Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 210753
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
353 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 06Z THE COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AND
WILL RACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE ARE
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. BY 16Z ACCORDING
TO THE HRRR EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. MODELS ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND EVEN INDICATE THERE
COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BEST LOCATION FOR THUNDER WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HAVE GONE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WITH STUBBORN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY MOVING OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY...COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
AT THE SFC THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE BACKING FROM THE
NORTHWEST ALOFT BY THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN PIVOT NE
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY.

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF
CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. UNDER NORTHERLY WIND
COMPONENT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE COLD SIDE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

MODELS SUGGEST THE COLDEST H850 TEMPERATURES...A POCKET OF
FREEZING AIR MASS...WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH...AWAY
FROM LINGERING PCPN OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS KEEPING PCPN TYPE
LIQUID WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.


PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. DECREASE A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY PER DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL...DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PERIOD
STARTS OUT WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST/CENTERED ALONG THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH A FEW CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO VICINITY OF THE LOW. SEASONABLE...BUT
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA WITH A W/NW FLOW.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE LATER SATURDAY.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH EACH OF THESE FEATURES...AND EXPECTING
MOSTLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. FOR NOW...MAINTAINED A
DRY FORECAST.

RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AROUND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND WILL HAVE ISOLATED
SHOWERS. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z. CIGS WILL IMPROVE
FOR A FEW HOURS BUT EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS BY 16Z AND MVFR
CIGS ONCE AGAIN. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED -TSRA AREA WIDE FROM
19-22Z BUT WILL ONLY INCLUDE AT KPKB AND KEKN. MVFR CIGS WILL STAY
AROUND THROUGH TONIGHT. KPKB...KEKN...KCKB COULD BE IFR AFTER O6Z
ON THE 22ND.

W/NW WINDS LESS THAN 10KT EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ALONG THE RIDGES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND HOW LONG MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
LAST THIS MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    TUE 10/21/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    H    H    H    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    L    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    L    L    L    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    L    L    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...FB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...FB







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