Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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120
FXUS61 KRLX 290627
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
216 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level troughiness will keep the weather somewhat unsettled
into early next week. Upper level ridging may bring a warmer,
quieter interlude during the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
200 AM UPDATE...
Forecast on track with the rain having moved on to the east, and
areas of low clouds and fog around.

800 PM UPDATE...

All watches have been cancelled this evening. The last in the
series of MCVs is weakening as it traverses thru the mountains.
Rain rates have significantly decreased as convective elements
have shifted into the piedmont of VA. In the wake of the departing
MCV...expect dense fog to quickly develop this evening as partial
clearing occurs. Upstream disturbance currently over the middle OH
Valley is not expected to be a major player in our area tonight as
the atmosphere has been pretty well worked over at this point.
This system will however work thru the area tomorrow morning and
into the early afternoon hours with sct shra/tsra developing by
afternoon.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

Even though the upper system exits by Friday morning...the air
remains moist and conditionally unstable...with no associated
front to push this tropical like air out of the area. Thus...will
linger a shower possibility after the main batch exits tonight.
On Friday...despite lots of cloud hanging on...enough instability
may bring more mainly afternoon showers and storms of a scattered
and disorganized nature.

It will continue warm and muggy tonight. Although clods will again
hold temps down in the lower 80s Friday...it will be humid.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Moisture remains over the region through the weekend and into
Monday...although precipitable water comes down slightly. Models
showing several disturbances moving through...but timing and
placement varies by model. Due to these differences...will keep pops
fairly generic with chances of showers and thunderstorms...highest
in the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Using a combination of WPC and CONSENSus models...indicated building
heights across the region allowing for hot and humid temperatures.
Went with diurnal showers and storms through the term...especially
in the mountains.  Ridge will diminish toward end of term as a front
approaches from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Widespread IFR or worse conditions overnight into Friday morning,
although there is variation as to whether the ceilings or the
visibilities are IFR at east through 09-10Z, after which time
dense fog should be more predominate. After sunrise, the fog will
slowly thin out and lift into stratus and then MVFR stratocu. This
will take most or all of Friday morning before a 4-5 kft cu field
predominates for Friday afternoon.

The next in a series of frequent upper level short wave troughs
will combine with whatever daytime heating that can be mustered
after burning off the morning low clouds to produce showers and
thunderstorms in the area Friday afternoon, coverage too low to
mention in the TAFs.

Fog is likely to begin forming again by 06z Saturday.

Light and variable surface flow will continue beneath light
northwest flow aloft, which will become light west late Friday.

CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing settling in of low stratus and dense
fog may vary a few hours depending on timing exodus of mid deck
overhead.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 07/29/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions in low clouds and / or fog during the overnight
into the morning hours each day, and briefly in showers and
thunderstorms mainly but not exclusively in the afternoons and
evenings.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM



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