Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 300243
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1043 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HEAT CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STRONG A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
LATE TONIGHT. MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXCEPT FOR LOW
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1040 PM UPDATE...MADE SOME TWEAKS TO POPS BASED ON NEW NAM COMING
IN. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO LOWER POPS ACROSS TRI-STATE AND SOUTHERN
OHIO AS ALL MODELS SHOW THIS AS A LULL...WITH DEVELOPMENT
HAPPENING ALONG THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. BACKING UP TO THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...SOME DRY
AIR ALOFT WILL CURTAIL CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...WHILE MAINLY SCATTERED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IN THE MORE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. BETWEEN
THESE TWO FACTORS...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT APPROACHING 100 DEGREES TO CONTINUE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR CAUTION.

FOR THE FRONT...EXPECT IT TO REACH THE OHIO RIVER BY 12Z...CKB-CRW
LINE BY 14Z AND THE MOUNTAINS BY 17Z. DESPITE THE LACK OF UPPER
SUPPORT...LOSS OF HEATING...AND WEAKNESS OF THE FRONT...THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS IN THE VERY
JUICY AIRMASS ALONG AND ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WILL GO WITH 30-40 POPS. MODELS INDICATE
MOST OF ANY CONVECTION WILL BE WITH A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WITH
LITTLE ACTIVITY ALONG THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. THUS...WILL TIME
CONVECTION MORE WITH THIS SURFACE TROUGH. MOST OF THE CONVECTION
BY MORNING WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND EXITING EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND DO NOT REALLY EXPECT A WIDESPREAD STRATUS SHIELD
BEHIND THIS FRONT. NOTHING REALLY SHOWING UP AT THIS TIME BEHIND
THE APPROACHING FRONT.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL KEEP MINDS TONIGHT ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...QUITE MUGGY. FOR THURSDAY...TOOK A BLEND OF THE MODELS
WHICH BRINGS MAX TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL...BUT ALSO DRIER AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SIG WX NIL...EXCEPT FOR A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM
CLIMBING BACK TO THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE LOWLANDS IN THE SHORT
TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE AREA...ONLY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEM IS A COLD FRONT SLATED FOR THE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS TO SEE
IF THIS CREEPS IN EARLIER IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAIL...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST...WITH LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. NEAR TERM MODELS TRY TO WEAKEN THIS ACTIVITY AS IT ENTERS
CWA...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. DUE TO THIS...DID
NOT INCLUDE ANY IFR OVERNIGHT...BUT INSTEAD KEPT A MORE GENERAL MVFR
IN SHOWERS WITH VCTS. MAY NEED TO UPDATE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES.
ALSO SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ON FOG FORMATION. WITH PRECIPITATION AND
CLOUDS AROUND...WENT WITH MVFR VALLEY FOG... HOWEVER SHOULD SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE PRECIP DENSER FOG WOULD BE
POSSIBLE.

COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE WEST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AND THROUGH
THE MOUNTAINS BY MID AFTERNOON. HAVE SOME MVFR CIGS IN THE MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MAY VARY. FOG OCCURRENCE DEPENDS ON EXTENT
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AND IF THERE ARE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
LATER TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             THU 07/30/15
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26/DTC
AVIATION...MZ



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