Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KRLX 010002
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
802 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure in control through tonight. Frontal boundary with
isolated thundershowers arrives Friday. Mostly dry weekend.
Frontal boundary with active weather next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
325 pm update...Just made a quick update to add some slight chance
PoP across the mountains for this afternoon into early this
evening.  Other than that the forecast remains on track.

Previous Discussion...
A high pressure keeps weather conditions dry under calm or light and
variable winds. Expect afternoon cu to dissipate around sunset.
Mostly clear sky should prevail through Friday. Some river valleys
may see dense fog during the predawn hours Friday.

A cold front approaches from the west later on Friday. No much
moisture associated with it allows for PoP being in the chance
category.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Using a national blend from the WPC, increased POPs in the
southern mountains. High pressure builds in from the northwest and
pushes all remaining precipitation out of the area for Saturday.
High pressure remains through early Sunday before a convective
complex located over the Central Plains early Sunday will
propagate eastward through the day on Sunday. Some uncertainty
remains on the strength and timing of this complex as it makes it
way into the area for Monday. Chances of storms remain in the
forecast throughout the day for Independence Day. Temperatures
remain in the lower 80s for the period while dewpoints begin to
climb up into the low to mid 60s for Monday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Again, using the national blend from the WPC since the GFS and
ECMWF are in disagreement for this period. Left POPs in the area
for Monday night, Tuesday and briefly Wednesday as high pressure
builds in for Wednesday afternoon. Precipitation will remain
through the period as ample moisture at 850 and an upper-level
trough at 500 will allow for vertical accent and chances of
precipitation. The low begins to scoot off to the east for late
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure with widespread VFR conditions are expected until
the early morning hours on Friday. Calm winds and decent
radiational cooling tonight should promote fog development once
again tonight in valley locations. However...the fog does not look
like it will be quite as dense and widespread as it was overnight
last night.

LIFR visibilities or ceilings are possible with greatest
confidence of occurrence at EKN and PKB. Any overnight fog will
slowly dissipate by 13Z Friday.

Cold front approaches from the west, will start to affect the
area from the Ohio river and points west on later on Friday...but
it should just be getting to PKB around 22Z or 23Z so I left it
out of this round of TAFs as I`m not confident enough that showers
will get there before 00Z Saturday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of valley fog may vary
Friday morning. High clouds could reduce radiational cooling a bit
and damper fog development.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 07/01/16
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR possible in thunderstorms this weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ
NEAR TERM...ARJ/MPK
SHORT TERM...KMC/99
LONG TERM...KMC/99
AVIATION...MPK



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.