Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 231852
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
252 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND REMAIN ON FRIDAY. DRY COLD
FRONT SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WARMING MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOW CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. WITH CLOUDS CLEARING AND WINDS BECOMING CALM IN WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THERE IS A QUESTION OF WHETHER FOG
WILL FORM. SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT WILL ATTEMPT TO HAMPER
FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT BELIEVE SOME FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE
NORMAL SPOTS OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE CALM WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY WITH ONLY A FEW HIGHER
CLOUDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HAVE SOME FEATURES TO TALK ABOUT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND...WITHOUT MUCH FANFARE IN TERMS OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER THEY
WILL CREATE.

A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL DRAG WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY NIGHT...TRAILED BY A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE. THIS WILL TRANSLATE
TO LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST ALONG
WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. FOLLOWING THESE FEATURES FOR
SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING IS THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
WASH OUT IN TERMS OF THE PRESSURE FIELDS...AND AGAIN...WILL PRODUCE
SOME CLOUDS AND A REMOVAL OF THE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND
FIELD.

FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...NOT EXPECTING MEASURABLE...AND
MAY NEED TO REVISIT THIS FOR SOME SPRINKLES WITH EITHER FEATURE. DID
ADD SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE SATURDAY
EVENING COLD FRONT. MIGHT GET SOME DAMP GROUND IN A FEW LOCATIONS IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BUT AGAIN...NOT EXPECTING MUCH.

TEMPERATURES PUSH WARMER IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT...AND WILL
ONLY FALL A COUPLE DEGREES FOR SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

IN THE END...A DECENT WEEKEND SHAPING UP. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE
OPEN TO SEE IF MODELS MAKE A PUSH FOR BETTER MOISTURE IN WHICH SOME
LOW END POPS NEED TO BE ADDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. COUNTING ON
GOOD NOCTURNAL COOLING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...WENT COLDER WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE MARGINAL FOR FROST IN THE LOWLANDS. WILL HOLD OFF
INCLUDING IN HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS DISTANCE IN
TIME...5TH NIGHT.

500 MB RIDGE AXIS PASSES ABOUT MONDAY NIGHT.  WILL GO WARMING FOR
TUESDAY AND INCREASE WINDS.

CONFIDENCE LOWERS FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...TIMING NEXT 500 MB TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.
DELAYED MENTION OF POPS FOR MOST COUNTIES.  ECMWF EVEN SLOWER IN ITS
12Z RUN WITH STRONGER 500 MB TROF IN THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS SHOW CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GRADUALLY RAISE AND
CONTINUE TO ERODE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WITH CLOUDS CLEARING AND WINDS BECOMING
CALM IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THERE IS A QUESTION
OF WHETHER FOG WILL FORM. SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT WILL
ATTEMPT TO HAMPER FOG DEVELOPMENT...BUT BELIEVE SOME FOG IS STILL
POSSIBLE IN THE NORMAL SPOTS OF THE WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE CALM
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR FRIDAY
PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CLOUDS DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING COULD VARY. FOG TIMING...DENSITY...AND LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/26
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...RPY








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