Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 161724
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
124 PM EDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Much cooler into Wednesday, in the wake of a cold front that
crossed last night. Dry high pressure with a warming trend for
the latter part of the work week, and the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1120 AM Monday...

Sent an update to upgrade the Freeze watch to a Freeze warning
across the northeast mountains south to Nicholas County. Also,
issued a Frost Advisory for the rest of the area, both headlines
until 10 am Tuesday morning. rest of forecast remains on track.

As of 915 AM Monday...

Forecast on track.

As of 615 AM Monday...

No changes necessary.

As of 355 AM Monday...

Cold front just to the east of the CWA, with just a few lingering
light showers across the higher terrain. Expect much of the area to
start out rather cloudy, before scattering out as the day
progresses. Much lower dew points have already ushered into the
area, with dew points generally in the 40s area wide.

High pressure will continue to build east into the region today and
tonight, with noticeably cooler temperatures. Still expecting a bit
of wind through this afternoon, particularly in the mountainous
counties, but will gradually decouple tonight as high pressure
progged to be overhead. With the very dry air mass expected to be in
place, and high overhead, expecting a night of good radiational
cooling, with a widespread frost expected across the lowlands, and
freezing temperatures across the mountains late tonight. Went ahead
and issued a freeze watch for tonight/Tuesday morning across the
higher terrain, and will allow the day shift to evaluate any
issuance of frost advisory today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 AM Monday...

High pressure rules the roost this period, with cool, bone dry
weather.

Heights rise early on, as the upper level short wave trough that
drove the cool air into the area, lifts out. For Wednesday, the
northern stream jet is well north of the forecast area, the
area itself being in a rex block between a northern stream
ridge, and southern stream trough.

A northern stream trough pushes a cold front across the Great
Lakes Wednesday night. The trough and cold front never get as
far south as the forecast area. Rather, high pressure behind the
cold front bridges across Thursday, resulting in high pressure
centered right over the area Thursday night. The end result is
to perhaps slow the warming trend.

Lowered daytime dew points from central guidance in the very
dry air, via a consensus MOS and global model blend, and
lowered low temperatures from central guidance via COOP MOS.
This yields values similar to previous forecast, with frost likely
again Wednesday morning. RH values dip into the 20s Wednesday
afternoon, and well down into the 30s Tuesday and Thursday
afternoons. However, light winds will limit the fire threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 355 AM Monday...

High pressure continues to rule the roost Friday, before
drifting east over the the weekend. This will continue the dry
weather, with a warming trend over the weekend, in southerly
flow around the back side of the exiting high. The next cold
front is progged to arrive Monday, with the chance for showers,
as the driving upper level short wave trough pushes the
southern edge of the northern stream jet southward into the
forecast area.

Central guidance temperatures accepted, but daytime dew points
lowered via a consensus MOS and global model blend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 120 PM Monday...

With the cold front east of the mountains, the area remains
under northerly flow bringing dry dewpoints, except for some
moisture from Lake Erie producing light rain showers to affect
CKB and EKN early afternoon. Expect VFR/MVFR ceilings with this
activity. The rest of the area will experience diurnal cu about
5000 feet to prevail through the afternoon hours.

Generally light northwesterly winds, with occasional gusts in
the teens, particularly across the higher terrain.

After 00Z, the lower atmosphere should decouple causing light to
calm winds, with patchy river valley fog possible generally
after 08Z. Temperatures will drop from the mid 30s lowlands to
the upper 20s higher elevations. This could produce frost
instead of fog.

Broad high pressure will prevail through the rest of the week to
produce widespread VFR conditions.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Eastern Mountains may not improve to VFR
as quickly as forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
Patchy valley dense fog during the predawn hours this week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for
     WVZ031-032-039-040-519>526.
     Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>030-033-034-515>518.
OH...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for
     OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for
     VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...ARJ



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