961
FXUS61 KBGM 061757
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
157 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A round of showers and a few thunderstorms will move out of the
area this afternoon. A few storms in eastern parts of the region
could still become severe, with strong winds as the main
threat. An upper level low will next bring an unsettled, cooler
and showery weather pattern for Friday through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
150 PM Update...
Precip is transiting the area more or less on time, though some
edits to the PoPs have been made to reflect ongoing trends.
Thunderstorms have been few and far between, though some
additional weak destabilzation is possible over SE portions of
the CWA (roughly east of I-81 and south of I-88), and the odd
strong to marginally-severe storm can`t be completely ruled out.
Line of showers/storms should still pull east of the area by
late afternoon.

630 AM Update...

As expected, showers have mostly cleared the CWA and we should
see a lull in activity for the next couple of hours. The next
round of rain and thunderstorms is expected to move into the
region by late morning, pushing east and exiting the CWA by late
afternoon. Updates to the forecast were minimal as most
parameters remained on track.


245 AM Update...

Scattered showers have moved across the region tonight. Removed
any mention of thunder from the forecast for the next 6 hours
thanks to overnight stability. Much of the heavy rain in the
area has stayed south of the CWA so the flooding threat tonight
has subsided. Temps tonight will remain warm thanks to clouds
and southerly flow keeping a warm, humid airmass in place. Lows
will be in the mid to upper 60s.

A brief lull in shower activity is expected from around sunrise
to the mid morning. The next shortwave and accompanying front
will move into the western portion of the CWA by late morning,
bringing scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorm
chances. Thunderstorms are expected to ramp up as they progress
eastward and daytime heating allows for instability to develop.
700-1000 j/kg of CAPE is expected to develop by early afternoon
ahead of the incoming front. Pockets of 0-6km shear values
around 30-40kts will allow for thunderstorm organization and
combined with the expected instability, severe thunderstorms
will be possible east of the Finger Lakes with gusty winds as
the main threat. Shear vectors are lining up somewhat perpendicular
to the expected storm motion, so these storms are expected to
be pretty progressive. While they will be progressive, PWATs
between 1.5 and 1.8 will allow for heavy downpours in these
thunderstorms that could lead to localized flooding across areas
prone to it. Storms are expected to be east of the region by
late afternoon. A few isolated showers may pop up across the
area during the evening and into the overnight hours as an upper
level trough moves into the area from the Great Lakes, but most
will stay dry. Temperatures today will climb into the mid to
upper 70s.

Cooler and drier air will filter into the region overnight
behind the front. Temps will fall into the mid to upper 50s with
some patchy valley fog possible.

Friday will be another day of unsettled weather as the upper
level trough moves overhead, with the trough axis just east of
us by the afternoon. Cooler air in the mid levels will provide
increased low level lapse rates that, combined with a weak
shortwave sliding through CNY and daytime heating, should kick
off afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms across the
region. Rainfall will be light thanks to a much drier airmass in
place, with up to 0.25 inches of rain expected. Temps Friday
will be cooler as WNW flow continues to advect Canadian air into
the region. Highs will climb into the mid 60s to low 70s, with
warmer valleys in NEPA hitting the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
350 AM Update:

Continuing the diurnal cycle of showers and thunderstorms,
coverage of showers will diminish Friday night with the loss of
daytime heating. However, with the upper level low located
almost due north of the area, there still could be some
scattered showers overnight, mainly across Central NY.
Elsewhere, partly cloudy skies are expected Friday night. Lows
are expected to be in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

The upper level low drifts eastward towards New England on
Saturday, which will allow for additional wrap-around showers
and possibly an afternoon thunderstorm. Thunderstorm potential
looks rather low Saturday afternoon with limited instability,
although there will be a ribbon of ample shear across the area.
Temperatures will be several degrees below normal with highs
only in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

Then coverage of showers diminishes Saturday evening once again
with the loss of daytime heating. However, this will be short-
lived with a shortwave approaching the area from the west.
Timing differences are present within the model guidance, but
showers will be increasingly likely the second half of the night
Saturday into Sunday. Once again cannot rule out a few isolated
thunderstorms Sunday afternoon, but instability will again be
lacking. Otherwise, another relatively cool day is in store
Sunday with highs only in the mid 6

A messy night as scattered rain showers move through the region,
bringing varying restrictions to our terminals.

IFR ceilings are expected at AVP/BGM/ELM later tonight as temps
drop to near the dewpoint. AVP should see a wind shift in the
next couple of hours that should bring upslope flow out of the
valley and up to the airport, lowering ceilings. Same goes for
BGM with southerly upslope flow bringing low clouds before
sunrise. ELM has been more tricky as guidance has been somewhat
inconsistent. Current MVFR vis that wasn`t forecast lead to
increased confidence in a period of IFR ceilings before sunrise.

During the late morning into late afternoon, a round of showers
and storms are expected to cross the CWA from east to west. The
highest confidence for TSRA is at BGM/SYR/RME so a PROB30 group
was added at these terminals. Confidence was not high enough to
include IFR in these TAFs, but a period of heavy rain could drop
vsby down to IFR for a period in the afternoon. Conditions at
all terminals should rise to VFR by mid to late afternoon as a
cold front pushes through the area.0s to mid 70s.

With the shortwave quickly moving east of the area, combined
with the loss of daytime heating, coverage of showers is
expected to diminish once again Sunday night with perhaps a few
lingering showers across Central NY. Otherwise, partly cloudy
skies are expected with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
350 AM Update:

Continued cyclonic flow will keep a chance for diurnally-driven
showers in the forecast through Monday and potentially into
Tuesday, but there will be an overall drying trend for the long
term period. By Wednesday, ridging and surface high pressure
should keep conditions dry and mostly sunny, although a weak
trough may re-introduce the chance for some showers Wednesday
night into Thursday.

Temperatures will be on a slow warming trend in the long term,
but will start out cool on Monday with highs only in the lower
60s to lower 70s. Then upper 60s to mid 70s are expected for
highs on Tuesday, and mid 70s to near 80 on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Showers and very isolated embedded thunderstorms are moving
across the area presently, with some brief IFR visibilities
having been reported. Could see some of the lower visbys move
into SYR and AVP in the next hour or two. Threat of stronger
thunderstorms looks to be east of a BGM-AVP line at this time.

All terminals will become VFR by the late afternoon as the
front pushes east of the region, as is already the case at
ELM and ITH. Could see brief BKN MVFR ceilings behind the precip
initially, then lower decks should mix out.

ELM is showing signals for fog overnight and given the expected
rain keeping the ground moist, fog occurring this past night,
partial clearing and calm winds gave enough confidence to
include IFR conditions in the TAF. There are some hints for fog
development at ITH and BGM, but confidence is still too low to
include it in this TAF set.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms look to return
Friday, though mostly after 18Z.

Outlook...

Friday Afternoon and Evening...Showers and thunderstorms with
some brief vis restrictions possible. Ceilings likely staying
VFR.

Saturday through Monday...Occasional showers with brief
restrictions likely.

Tuesday...VFR likely.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JTC/MPH
NEAR TERM...JTC/MPH
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...JTC/MPH