Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 050210
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1010 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE INCREASES SLIGHTLY. COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO OHIO AND
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN LIFTS NORTH LATE
WEDNESDAY.  TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1010 PM UPDATE...

NO CHANGES NEEDED ATTM.

700 PM UPDATE...

BKN LINE OF -SHRA MAKING ITS WAY THRU PARTS OF E OH ZONES...WITH
THE LINE MAINLY VIRGA IN SE OH. THIS WILL CONT TO BE THE CASE
OVERNIGHT...WITH WARM FRONT SHIFTING N OF CWA AND TAKING MOST OF
ANY -SHRA ACTIVITY WITH IT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
AT 18Z MONDAY...COLD FRONT IN LWR MI NEAR ARB AND IN NRN IL NEAR
ORD. BASING FORECAST ON FRONT SAGS SOUTH TO NEAR I-70 CORRIDOR AND
OUR PERRY COUNTY BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...OR THE END OF THIS NEAR TERM.
A BIT MORE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS DURG TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WILL
CONTINUE WITH ABOUT 40 POP ACROSS THE NORTH.

MEANWHILE...TONIGHT...WEAK MID LEVEL 500 MB DISTURBANCES MOVING EAST
INTO THE RIDGE...BUT HEIGHTS STILL TRYING TO RISE.  SO FAIRLY WEAK
SUPPORT...AND LIMITED MOISTURE...THOUGH HAVE SURFACE DEWS INCREASING
INTO THE 50S.

WILL GENERALLY STAY AOB NAM AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE POPS...BUT STILL
AROUND A 40 POP MOVING W TO E ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND OUR NORTHERN
WV COUNTIES TONIGHT FOR SHOWERS.  COOLEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE IN THE
SOUTH WITH LESS CLOUDS AND WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...HAVE A COLD FRONT STALLED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...WHICH WILL LIFT BACK NORTH WEDNESDAY. HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. ALSO HAVE SOME POPS
WITH THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE OF THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS. OTHERWISE AN
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL...CENTERED TO THE SW OF THE CWA...SO
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND 70S FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO LONG TERM PERIOD BY BLENDING IN WPC
GUIDANCE. UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
CONVECTION FIRING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE...OVER THE WV
MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT APPROACHING LATE IN THE
PERIOD...WHICH MAY MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR PREDOMINATE THRU TAF PERIOD. WITH THE INCREASE IN LLVL
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE N...HAVE SOME MVFR VSBY AT KEKN.
OTHERWISE...BKN BANDS OF -SHRA EXPECTED TO STAY W OF N TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. EVEN IF SOME MAKE IT TO KCKB OR KEKN...NOT EXPECTING
ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS FROM THESE.

MORE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF
BOUNDARY ACROSS E OH AND N WV.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SHOWER COVERAGE COULD BE MORE THAN FORECAST
OVERNIGHT TO 12Z TUESDAY...WITH SOME BRIEF 5 MILES VSBY EASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHERN WV.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  TUE 05/05/15
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/30
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...30







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