Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 140832
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
332 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Snow showers mainly across the northern portion of the area
tonight into Thursday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

As of 330 AM Thursday...

Clipper system passing to our north this morning is dragging a
cold front through the region. Temperatures have been quite warm
overnight, but the cold air behind the front is going to waste
no time rushing in. In fact, high temperatures have already been
reached for the day and temperatures will continue to drop from
here on out, but may level off for a period this afternoon if we
can sneak in a little sunshine. With the tight thermal packing,
we are seeing winds across the Lowlands gusting generally
between 30 to 40 mph, but gusts in the mountains will likely
exceed 50 mph early this morning when the tightest thermal
packing nudges through around 12Z. Had to hoist up a wind
advisory through noon today for our mountain zones.

Cut back snowfall totals in the mountains, as moisture is
limited and the best forcing is well to our north. However,
upslope should still be able to squeeze out an inch or two
across the western facing slopes of the mountains.

There will be some lingering stratus behind the front, so mostly
cloudy conditions will persist through the day with maybe some
decreasing clouds late in the afternoon to early evening. Much
colder night ahead as the arctic high drifts southeastward and
settles overhead.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Wednesday...

Weak high pressure builds into the area Thursday night ahead of
yet another clipper system. This time, the parent low stays up
across the Great Lakes with only a dragging weak cold front
behind. Behind well south of favorable lake-enhanced low-level
moisture transport, only a slight chance of snow is advertised
across the northern counties with a low chance across the
mountains given a small component of upslope enhancement.
Modest warm air advection ahead of the front bump afternoon
temperatures across the lowlands above freezing after a cold
night in the teens and 20`s. Behind the front, winds turn
westerly as opposed to northwesterly, making cold air advection
into the area negligible - setting up a slightly warmer Friday
night/Saturday morning with lows in the mid-20`s in the lowlands
and mid-teens to around 20 F in the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Wednesday...

Weak high pressure builds again behind the short term period`s
clipper system Saturday. Winds near the surface turn
southwesterly beginning Saturday morning, warm advecting through
the weekend with temperatures reaching into the 30`s/40`s on
Saturday and into the 40`s/upper 40`s my Sunday. Models agree on
a warm front lifting up through the area Sunday accompanied by
scattered rain showers and perhaps a snow/mix upon onset during
the morning.

The associated cold front moves through by Monday night. Model
discrepancies are aplenty beyond this point - from the surface
through the upper-levels. The progression of a Rockies trough
across the CONUS will dictate sensible conditions through the
rest of the period. So, went for a general blend beyond this
point with a notable period of possible upslope precipitation
during Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1235 AM Thursday...

A strong cold front will be passing across the region through
the early morning hours today. This front will mostly bring some
snow showers across Northern West Virginia and the Northeast
Mountains. Snow showers at CKB and EKN are most likely and
expecting to see some restrictions in those spots, but
confidence is still low on how intense the snow will become.
Behind the front we can expect MVFR stratus just about
everywhere through the day today, with improving conditions late
Thursday afternoon.

Tight pressure gradient with the front will also cause very
gusty winds through dawn today. Gusts higher than 40 knots will
be likely in the mountains and in the lower elevations winds of
30 knots or slightly higher may be possible.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of ceilings and snow showers
tonight may vary. Winds may gusts stronger than currently
forecast at some sites.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         THU 12/14/17
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    L    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    M    M    H    M    H    H    L    L    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    H    M    M    M    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    H    M    H    H    M    M    M    L    L

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
Another round of snow is expected across the northern portion of
the area on Friday and Friday night, with IFR conditions
possible in heavier snow showers.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Wind Advisory until noon EST today for WVZ516-518-520-522>524-
     526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...MPK


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