945
FXUS61 KRLX 130633
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
233 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure provides dry and mostly pleasant weather into
today amid a warming trend. Wet weather returns tonight lasting
into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Monday...

Expecting another cool morning with surface high pressure to
our east invading the area. Most locations have already
decoupled or will within the next few hours due to stagnant air
flow from proximity to the high. Patchy fog along the sheltered
river valleys across the coalfields of VA/WV, metro valley and
the mountains. Radiational cooling also allowing for cool spots
to see low temperatures in the lower 40s across the lowlands;
upper 30s in the mountains. Pockets of frost will be possible in
the mountain valleys across Pocahontas and Randolph counties.
An SPS has been hoisted to cover this as frost not expected to
be widespread enough for an advisory.

Skies will remain mostly clear, outside of some passing cirrus
from the west through the morning. High temperatures look to be above
normal today due to southerly flow picking up this afternoon.
Highs will be in the low 80s across the lowlands, 70s to around
80 in the mountains.

Expecting more cloud coverage later this afternoon with
lowering ceilings, especially this evening when an occluding low
moves out of the Mississippi River Valley and over the eastern
Midwest. That said, PoPs increase from SW to NE later this
evening as it slowly makes its way towards us. PoPs become
likely by midnight with scattered showers, and even slight
chances for an isolated thunderstorm across the coalfields and
the eastern mountains. Tuesday looks to start out rather wet
after having a few decent, albeit chilly mornings.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Sunday...

Active weather returns in the short term period as an upper low in
the southern stream moves east towards the Ohio Valley region Monday
night, eventually opening into a wave as it crosses our area on
Wednesday. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected across
the ares as it does so, with isolated water issues a possibility,
owing to saturated air and light flow. If localized water issues do
occur, Wednesday looks to be the better day for this owing to break
in precipitation in days before, and ground will need time to
saturate from repetitive slow moving storms/showers. Severe storms
are not anticipated during the period due to overall weak
dynamics.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1155 AM Sunday...

Drier conditions take hold for Thursday as high pressure surface and
aloft briefly builds in. There could be an isolated shower or even
storm however, from any lingering moisture behind departing system
and diurnal heating. Otherwise, another low will approach the area
for Friday into the weekend, with additional rounds of showers and
storms. This period also looks to be a period that will need to be
watched for localized water issues, with model soundings suggesting
deeply saturated profiles with tall skinny cape, however, it appears
as though this feature will not linger long, with drier weather
taking hold for Sunday, therefore have low confidence this far out
in terms of impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 110 AM Monday...

VFR through the period, outside of some patchy river valley fog
this morning. Fog will mostly be confined to the sheltered river
valleys across the southern coalfields, metro valley and the
mountains. VIS could be IFR at worst, but models are not
confident in density or coverage of fog; even clearing it out by
~12Z due to mixing. Allowed TEMPO groups and VCFG to cover
scattered nature of fog.

High clouds will filter through this morning and could be
SCT at times, before becoming BKN by afternoon. CIGs will
gradually start lowering SW to NE after ~20Z as a system makes
its way towards us. VFR still expected at least until ~06Z
Tuesday though.

S`rly winds light to calm early this morning, before picking up
at a light to gentle clip by daybreak, continuing into the
afternoon. Winds will likely be breezy at times in the mountains
later today.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog could be more dense and last longer
than forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   MON 05/13/24
UTC 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
EDT 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
Scattered IFR visibilities and ceilings are possible in rain
Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL/LTC
NEAR TERM...ARJ/GW
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...LTC