216
FXUS63 KBIS 051736
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1236 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong westerly winds today across much of North Dakota. The
  strongest winds today are expected in southwestern North
  Dakota with gusts up to 55 mph.

- Breezy to wind conditions to remain through Thursday, mainly
  in northern and eastern portions.

- Near to slightly below normal temperatures with mostly dry
  weather through this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Strong winds are starting to be found across western and central
North Dakota. There have been some isolated 60 MPH gust reports,
although for the most part winds remain within the bounds of
advisory levels. Will continue to monitor for any wind highlight
changes. For now updated the wind advisory to give gusts up to
55 mph in all areas of the CWA. Otherwise a few showers are
possible this afternoon in the north and east. SPC has kept
general risk of thunder out of the area. There does appear to be
some, yet weak, cape and lapse rates this afternoon although
generally goes on a decline as the day progresses. There also
seems to be limited lift today as the upper low is more in
Canada. Thus decided to keep messaging consistent with SPC and
remove thunder mention for this afternoon, although an isolated
thunderstorm is still possible.

UPDATE Issued at 1008 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Winds remain slow to increase, although are starting to increase
upstream in Montana and in some western North Dakota sites. Made
slight changes to wind forecast, although the Wind Advisory
still remains valid for today. This afternoon could see some
isolated showers develop in northern and eastern areas. There is
some weak instability and modest mid level lapse rates. This
could result in an isolated thunderstorm, although severe
weather is not expected today.

UPDATE
Issued at 630 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

There were some light rain showers in the east so PoPs were
updated for that. The winds out west are a little slow to get to
advisory level winds, but the advisory for the southwest has
started. Now that the sun is fully up, the boundary layer should
start mixing and winds will increase.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Somewhat zonal flow on the south side of a stacked low system in
southern Canada currently. High pressure is to our southwest in
Wyoming. A tight pressure gradient force and a weak cold front
this afternoon will produce very strong west winds, especially
in the southwest portion of the state of North Dakota. Winds
will gust as high as 55 mile per hour. We decided to go with an
advisory instead of a high wind warning because only a few
locations in the southwest could mix winds higher than 55 mile
per hour, and we just didn`t have the confidence in widespread
60 mile per hour winds to do a warning. So, we have a two part
Wind Advisory. The southwest portion starts at 10z and the rest
of the county warning area starts a little bit later in the
morning at 15z. The Wind Advisory (both parts) will expire at
02z. However it will remain breezy through the night, so make
sure you keep your objects secured still. This is because the
high pressure bubble will move west to east across the state,
starting right now. The west has already started gusting at 30
mile per hour, at the time of this issuance of the area
forecast discussion. Thursday will be breezy, but the winds will
not be gusting as high, just around 40 mile per hour in the
east, and around 30 elsewhere.

Temperatures today will be below average again thanks to the
northwest surface flow and the cold front already mentioned.
Aloft the flow will turn northwest with a large ridge building
around the Four Corners High pressure in the Southwest CONUS.
This ridge will last through the weekend with no push of warm
air to North Dakota by the thermal ridge. It stays mostly south
of here. So, even though we will have ridging, the high
temperatures everyday will stay at or below average through this
weekend. There will be slight (20 percent) chances for
thunderstorms in the far northeast, where the cyclonic flow is
still existing. The chances are this afternoon, and Friday
afternoon. After Saturday the flow aloft changes slightly. We
still have the ridge but now it is compressed by an upper level
low in southern Canada. Temperatures will cool even more for
Sunday as zonal westerly flow is over North Dakota. It is not
until Monday for when rain chances are possible with this low. A
cold front and shortwave rotating around the low move through.
For now we just have slight (15 percent) chances moving west to
east across the state Monday. Another ridge looks to move in
mid-week. This one is smaller and quick moving, but it will
bring warmer 850 millibar temperatures. So highs Tuesday and
Wednesday look to be above normal in the upper 70s and mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024

VFR and very windy conditions are expected today, with VFR and
breezy to windy conditions tonight into Thursday. Strong
northwest winds with gusts 40 to 50 knots are expected today
across most sites. VFR FEW to SCT clouds will also be found. An
isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible through this
afternoon, although confidence was not high enough to place in
TAFs at this time. Tonight, winds diminish to more breezy
conditions while VFR also remains. These winds may increase
again for Thursday, although not as high as today. VFR
conditions also look to remain on Thursday. LLWS is
possible tonight into Thursday but left it out for now except in
the KJMS area.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Anglin
DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Anglin