224
FXUS61 KBGM 081740
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
140 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Outside of scattered showers across northern counties this
morning, mostly quiet weather today as weak high pressure
builds into the region. Rain will return Saturday night through
Sunday, lingering into Monday afternoon. Drier conditions are
expected Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
130 PM Update...
Made some earlier changes to reduce PoP grids as showers pulled
out of the area and are not expected to redevelop. Expect mostly
cloudy skies to prevail through the afternoon.

630 AM Update...

Lake effect showers continue to stream across the northern
portion of the CWA, and should continue to do so into the late
morning hours. Forecast remains on track from this mornings
package and no significant updates were made.


340 AM Update...

Lake effect showers have moved into the region, with most of
the concentration along and north of the Mohawk Valley. Some
isolated showers are streaming across CNY and should for the
next few hours. Lake effect showers are expected to continue
through the morning hours, dissipating by early afternoon as the
airmass over the lake warms up and the lake response weakens. A
weak ridge building in from the SW will keep conditions mostly
quiet through the afternoon and evening hours, with a slight
chance for a pop up shower over areas north of the Southern Tier
and east of the Finger Lakes as the ridge will have less
influence over this region. Temperatures today will be
seasonable, climbing into the upper 60s to mid 70s.

Ridging does not last long as another trough rotates into the
region from the Great Lakes during the overnight hours. The
mid- level shortwave looks to be stronger than the one that
moved through Friday with better upper level support. Our CWA
will sit under the left exit region of the jet stream that will
be positioned south of the upper trough sitting over eastern
Canada. Widespread rain showers are expected to move from W to E
across the area Saturday night, bringing up to 0.25in of rain to
the area. Temps Saturday night will be in the low to mid 50s.

Steady showers exit to the east by late morning but shower
chances remain through Sunday afternoon as a weak shortwave
ripples through the area during the afternoon. The lift provided
by this feature combined with diurnal heating will allow for
scattered rain showers and isolated thunder to develop, moving
from NW to SE across the area. Temps Sunday will be a few
degrees cooler than Saturday, climbing into the mid 60s to mid
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
345 AM Update:

Cyclonic flow will continue Sunday night, but with the loss of
daytime heating, chances for showers will be diminishing. Lows
Sunday night are expected to be in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Another shortwave trough digging into the region will bring
another chance for scattered showers on Monday. With 850mb only
around +5C, it will be rather cool for June standards with
highs only in the lower 60s to lower 70s. Showers taper off
Monday night with the loss of daytime heating and the shortwave
moving east of the area. Lows are expected to be in the mid 40s
to lower 50s.

With the trough located just east of our area on Tuesday, there
still could be some isolated showers around for the Poconos-
Catskills, but the majority of the area will likely be dry with
partly to mostly sunny skies. Temperatures on Tuesday will
moderate somewhat with highs highs in the upper 60s to mid
70s. Then mostly clear skies with lows in the mid 40s to lower
50s are expected Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
345 AM Update:

Surface high pressure and upper level ridging will bring dry
conditions and mostly sunny skies to the area on Wednesday and
likely most of Thursday as well. A Canadian shortwave may spark
a few isolated showers Thursday afternoon, but the odds are that
Thursday will still be a dry day. Chances for showers start to
increase by Friday with the next cold front approaching the
area, but as is typical this far out, significant timing
differences are depicted within the model guidance.

With ridging in place, temperatures will be on a warming trend
in the long term period, with highs on Wednesday likely in the
mid 70s to lower 80s, and highs Thursday and Friday likely in
the upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Widespread fair weather cu and stratocu across the area, but
ceilings have lifted well into VFR range. Somewhat breezy W to
NW winds will continue through the afternoon, with gusts around
20-24 knots at times.

Expect VFR to continue into the evening hours with some mid
level clouds moving in and gradually thickening. An approaching
disturbance and weak developing warm front will cause showers to
develop in an east-west band across Central NY after about
03-05Z, with the main band of showers expected to arrive across
the area between 08Z and 11Z, pulling out between 14-16Z.
Showers will steadiest and visibilities lowest in NY, with
brief showers expected at AVP.

Ceilings will lower rapidly with precip onset, bottoming out in
the MVFR-Fuel Alt range for most sites. BGM could see brief IFR,
especially as showers pull out of the area Sunday morning. VFR
will prevail again after about 15-16Z area-wide.

Outlook...

Sunday Afternoon through Monday...Another round of showers
possible Sunday evening and again during the day Monday, but
with scattered coverage. VFR likely prevalent, especially
Sunday, but with some brief minor restrictions possible.

Tuesday through Thursday...VFR likely.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JTC
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...MPH