526
FXUS62 KJAX 040018
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
818 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 818 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Isolated showers may develop around the GNV terminal through
around 03Z this evening. Otherwise, periods of IFR visibilities
are expected at VQQ during the overnight and predawn hours. VFR
conditions will otherwise prevail at the regional terminals.
Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will
develop after 16Z Tuesday, mainly for locations to the west of
Interstate 95. Confidence was only high enough to include vicinity
thunderstorms at GNV after 21Z, where the Atlantic and Gulf coast
sea breezes will likely collide nearby during the late afternoon
and early evening hours. Confidence was otherwise only high enough
for vicinity shower coverage at the Duval County terminals, while
the SSI and SGJ coastal terminals likely remaining dry through the
period. South-southeasterly surface winds sustained around 10
knots early this evening will shift to southerly while diminishing
overnight. Light southerly surface winds will resume after sunrise
and will then shift to east-southeasterly by early afternoon on
Tuesday as the Atlantic sea breeze boundary moves inland, with
sustained speeds increasing to 10-15 knots after 16Z at the
coastal terminals and around 10 knots at the inland terminals
after 18Z.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(through Tonight)
Issued at 201 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Sea breeze merger convection will focus near and west of the I-75
corridor late this afternoon into the early evening, with drier
conditions toward the Atlantic coast. Main hazard will be locally
heavy rainfall due to slow storm motion. Deeper convection will
drift back toward the Highway 301 corridor through 10 pm as WNW
700-500 mb steering flow influences the storms, but convection
will rapidly weaken with the loss of diurnal instability.
Lingering convective debris clouds will likely limit shallow
ground fog potential across inland zones where rainfall occurs
today, but some patchy early morning fog will be possible toward
daybreak Tuesday especially in the usual suspect areas. Mild low
temperatures will range from the mid 60s inland to lower 70s
toward the St. Johns River basin & Atlantic coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 201 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

High pressure will be located to the east northeast on Tuesday. This
will yield a flow from the east southeast. Convection will largely
be diurnally driven Tuesday, with this activity spreading west
through the afternoon.

The high will move a little more to the east northeast Wednesday,
allowing the flow over the area to come more from the south.
Convection will be largely diurnally driven, with the sea breeze
interactions aiding in the activity. A secondary max in activity
will be possible late in the afternoon between I95 and I75, as the
east coast sea breeze moves inland to meet the Gulf sea breeze.

Tuesday night and Wednesday night periods are expected to be dry
after midnight.

Temperatures will trend a little above normal this period.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 201 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Thursday will be an active convective day, as the combination of
moist southwest flow and sea breeze interactions, combines with
convergence ahead of an approaching cold front from the northwest.
This front will pass southeast across the area Thursday night. A
secondary front will move southeast across the area Friday into
Friday night with convective chances mainly driven by convergence
along the boundary.

Long range models largely depict a dry period over the weekend, as a
high pressure ridge builds to the northwest. Can not completely rule
out convection over the weekend, as boundary will linger to the
east, and diurnally driven activity will be possible.

Weak ridging will be over the area into Monday, with low end chances
for convection driven by diurnal instability.

Temperatures will be above normal throughout this period. While
temperatures will still be quite warm Saturday and Sunday following
frontal passage, it will not be as humid with dewpoints generally
falling into the 55 to 65 range.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 201 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2024

High pressure will be centered to the east northeast through
Thursday. A cold front will move southeast across area Thursday
night, with a secondary front moving through Friday night. Weak
high pressure will build to the northwest over the weekend.

Rip Currents: Moderate through Tuesday

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  69  89  70  93 /  30  60  30  60
SSI  74  83  74  88 /  10  20  20  50
JAX  69  89  70  92 /  10  30  20  50
SGJ  71  85  71  91 /  10  30  20  50
GNV  66  92  68  93 /  20  50  20  60
OCF  68  94  69  94 /  30  50  20  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$