Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 281020
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
620 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT MONDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
ADDED POPS BACK IN OVER THE TRI STATE AREA GIVEN MODEL
OUTPUT...ALTHOUGH MOS STATISTICS KEEPS HTS DRY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FIRST COLD FRONT IS NOW THROUGH THE AREA AND EXPECT TO BE DRY
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AWAITING SECONDARY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
BRING THE CONVECTION FOR THE DAY ALONG WITH THE CANADIAN AIRMASS
IN ITS WAKE. ASSISTING THE CONVECTION WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL THAT HAS SETTLED INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WITH THAT
SAID...HAVE SCALED BACK THE COVERAGE OF THE POPS TODAY...AND
FIGURE THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE
RAINFALL. WILL NOT GET TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF VERTICAL EXTENT WITH
A CAP IN PLACE AROUND 650HPA.

AS THE COOLER AIR POURS IN...EXPECT ANOTHER JULY DAY WITH LOWLAND
70S AND MOUNTAIN 60S. SNOWSHOE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO 60F
TODAY...BUT THINK IT WILL ULTIMATELY HAPPEN. LOWLAND 50S AND
MOUNTAIN 40S ON TAP FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE U.S. WILL KEEP A SUPPLY OF COOL AIR FROM CANADA. EXCEPT
FOR AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND WEAK FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS NORTH...EXPECT DRY AND COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST PART OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LEADING EDGE OF A STRATUS DECK WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING TO THE OHIO RIVER TERMINALS AND INTO CKB AND CRW. SHOULD
ONLY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS...WITH HEATING MIXING THIS LAYER OF
CLOUD COVER OUT BY 17Z.

COLD POOL CONVECTION AIDED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL FIRE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL ONLY CARRY VCTS WITH SHRA AT CKB AND EKN.
OTHER LOCATIONS HAVE CHANCES THAT ARE TOO LOW FOR PREVAILING AND
TEMPOS FOR NOW.

SURFACE WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS OUT OF
THE WEST. THESE WILL SUBSIDE DOWN BELOW 12KTS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

EXPECTING CLEARING TONIGHT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILING ONSET MAY VARY. CONVECTION MAY
NEED A TEMPO/AMD TODAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    MON 07/28/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...26








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