will be to our north during the
day, with nern CO/nwrn KS convection then pushing the front south
Thu evening, leading to an increasing chance of storms across the
plains overnight.

Cold front then pushes south through the area Fri morning, while
upper ridge continues its westward retreat. Should see cooler
temps areawide, with most pronounced cooling on the plains, where
maxes will be 10-15f cooler than Thu. With moist upslope in place
over the eastern mountains, expect at least isolated tsra Fri
afternoon and evening, though activity may stay fairly close to
the higher terrain, as air mass over the plains may be too cool
and capped to support much convection. Cooler air continues to
filter south across the plains Sat/Sun, with max temps well below
average both days. Temperatures farther west will see a less
dramatic fall, though most locations will be noticeably cooler.
While airmass over the plains will be fairly moist, fcst soundings
both Sat/Sun look rather unimpressive, with only minor CAPE and
rather capped appearance away from the mountains. Most models do
generate precip across the area through the weekend, though
suspect it will be more -shra or just areas of light rain versus
deeper convection, though eastern mountains could get unstable
enough to produce some tsra. Warming trend begins next week as
ridge begins to push back toward the Rockies, while enough
recycled moisture will remain in place to produce isolated
diurnal convection over the mountains through the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017

VFR conditions through the next 24 hours at all three terminals with
generally light winds. A few mid and high level clouds will move
across the area this afternoon.  There may be an isolated
thunderstorm late this afternoon or evening near KCOS, but
confidence is occurrence is very low at this time. Mozley




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