Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 011528
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1128 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH TOWARDS OHIO RIVER TODAY...WITH UPPER
DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH TRIGGERING MORE STORMS. THE FRONT
THEN SETTLES FARTHER SOUTH...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1100 AM QUICK UPDATE...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE DRAPED ALONG THE I64 CORRIDOR FROM N
KY INTO W WV BEFORE TURNING UP N WV. QUITE A BIT OF LOW STRATUS
PERSISTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH IS MAKING FOR A
DREARY DAY THUS FAR FOR AREAS FROM HTS TO CRW TO BKW. STRATUS IS
BEGINNING TO MIX OUT ACROSS THE N LOWLANDS AND SUNSHINE HAS BEEN
OBSERVED ACROSS SE OH WHERE DRIER AIR HAS FILTERED IN.

CHANGES WITH THE MORNING UPDATE INCLUDE INCREASING SKY GRIDS
CONSIDERABLY ACROSS WV/KY ZONES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
HRS...PERSISTING LONGEST ALONG AND S OF I64 WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND LLVL MOISTURE UNDERNEATH INVERSION HAS DONE ITS DIRTY WORK.
REWORKED TEMPS THRU THIS AFTN TO REFLECT COOLER WX UNDERNEATH THE
STRATUS. HOWEVER...MODELS ARE INSISTENT ON MUCH OF THE STRATUS
MIXING OUT LATER THIS AFTN. STILL SEEING SOME SMOKE UP HIGH
ESPECIALLY OVER KY. AS FOR PRECIP CHANCES...HAVE JUST SOME
ISOLATED SHRA S OF I64 FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN
TO RAMP UP LATE THIS AFTN ACROSS NE KY...SW VA...AND THE S COAL
FIELDS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY
SLIPPING A HAIR FURTHER S AND BECOMING MORE ENGERGIZED WITH
INCREASING LLVL CONVERGENCE FROM APPROACH OF A DISTURBANCE ALONG
WITH THETA E ADVECTION. DID ALLOW FOR THUNDER ACROSS THESE AREAS
BUT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE HELD IN CHECK GIVEN LACK OF GOOD HEATING
DESPITE THE THETA E ADVECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD FEATURES AN ACTIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE AREA
BENEATH THE UPPER LEVEL SRN STREAM FLOW. TEMPERATURE AND
STABILITY GRADIENT WILL FLUCTUATE IN POSITION BUT REMAIN MORE OR
LESS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A FRONT OSCILLATES OVER
THE SRN PORTION OF THE AREA. IT...AND UPPER LEVEL RIPPLES WILL
FOCUS BETTER PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ACROSS THE S...AS THEY CROSS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS BOTH THU AND FRI.

PW VALUES ARE ACTUALLY PROGGED TO BE HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
MUCH OF THE TIME...1.5 INCHES OR EVEN HIGHER AT TIMES.
HOWEVER...CAPE IS PROGGED TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA MUCH OF THE TIME DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THEN
ALMOST ABSENT ALTOGETHER DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SPC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOKS REFLECT THIS WITH MARGINAL RISK
MAINLY S OF THE AREA BOTH DAYS.

MODELS AND CENTRAL GUIDANCE SHOW HIGHEST QPF ACROSS SRN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA WITH PEAK AMOUNTS ANYWHERE FROM 1.5 TO 3 INCHES
INCLUDING THE NEAR TERM. THE GFS IS THE ODD MODEL OUT...SHOWING
THE MAXIMUM AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL TO NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ITS
PEAK AMOUNTS ARE 3 TO 5 INCHES.

WILL CARRY MENTION OF POSSIBILITY FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUANCE IN THE HWO.

TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED. SMALL
TEMPERATURE RANGES WITH LOWS AT OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL...AND HIGHS
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHANCES FOR PCPN DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACCORDING TO
THE PREFERRED ECMWF MODEL OVER THE GFS...SHOWING QPF MAINLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF WV WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO BE. HAVE LIKELY POPS SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST.

MODELS SPREAD SOLUTIONS FROM DAY 4 TO DAY 7...SHOWING LIGHT PCPN
SUGGESTING UNSETTLED WEATHER COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
GENERALLY...MAINTAINED CHANCE POP MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE AT NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL STAY IN THE 80S LOWLANDS RANGING TO THE
LOWER 70S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS SHOULD STAY IN THE MID 60S THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

COMBINATION OF MVFR STRATUS ACROSS THE NORTH...INCLUDING AT SITES
KPKB...KCKB...AND KEKN...AND IFR FOG AT OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WV. ANY FOG WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AFTER
13-14Z...WITH THE MVFR DECK SCATTERING OUT BY 15Z...FOR A RETURN
TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY
WIND.

ISOLD CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK
HEATING...WITH GREATEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AFTER 21Z ACROSS
SOUTHERN WV...NORTHEAST KY...AND SOUTHWEST VA...WHERE MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AFTER
00Z...PARTICULARLY IN VICINITY OF STORMS. MOST LIKELY SITES TO
SEE CONVECTION WILL BE KBKW...KCRW AND KHTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONVECTION COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD DURING
AFTERNOON HOURS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS
WEEK.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...SL


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