Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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025
FXUS61 KRLX 092332
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
632 PM EST Fri Dec 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Much colder weather through Saturday. A low pressure system
crosses Sunday night and Monday. A cold front crosses toward
midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 630 PM Friday...

No major changes to the forecast this evening. Reformulated the
diurnal temperatures tonight with some adjusted lows based on
current trends.

As of 225 PM Friday...

Sfc obs, satellite and radar images show flurries and light snow
showers across the area. It is evident that the available low
level moisture comes from the Great Lakes region.  Forecast on
track. No changes necessary. Under northwest flow, upslope snow
will continue mainly over the northeast mountains.

High pressure builds in Saturday to bring drier but below freezing
temperatures for highs on Saturday.

Used the blend of models for temperatures through the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM Friday...

A warm front will develop over the upper Ohio Valley Sunday in
response to a surface low emerging out of the southern Plains.
Meanwhile, an upper level impulse zipping through the increasing
zonal flow will help to increase the isentropic lift across the
Ohio Valley in proximity to the warm front. Confidence is
increasing on this staying just north of the area, perhaps
clipping portions of southeast Ohio and northern West Virginia
zones with some light snow later Sunday before turning to rain
overnight into Monday. This remains a low confidence forecast
primarily due to the extent of WAA from the south. Much of the
remainder of the area should stay dry until late Sunday as the
cold front approaches. A non diurnal trace was maintained Sunday
night with increasing WAA in the low levels as which point rain
will be the predominate precip type for most of the area. CAD on
the eastern slopes may keep a freezing rain threat in, at least
initially.

The cold front exits Monday with a drying trend to ensue. It will
be warm with a spike into the low 50s possible before the front
crosses.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 325 PM Friday...

There continues to be some disagreement on how the next shot of
cold air comes to fruition later next week. This argues for not
straying away from the Superblend for now. This brings the next
round of arctic air into the area midweek which may or may not be
ushered in by a wave on the front.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 630 PM Friday...

High end MVFR ceilings will linger, especially over the
northeastern terminals at CKB and EKN (though CKB is currently
VFR) with other sites improving during the late overnight hours.
Winds down below 10kts will remain there, and could go calm
overnight with decoupling of the lowest layer of the atmosphere.

Once CKB and EKN come up after 16Z Saturday, VFR will prevail
through the remainder of the period. This will occur several hours
sooner for the other terminals.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and height of MVFR stratocumulus may
vary through tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EST 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    M    M    M    M    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR possible in rain developing Sunday into Sunday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26



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