461
FXUS61 KRLX 121556
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1156 AM EDT Sun May 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure provides dry weather into the start of the new
work week amid a warming trend. Wet weather returns Monday
night lasting into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1107 AM Sunday...

Previous forecast package looks on track. No changes needed at
this time.

As of 225 AM Sunday...

After a chilly start, any lingering patchy valley fog should
dissipate in the first few hours after sunrise, and we`ll be
well on our way to a dry, mild, and mostly sunny Mother`s Day.
Highs will be a few degrees below normal, and forecast soundings
would indicate the potential for some 15-20 mile per hour gusts
in the afternoon. Clear skies and gentle S`ly or calm winds will
allow for lows near to a few degrees below normal tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 AM Sunday...

First half of Monday remains mostly dry under the influence of high
pressure off the coast of the Carolinas. A warm front will pass
through early leading to a warm day with temperatures above normal
for most locations; highs in the lower 80s will be common across the
lowlands.

Clouds will gradually increase from south to north during the day
though, due to the aforementioned FROPA and moisture advecting ahead
of a low pressure system over the Midwest. Precipitation chances
increase from the west in the evening with likely PoPs entering
overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1155 AM Sunday...

Drier conditions take hold for Thursday as high pressure surface and
aloft briefly builds in. There could be an isolated shower or even
storm however, from any lingering moisture behind departing system
and diurnal heating. Otherwise, another low will approach the area
for Friday into the weekend, with additional rounds of showers and
storms. This period also looks to be a period that will need to be
watched for localized water issues, with model soundings suggesting
deeply saturated profiles with tall skinny cape, however, it appears
as though this feature will not linger long, with drier weather
taking hold for Sunday, therefore have low confidence this far out
in terms of impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 650 AM Sunday...

Fog remained limited to some remote valleys last night, so aside
from a late-breaking `sunrise surprise` at EKN, it appears we
are in the clear with respect to that. The only other thing of
note regarding aviation will be the potential for some 13-20kt
gusts from the northwest during the afternoon hours today.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None anticipated at this time.




EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
EDT 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
Areas of IFR visibility or ceilings are possible in rain Tuesday
afternoon and night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...FK/ARJ
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...FK