Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 230726
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
326 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure gives way to a low pressure system moving south and
east today and tonight. Upper level low brings chances of
showers Wednesday into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Tuesday...

High pressure will provide dry and cool conditions early today.
Abundant clouds and dry air in place can account for comfortable
temperatures. A series of mid level shortwaves will bring
additional moisture from the south southeast to bring an chance
for showers or storms mainly across the eastern half of WV
through tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Tuesday...

Models have remained fairly consistent with deep upper
trough/low impacting our region Wednesday into Thursday. GEFS
indicating an anomalous jet max for this time of year at 4 to 5
standard deviations above normal. We will be in a good spot in
the left front quad of this jet max as it pushes north around
the trough. Current blend of forecast guidance is spitting out
about a 1 inch bullseye of QPF over Central through Eastern West
Virginia, with Euro a bit further west than the GFS at this
time. PWATs aren`t overly impressive and low CAPE values as well
based on forecast soundings, so thunderstorm and flood threat
will be minimal . However, with upper trough swinging in and
cold temps aloft, I do believe there will be some embedded
thunderstorms within a wide band of showers Wednesday afternoon
through early Thursday morning.

The upper level low will remain over the area on Thursday and
more showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible. Temps
will be quite a bit cooler as well, with highs only mid 60s in
the Lowlands and 50s in the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...

Upper trough kicks to our east and a zonal pattern is left in
its wake. Guidance in fairly decent agreement with a brief dry
period on Friday as weak ridge pushes in. However, the weekend
is looking quite unsettled at this time. Strong warm air and
moisture advection with H850 showing southwesterly return flow
from the Gulf of Mexico. Should definitely have the instability
in place this weekend, but timing of short waves moving through
the flow will determine severe weather potential. Confidence
remains quite low at this time due to some differences within
the guidance, so have stuck with a blend of ensemble and
operational guidance for this period and have mentioned the
chance for thunder in the forecast simply because of instability
that is likely to be in place.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 725 PM Monday...

Radar and satellite images show no rainfall activity over the
region. VFR conditions have been reported at all sites. However,
visibilities at CRW has dropped from 10 to 8 miles, and down to
6 miles at EKN. These features could indicate that fog is
forming along these river basins and perhaps become MVFR/IFR
later overnight. Plenty of clouds will prevent fog from forming
at many places. Only the protected valleys could experience fog
this morning.


High resolution and synoptic models suggest a series of
shortwaves will lift north across eastern KY and southern WV to
produce showers mainly western slopes and eastern mountains
during the afternoon hours. These showers could produce brief
periods of IFR under heavy rain. Otherwise, expect MVFR
conditions.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low particularly concerning fog potential
tonight.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent and density of fog may vary
overnight. Timing on lower cigs and SHRA may also vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 05/23/17
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
Increasing chance of MVFR to IFR in SHRA through mid week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...ARJ



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