Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 110943
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
343 AM MDT Wed Oct 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Wed Oct 11 2017

Currently...quiet conditions exist across Southern Colorado early
this morning.  Temperatures are in the mid 30s to lower 40s across
the region under clear skies.  Expect these conditions to prevail
through sunrise.

Today and tonight...broad southwesterly flow will continue across
the region through Thursday morning.  Expect continued dry
conditions across the region.  Temperatures will warm nicely this
afternoon with upper 60s to lower 70 across much of the lower
elevations.  Dry conditions will continue through tonight under
clear skies.  Overnight lows will fall into the 40s for most of the
area tonight. Mozley

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Wed Oct 11 2017

An upper level trof over the western U.S. will keep dry, west to
southwest flow aloft over CO through Fri night.  Above average high
temps can be expected on Thu.  Early Fri, a cold front will move
through southeast CO and will result in high temps that are several
degrees cooler than on Thu over the plains, while in the mtn and
high valley areas, temps wl only be slightly cooler. Fri night and
early Sat, increased low level moisture over the southeast plains,
is expected to lead to low clouds and maybe some fog, so will
increase cloud cover.

On Sat, an upper level trof will move acrs CO, and late in the day a
cold front will move south through eastern CO.  There are some model
differences with regards to this trof, the ECMWF is deeper and a
little slower moving this system acrs the area than the GFS.  The
GFS keeps southeast and south central CO dry, while the ECMWF bring
pcpn to the eastern mtns and plains from Sat evening into Sun
morning.  For now, will go with the model blend which just has some
isold pcpn chances.  Temps should be much cooler on Sun and will be
about 10 degrees below average acrs the Southeast plains and
around 5 degrees below average in the high valley locations.

One other concern is that RH values are expected to fall below 15
percent over portions of the San Luis Valley Fri and Sat afternoons,
along with gusty winds, and Red Flag criteria could be met.

By Sun evening the upper trof should be east of the area, with weak
upper ridging and dry conditions and warming temps then expected
through Tue.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Wed Oct 11 2017

VFR conditions at all three terminals through the next 24 hours.
Mozley

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...MOZLEY



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