462
FXUS61 KRLX 291731
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
131 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper disturbance brings showers and storms today. High pressure
Thursday through Saturday. Disturbances bring showers and storms
late Saturday night into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 115 PM Wednesday...

A potent shortwave trough swinging along the base of an upper-
level low is tracking through the middle Ohio Valley and central
Appalachians. This is producing widely scattered showers across
the area, which will continue through early this evening.
Freezing levels are only around 7,000 ft AGL this afternoon, so
some heavier showers could produce some small hail. Severe
weather is not expected today, but there is a marginal risk of
excessive rainfall across the north. Flash flood guidance is a
little lower across northern WV (3hr FFG 1.25-1.5") where heavy
rainfall previously fell over the Memorial Day weekend.

Tonight will be chillier than recent nights with lows expected
to be in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Low stratus is expected to
develop over the mountains, and dense fog may also develop
overnight in spots where rain has fallen today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 AM Wednesday...

For Thursday, surface high pressure centered over the Great
Lakes extends south into the OH valley to provide fresh north
northeast flow through Friday. Therefore, expect mostly clear
skies, and below normal temperatures through Friday night.

Thursday`s highs will generally be in the mid 70s lowlands, ranging
into the mid 50s northeast mountains under plenty of sunshine. Lows
will range from the mid 40s lowlands, into the upper 30s northeast
mountains. Confidence on having patchy frost over the higher elevations
of our northeast mountains by Friday morning runs low.

Similar tranquil day expected Friday, perhaps a bit warmer afternoon
but still below normal for this time of the year. Highs in the mid
to upper 70s lowlands, ranging into the lower 60s across
the northeast mountains. Lows will generally be in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 250 AM Wednesday...

Upper level ridge takes control, providing dry weather conditions
for Saturday morning. However, the boundary layer flow veers from
the southwest Saturday and Sunday. Warm moist advection begins
Saturday as BL southwesterly flow increases. Clouds will invade the
area as moisture saturates the atmosphere from top to bottom
Saturday afternoon and evening, ahead of an approaching upper level
wave. This wave crosses the area Saturday evening through Sunday.
This feature will provide enough upper level ascent to sustain
showers and thunderstorms through the period.

Forcing departs by Monday leaving the region in zonal flow aloft
without any significant shortwave noticed. However, lingering
moisture leaves PWATs around 1.4 inches, with limited instability
under 1,000 J/kg, but strong deep layered shear and SRH. Therefore,
cannot ruled out at least gusty showers and widespread precipitation
Monday into Tuesday.

Near normal warm temperatures expected Saturday through Tuesday,
reaching the low to mid 80s across the lowlands.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 115 PM Wednesday...

Flight conditions will be a mixed bag of VFR and MVFR, and
potentially a few brief instances of IFR through the rest of
today. Widely scattered showers are moving through the region,
and they are expected to dissipate by this evening. Some of the
heavier showers can briefly reduce visibility to IFR. In
addition, west to northwest winds will be gusty through the
rest of the day, gusting up to 20 kts at times at some of the
terminals.

Low stratus is expected to develop over the mountains overnight,
and any location that sees rain today can also develop dense
fog overnight. However, we have low confidence in this because
the formation of fog will depend on where showers track later
this afternoon.

Low stratus in the mountains should gradually improve to VFR by
mid-morning Thursday. Across the lowlands, conditions will be
largely VFR Thursday.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium through this evening. Low confidence
overnight.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of showers/storms today may vary
from the forecast. Timing and extent of fog and low stratus
tonight may also vary.




EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR possible in early morning fog on Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMC