Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 191019
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
519 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE STATES
SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RAGGED DECK OF STRATCU AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN WV...AND
PARTS OF SOUTHERN OH.  BUT THE CLOUD DECK IS THICKER OVER THE FAR
NORTH WHERE A WEAK S/W AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA AND THE EASTERN WV PANHANDLE.

SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND SOME DRYING OF
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL ALLOW MORE WIDESPREAD BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...AND ANY LINGERING FLURRIES IN KEKN AREA TO COME TO AN END.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TREND CONT WITH SUPPRESSION OF SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY. HAVE TIGHTENED
UP THE POP GRADIENT SIGNIFICANTLY...CONFINING POPS TO SW VA AND SE
WV...WHERE HIGH POPS WERE MAINTAINED ACROSS SW VA SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS STREAKING BAND OF WHAT SHOULD BE MAINLY -SN...WILL
QUICKLY SCOOT OFF TO THE E BY MIDDAY WITH JUST SOME FLURRIES OR
SPRINKLES ACROSS THOSE LOCATIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON. TOUGH TO
FIGURE OUT THE CLOUD COVER WITH VARYING HEIGHTS TO BASES
ANTICIPATED FOR THE REGION. SUSPECT QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS LINGERING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS S ZONES WITH BEST CHANCE OF AT LEAST BECOMING
BKN N OF I64 CORRIDOR. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FLOW BENEATH
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION MAY PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MIXING THE
STRATUS OUT THOUGH. INHERITED TEMPS CLOSE TO NEW GUIDANCE WITH
LITTLE TWEAKING.

S/W RIDGING WORKS IN ON SUNDAY AS WAA SLOWLY BEGINS TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO VEER AROUND TO SE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD HELP IN ERADICATING ANY LINGERING STRATUS
ALTHOUGH FLOW IS RATHER WEAK. WILL ALSO HAVE SOME WAA FROM THE S
TO HELP. UNFORTUNATELY...QUITE A BIT OF CIRRUS WILL BE STREAKING
IN FROM THE W IN THE AFTERNOON...TO FILTER WHAT SUNSHINE WE MANAGE
TO GET. INHERITED TEMPS CLOSE TO NEW GUIDANCE WITH LITTLE
TWEAKING.

CIRRUS SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH STRATUS DEVELOPING ON E SLOPES
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK. WILL BE WATCHING FOR UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE TO ROTATE OUT OF THE BASE OF AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF
OVER THE PLAINS. SUSPECT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ALONG SE
COAST AS THIS UPPER WAVE TRACKS THRU TN VALLEY INTO OUR NECK OF
THE WOODS. FEEL BULK OF HVY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL
REMAIN E OF THE CWA...CLIPPING MOUNTAIN ZONES MONDAY MORNING. THIS
IS WHERE HIGH POPS WERE CODED UP WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER MAXIMA OVER
SE OH. THINK STRENGTHENING DOWNSLOPING SE FLOW WILL KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES LOW ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. THERE WILL BE A CAD EVENT TO CONTEND
WITH AS THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER NEW
ENGLAND...ALBEIT WEAK. THIS CAD MAY BE STRENGTHENED INITIALLY AS
DRY LYR AROUND H85 MOISTENS UP MONDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT FELT
THE COOLER NAM WAS THE WAY TO GO ACROSS OUR CAD LOCATIONS...IE E
SLOPES AND GREENBRIER VALLEY. WETBULBING PROBABLY WOULD SUPPORT A
BRIEF BURST OF SN ON THE LEADING EDGE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO FZRA AS WAA ALOFT OVERWHELMS THE AREA.
THERE COULD BE AN INCH OF SN BEFORE THIS TRANSITION WITH SOME
ICING TO WORRY ABOUT THEREAFTER...UNTIL MIDDAY. WILL INSERT A
MENTION IN HWO FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES SHOULD CONFIDENCE INCREASE.
MOST OF THE PRECIP BECOMES CONFINED TO DEPARTING SURFACE LOW OFF
THE E COAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH JUST A FEW -SHRA
EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS SE OH. TRIED TO CODE UP SOME WARMER TEMPS
E OF I79 CORRIDOR TO W SLOPES AIDED BY SOME DOWNSLOPING...WHERE
SOME MID 50S POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE GENERALLY UPPER 40S
TO LOWER 50S ELSEWHERE. CAD LOCATIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 30S HOWEVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW
VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY AN MVFR CLOUD DECK IN PLACE THIS MORNING WITH CIGS
TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SFC GRADIENTS
IN PLACE WITH ONLY A LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST PUFF. EXPECT SOME
RETURN TO MVFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS BL DECOUPLES AND MIXING
HEIGHTS DROP. DO NOT EXPECT CLOUD COVERAGE TO BE NEARLY AS
WIDESPREAD AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS...AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
HAVE SCOURED OUT SOME. LATE IN THE PERIOD...BRINGING IN MID LEVEL
DECK AS SOUTHERN STREAM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING TRANSITION TO VFR TODAY AND
REFORMATION OF MVFR CIGS TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BEING IFR TO MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY WITH A WINTRY MIX.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/30
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KMC








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