Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 302319
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
719 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure today. Cold front slides through Wednesday
night. Drier and cooler weather to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 720 PM Tuesday...
Mountain convection on the wane with the setting of the sun. Only
minor grid edits to the forecast.

Previous Discussion...
Some showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon across
an axis of a theta e ridge in the West Virginia Mountains. These
showers and storms are diurnally driven and will die down after
sunset. Skies will clear out tonight with weak high pressure
remaining overhead. I went with persistence and expecting to see
some locally dense valley fog develop through the early morning
hours.

As for Wednesday...overall it should remain mostly dry with a
cold front approaching the region from the northwest in the
afternoon. Moisture will remain over the Eastern mountains and we
could see a few showers pop out their well in advance of the
front. Other than that...guidance remains in fairly good
agreement with the precip shield ahead of the entering the Ohio
Valley just before 00Z. For now have gone with slight chance to
chance PoP starting late tomorrow afternoon through the evening in
the Northern Ohio Valley...but it is possible that the timing
could shift a bit.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 PM Tuesday...

Cold front crosses the area Wednesday night into Thursday so have
a good chance for PoPs then...though QPF will be on the light side
as its the first front through an extended period of high
pressure. Cooler and drier air arrives in the wake of the cold
front. High pressure builds again.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 250 PM Tuesday...

Used WPC forecast for this part of the package. High pressure will
build across the area Friday night...and then remain in control
through the remainder of the period. This should result in dry
weather...with a warming trend.

WPC temperatures looked reasonable and were followed.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 720 PM Tuesday...

The temptation is to go completely persistent with the overnight
fog forecast given the same synoptic conditions prevailing across
all terminals. However...one parameter different from previous
evenings is the lower dewpoints in place by 10 to 15 degrees.
Guidance does suggest dewpoint recovery overnight...and will hold
off any earlier type fog formation while this occurs. In the
end...the forecast is not all that much different and keep the IFR
or worse visibilities on the I-79 corridor and east...that
is...CRW/CKB/EKN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium tonight...High Wednesday.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog setting in late tonight and
then lifting tomorrow morning could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...

Could see showers and storms develop late wednesday afternoon and
into Wednesday evening with a cold front approaching the region.
Brief MVFR to IFR conditions are possible inside any showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JW/MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK/26
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...JSH/JW
AVIATION...26



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