Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 271422
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1020 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN VICINITY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMING TREND FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.  MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THINKING YESTERDAY WAS THE MAX ON DAYTIME CLOUDS AND THIS MORNING
WAS MAX ON DAWN FOG COVERAGE. LAST OF FOG DISSIPATING OVER SOUTHERN
COAL FIELDS AT 14Z. A PATCH OF TRATOCU WITH OVC CEILINGS CENTERED
OVER WIRT AND RITCHIE COUNTIES AT 14Z.

YET...ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT WILL STILL PRODUCE RIVER VALLEY FOG
FOR 08Z TO 12Z FRIDAY.  PLACES THAT HAD STRATOCU OVERNIGHT LAST
NIGHT...SUCH AS PKB...MAY ACTUALLY HAVE MORE VALLEY FOG AT DAWN
FRIDAY WITH LESS CLOUDS TONIGHT.

HAVE DAYTIME CU AND STRATOCU THIS AFTERNOON.  ONE MAX MAY BE IN THE
LINGERING COOLER 850 TEMPERS IN THE NORTH TOWARD PA...ANOTHER MAX
MAY BE ON SOME WEAK UPSLOPE OVER POCAHONTAS CO.

DILEMMA TONIGHT...DO PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS LINGER OVER THE EASTERN
SLOPES IN THE WEAK FLOW.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...HAVE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ON FRIDAY WITH WAA ON DEVELOPING SW FLOW.
THERE COULD BE AN AFTERNOON SHRA OVER POCAHONTAS IN AN OTHERWISE
DRY REGIME. WHILE THE HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL MODERATE TO MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS...THE LOW TEMPS WILL STILL BE COOLISH.

MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE AMPLITUDE OF S/W TROF
TRAVERSING THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY AS
THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO MORE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS LOOKS TO PUT ON THE BRAKES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
WEAKEN. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF WOULD AT LEAST MEAN
AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A SHRA OR TSRA...MAXIMIZED DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. SUNDAY MAY PRESENT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY TEMPER HIGHS A BIT.
STILL...LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS THIS WEEKEND AMID A GRADUAL INCREASE IN OVERALL HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL
DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY
FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE
TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE A
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING CLOUDS
FOR SOME AREAS IN NORTHERN WV AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. AREAS OF DENSE
RIVER VALLEY FOG HAVE FORMED IN AREAS THAT CLEARED. THIS FOG WILL
BURN OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD MIX INTO A
CUMULUS DECK THIS AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING AT SUNSET. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOCATION OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD VARY
AS THIS IS DEPENDENT ON LOSING THE STRATUS DECK FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FROM SATURDAY ONWARD.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY


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