Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 180613
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
213 AM EDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front Friday. High pressure builds for dry weather through
Tuesday. Another cold front by mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 840 PM Thursday...

Updated the forecast to better handle the showers/thunderstorms
moving across northern WV this evening.


As of 540 PM Thursday...

Line of thunderstorms is moving into western portions of the area
faster than models indicated. Have updated the forcast for early
this evening to reflect this faster timing.

As of 225 PM Thursday...

QLCS across Eastern Ohio associated with a prefrontal trough will
push into the Ohio Valley later this evening. Well out ahead of
this line we are currently seeing isolated to scattered showers
and storms across our area. Despite moist and unstable low
level profiles, drier air in the mid level has kept these cells
in check, and the severe threat with these cells is extremely
low, however they do contain brief downpours. Any severe storm
threat will be associated with the main convective line later
this evening, but this threat is still quite low, with our
Northern Ohio Counties most at risk. Here, 0-6km bulk shear will
be strongest at about 30 to 35 knots and although instability
will drops off by the time it arrives later this evening, there
may still be enough there to produce borderline severe storms.
Also, with the high PWATs, torrential rainfall will be possible
into the overnight hours.

The actual cold front will not pass the area until later
tomorrow afternoon and some weak showers and storms are
possible. Behind the front drier air moves in with high
pressure.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...

A cold front will continue its track east of the mountains Friday
night. Some chances for showers or isolated storms could remain
shortly behind the front so kept Chance Pop across WV except likely
over elevations higher than 3000 feet. The cold front will be located
far southwest of the area allowing for dry conditions Saturday
through and Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...

High pressure continues Monday through Wednesday night producing
widespread clear and dry weather. However, moisture will increase
Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of the next approaching cold front. The
cold front brings better chances for showers and
thunderstorms as it crosses Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z Friday thru 06Z Saturday...
As of 145 AM Friday...

An upper disturbance and cold front will move east across the
area today, bringing showers and TSTMS. Most of the convection
will be in an organized band ahead of the front itself with the
upper disturbance, lasting about a 3 to 4 hour period in any
location. The front will lag behind this band, so continue
scattered convection until the front actually passes. The front
will likely reach the Ohio River around 16Z, a CKB-CRW line
around 20Z, and exiting the mountains around 00Z.

Fog early this morning will be limited mostly to the protected
valleys of the mountains, affecting EKN til around 10Z when the
clouds move in.

Outside of convection, look for VFR ceilings, lowering to MVFR
ceilings/vsby in convection, but locally IFR in the heaviest
convection in the main band. Behind the front, becoming SCT-BKN
4000-6000 feet AGL thru the afternoon. With loss of heating and
high pressure building in, look for rapid clearing from west to
east early this evening. With mostly clear skies setting in
tonight, fog appears likely after 06Z Saturday at the major TAF
sites.

Generally south to southwest winds 5 to 10 KTS ahead of the
front today, becoming westerly at the same speeds behind the
front, then light and variable tonight.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and coverage of showers and
thunderstorms could vary. Some fog can not be ruled out in the
mountain valleys early this morning.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 08/18/17
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    M    H    M    H    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    M    M    M    L    H    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    M    L

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
Dense river valley fog possible each morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/MPK
NEAR TERM...RPY/MPK
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV



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