Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 250548
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
145 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK WINDS INTO FRIDAY. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
SATURDAY. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN A WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH ROUNDS OF CONVECTION MAINLY SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...LOWERED SKY COVER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH PLEASANT WEATHER
FRIDAY.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...EVIDENT IN H5 CHARTS WILL CROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER H5 SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS MID DAY SATURDAY
CONTINUING THE THREAT FOR PCPN INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. MINOR TWEAKS
MADE TO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT FOR
THE LAST FEW DAYS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE ON
SUNDAY MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH AND ALONG THE WV SIDE OF THE OH
RIVER.

FLOW WILL BECOME MODERATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT. LEANED CLOSER TO THE MOS CONSENSUS FOR
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE LAST SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS. GRADUALLY REDUCED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY MONDAY MORNING...KEEPING THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE
PCPN.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FUSED A BLEND OF
DIFFERENT GUIDANCE...KEPT WARMER TEMPS FOR A MUGGY SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOW TURN NORTHWEST BY MONDAY BRINGING COOLER PLEASANT TEMPERATURES
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK WINDS INTO FRIDAY.

HAVE WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW STRATUS FORMING OVERNIGHT FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. FOG FORMING LATER
AND MORE ALONG RIVERS IN THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS ALONG ROUTE
50 CORRIDOR...SAY UNI...PKB TO CKB.

IN THE WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...FIGURING LOW STRATUS IN THE SUTTON TO
CRW TO HTS AND WILLIAMSON CORRIDOR LINGERING FOR 12Z TO 14Z...AND
BREAKING UP AROUND 14Z TO 15Z.

WITH PATCHES OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS...THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND
BECKLEY COULD EASILY HAVE VARIABLE LOW CEILINGS AND VSBY
OVERNIGHT.

AFTER 17Z..MOSTLY SCATTERED CLOUDS AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT AGL.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE LINGERING LOW
STRATUS IN THE WESTERN SLOPES AFTER 12Z AND WHEN IT EVAPORATES
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 07/25/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...KTB










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