Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 271034
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
615 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES
FRIDAY NIGHT.  COLD HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS EXITED EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. LAST
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING UP ALONG THE FRONT WILL LINGER LIGHT
POST FRONTAL PRECIP MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS THRU EARLY THIS MORNING.
MUCH COLDER AIR...ESPECIALLY ALOFT...WILL CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW
WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BEFORE THE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS HAVE A RELATIVE
DRY SLOT THRU MID DAY BEFORE SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS UNDER
THE COLD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THUS...EXPECT MAINLY LOTS OF LOWER TYPE STRATOCU CLOUDS THRU MID DAY
WITH JUST LINGERING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. EVEN WITH COLDER AIR MOVING
IN...THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL ACTUALLY RECOVER UNDER THINNING CLOUD
COVER INTO THE LOWER 40S IN THE LOW LANDS...BUT COLD ENOUGH TO
MAINTAIN A SNOW/OR SNOW RAIN MIXTURE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND COLD UPPER TROUGH...MODELS REDEVELOP MAINLY UPSLOPE
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE LOW LANDS WILL LIKELY SEE
SCATTERED VERY LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. WILL CONFINE POPS TO
EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...INCREASING AS WE GO INTO THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPS WILL DROP TO WELL BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT AS THE LOWER LEVELS
REALLY COOL OFF WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME SOLAR RADIATION. THUS...THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE A LIGHT ACCUMULATION
OF SNOW...RANGING FROM JUST A COATING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS TO AN INCH
OR TWO AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. GENERALLY NO ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
LOW LANDS. PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND MOISTURE BECOMES MORE SHALLOW. LOOK FOR LOWS WELL DOWN
IN THE 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN SATURDAY AS 5H TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE
EAST. MODELS GENERALLY IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAIN
STORY WILL BE COLD AIR IN PLACE INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHICH COULD BE
THE LAST DYING GASPS OF WINTER 2015. WILL KEEP JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW FOR THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AS 5H TROUGH
AXIS... ASSOCIATED MOISTURE...AND 85H THERMAL TROUGH TRANSITIONS
EAST OUT OF THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED THOUGH.
FOR TEMPS...USED BC GRIDS WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS...ESPECIALLY FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AS WE WILL BE IN A LIGHT FLOW CLEAR SKY REGIME.
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO WARM ADVECTION WITH GRADUAL WARMING
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ROLLER COASTER RIDE IN THE TEMP DEPARTMENT TO CONTINUE THRU THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE THRU SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A WAVE MAY DEVELOP IN THE TN
VALLEY ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN THREAT GOING ACROSS SW
VA AND SE WV. TEMPS WILL COME BACK DOWN BEHIND THE FRONT AS NW
FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AND SNOW SHOWER FOR THE
N MOUNTAINS. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND MIDWEEK WITH
DECENT WAA CRANKING ONCE AGAIN...AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. AS A
RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD SPIKE INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN LONG ABOUT
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z FRIDAY THRU 12Z SATURDAY...
MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE PRECIP FREE WITH A RELATIVE DRY SLOT...ONLY
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
COLD UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REDEVELOP SOME LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR EARLY TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AS
SNOW SHOWERS.

GIVEN ALL THIS...EXPECT IFR IN THE MOUNTAINS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BY
15Z AND VFR CEILINGS BY 18Z...WHILE LOW LAND MVFR/LOW END VFR
CEILINGS WILL BE VFR BY 15Z. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...GUIDANCE KEEPS MOST OF THE LOW LANDS LOW END
VFR...WITH GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS FOR
ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ARE FORECAST.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FLYING CATEGORIES MAY BE LOWER THAN
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...AND TONIGHT
AREA WIDE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JMV










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