Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 270244
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1036 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TONIGHT...ALLOWING COLD FRONT TO REACH THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY WED EVENING.  THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO ONE MORE
PEACEFUL NT TONIGHT.  CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE DENSE FOG IN THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT THE VALLEYS OF WV AND SW VA SHOULD
SEE A NEAR REPEAT OF LAST NT.

MAY SEE THE REMNANTS OF ONGOING CONVECTION REACHING THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT / TOWARD DAWN WED AND TRAVERSING SEWD
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY.  FIGURING ON DECREASING COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH PUSHES EWD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW TIME ENOUGH FOR
ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION TO TRY TO GET GOING LATER WED
AFTERNOON...ALONG AND RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING IN THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.

MAV LOOKED TOO LOW ON LOWS TONIGHT WHILE MET / BIAS CORRECTED MET
APPEARED TO BE A BETTER FIT.  MAV SEEMED HIGH ON HIGHS WED ALTHOUGH
IT MAY PAN OUT IN THE WARM AXIS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IF THERE IS NOT
MUCH CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MANY WHOLESALE CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM.
STILL EXPECTING A ENE-WSW ORIENTED FRONT TO BE INTO THE NORTHERN
THIRD OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THE OUTSET...WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD WHILE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE TOWARDS THE DAWN
HOURS THURSDAY. AGAIN...AS PREV DISC NOTED...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
OTHER FORCING SAVE FOR CONVECTIVE FORCING SO WILL CONTINUE TO CAP
POPS IN THE MID-RANGE AREA DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING TIME FRAME.
BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THURSDAY.
KEPT MOST OF THE AREA DRY BUT LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN WV AND VA ZONES WHERE A BIT MORE LLVL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE.  WARM FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO
LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND AS SUCH WILL
HAVE POPS ALSO LIFTING NORTHEAST JUST AHEAD OF AND THEN BEHIND THE
FRONT. ONLY REAL CHANGE TO FRIDAY/S FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE MAX
TEMPS WITH THE PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS ON LATEST
NAM/EC/GFS RUNS ALL DEPICT TEMPS OF 25C-27C...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND PERHAPS A FEW 90F READINGS SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LEANED TOWARD WPC WITH SOME TWEAKS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW BACKING TO
SOUTHWEST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A CONTINUED GOOD MOISTURE FEED INTO THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP
FOR MUCH OF THE TIME. CONTINUED MID/HIGH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY AS ONE FRONT APPROACHES AND BRUSHES BY THE AREA TO THE NORTH
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. TUESDAY APPEARS DRIER AT THIS POINT IN TIME
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
03Z WEDNESDAY THRU 00Z THURSDAY...
THRU 12Z...CLOUDS APPROACHING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP
PKB AND HTS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER FROM GETTING DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...LEAVING EKN AND CRW MOST LIKELY TO SEE LIFR IN DENSE FOG.
TIMING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST NT...7Z EKN 9Z CRW...AND JUST A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF MIST AS DAWN APPROACHES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. CKB
AND BKW WILL REMAIN VFR.

AFTER 12Z...ANY RIVER VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES RAPIDLY. THE FIRST ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ENTER NORTHWEST ZONES
AROUND 12Z AND SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONT. WILL KEEP
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH HALF
THRU THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THUS...VFR CEILINGS PREVAIL NORTH HALF AND
SCT CLOUDS SOUTH HALF.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM FOR FOG...OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY TONIGHT
DEPENDING ON INCOMING CLOUDS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  WED 08/27/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/50
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JMV










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