727
FXUS62 KFFC 050810
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
410 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 404 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

500 mb analysis reveals several vort maxes within the overall
shortwave-troughing pattern over the Southeast. Isolated to scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms have been occurring across portions
of the CWA overnight amid the humid, weakly-forced environment, as
well as upstream across portions of AL. Will likely see isolated
showers continue through the remainder of the morning hours.
Additionally, areas of fog have developed across portions of north
GA, with dense fog in portions of Gwinnett, Barrow, Jackson, and Hall
Counties.

These vort maxes will shift eastward through the day, and with the
help of daytime heating, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected this afternoon and evening. SREF progs MUCAPE reaching 1000-
1500+ J/kg and hi-res models prog mid-level lapses of 6.5 to near 7
deg.C/km, so updrafts should have no problem getting going. That
said, 0-6 km bulk shear generally less than 30 kts will limit storm
organization/intensity. SPC has the entire CWA outlooked in a General
Thunder risk, which makes sense, as the aforementioned ingredients
suggest the possibility of a few strong storms (with locally heavy
rainfall, frequent lightning, gusty winds, and small hail) but not
much of a severe weather (damaging wind and large hail) threat. Any
slow-moving storms or back-building storms that are especially
efficient rainfall-producers could cause localized flooding,
especially across north GA, where flash flood guidance is lower and
soil moisture is greater.

As the shortwave axis shifts eastward over the CWA overnight,
scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue. HREF and hi-res
models suggest decent instability (500-1000 J/kg) and mid-level lapse
rates of 6.5 to 7.5 deg.C/km, so the potential for a few strong
storms will persist overnight.

The flow aloft will become northwesterly tomorrow (Thursday), and at
the surface, a weak front will push into north GA. The day will
start off with essentially CWA-wide 30% to 50% PoPs, with PoPs
becoming maximized (60% to 70%) mainly along and south of I-20 in the
afternoon and evening, ahead of the front where instability and PWAT
will be greatest. SPC has the entire CWA outlooked in a General
Thunder risk again tomorrow, which makes sense given these
ingredients plus little to no 0-6 km bulk shear. A few strong storms
will be possible with the aforementioned hazards, especially across
central GA, where mid-level lapse rates are progged to be 6.5 to
around 7 deg.C/km.

As far as temperatures go, morning lows will be in the mid-60s to
lower 70s, and afternoon highs will be in the lower 80s to around 90.

Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 404 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

The long term period starts off with a bang, as a double-barreled
cold front sweeps across the area Thursday night. Shower and
thunderstorm activity is forecast to be shunted SE by the initial
front, with isolated to low end scattered activity SE of Macon
Thursday evening. Cooler air will filter into the area behind the
secondary front. As a result, Friday morning lows will only be about
3 to 5 degrees cooler than Thursday morning`s. With more sunshine
Friday versus Thursday, Friday`s high temperatures will be a bit
warmer. However, minimum relative humidity values Friday afternoon
will be a full 30% lower than on Thursday. As a result, Friday will
feel more comfortable.

The big story will be lows Saturday morning. Forecast daybreak
temperatures will range from the mid 50s in the NE mountains to the
mid 60s in the extreme SE portion of the County Warning Area. Due to
the urban heat island effect, lows in the Atlanta metro will be in
the lower 60s, but some of the suburbs will drop into the upper 50s.
Dry air on Saturday will continue to make temperatures more bearable.

After a brier warm-up, another upper level trough and associated
surface front will approach the area from the NE late in the weekend.
Showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front will enter NE GA late
Saturday night, with precipitation spreading across the remainder of
the area on Sunday. The best chance of rain will be Monday afternoon
across the S portion of the area as the front works on daytime
instability. Rain will come to an end behind the front from the NW
late Monday night and Tuesday, as drier and slightly cooler air
filters in. /SEC

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 143 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

Have VCSH at all TAF sites except CSG at some point for the
remainder of the overnight as there are iso`d SHRA and TSRA across N
and central GA. MVFR/IFR cigs (possibly LIFR at AHN) look to spread
over AHN and the ATL area sites between 08z-10z and persist until
14z-15z. AHN may also have MVFR/IFR vsby restrictions. Sct`d Cu field
is expected this afternoon along with iso`d/scat`d SHRA and TSRA
(covered by a PROB30 at all sites). Winds will be SSW to SW at 5-10
kts.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium confidence on morning cigs and timing/coverage of SHRA/TSRA.
High confidence on all other elements.

Martin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          86  69  85  66 /  40  40  40  10
Atlanta         86  71  86  68 /  40  50  50  10
Blairsville     78  65  80  60 /  50  50  50  10
Cartersville    85  68  86  64 /  50  50  40  10
Columbus        90  72  86  70 /  30  50  60  10
Gainesville     82  69  85  66 /  50  50  40  10
Macon           88  71  86  69 /  30  40  70  10
Rome            86  69  87  65 /  50  50  30   0
Peachtree City  87  69  87  66 /  40  50  50  10
Vidalia         90  72  89  71 /  30  40  70  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

$$

SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM....SEC
AVIATION...Martin