824
FXUS61 KRLX 281823
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
223 PM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and storms through Wednesday. Drying out Thursday into
the weekend. Next chance for precipitation returns late Saturday
night with showers lingering into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1140 AM Tuesday...

Series of shortwaves to affect the area. One this afternoon,
combined with peak heating, will generate showers and storms, mainly
across the north. This will be followed by another series of waves,
one Wednesday morning, followed by another later in the day.
Overall, convection should be scattered in nature, and severe
weather is not anticipated, with storms today not likely to get very
tall due to a mid level cap in place.

As with previous forecast thinking, fog tonight should be rather
limited, but can`t be completely ruled out, particularly in areas
that receive rain today. But overall thinking is any fog that forms
should not be particularly dense in nature with incoming wave.
Cooler Wednesday with increased cloud cover and shower activity.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Tuesday...

Any lingering showers over the northeast mountains dissipate through
Wednesday night with dry conditions expected through Friday night.
Troughing over the east coast will yield temperatures around 5
degrees below normal for this time of the year with a rather dry
airmass making it feel quite pleasant during the afternoons.
Overnight lows will generally be in the mid 40s to lower 50s across
the lower elevations with mid 30s to mid 40s across the higher
elevations. This could yield some patchy frost across the better
protected mountain valleys Friday morning, but otherwise minimal
weather concerns are expected. Ridging translating east into the
Middle Ohio Valley during the day Friday will signal a return to
warmer and more humid conditions for the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 220 PM Tuesday...

Warm moist advection begins in earnest during the day Saturday as
southwesterly flow increases. Precipitable water values increase to
around 1.5 inches by Saturday night. A relatively weak wave emerging
from the southern Rockies Thursday night arriving in the Middle Ohio
Valley Saturday night into Sunday should provide upper level forcing
for ascent and associated increasing H850 winds down low will
provide some level of mass convergence at the nose of a LLJ. Mid-
level lapse rates look marginal at best to support much conditional
instability, but may see some build with daytime heating Sunday
yielding some efficient rain makers.

Forcing departs by Monday leaving the region in a weak flow regime
as humidity lingers. This should yield mainly diurnally driven
convection with slow moving convective cores. Will have to see what
the soils look like when we get there after rain from Saturday night
into Sunday, but some localized hydro issues would appear to be
possible.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 115 PM Tuesday...

Mainly VFR conditions for the TAF period, however, occasional
showers and storms, are expected through about 01Z Wednesday,
with brief MVFR conditions expected. Otherwise, bulk of
precipitation will taper off after 01Z, but localized MVFR fog
is possible in areas that receive rain today, as well as across
parts of the northern mountains tonight. Conditions should
briefly improve after 12Z in any areas where fog is able to
form, however, an additional round of showers and storms will
form again particularly after 09-15Z, with brief MVFR
conditions in vicinity of showers/storms, and areas of MVFR
possible across north central WV where greater chances for
precipitation will exist.

Gusty westerly winds in the teens to lower 20 kts will become
light after 23Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing/extent of showers and storms during
the day may vary from the forecast. Areas of fog overnight may
be more widespread than currently anticipated.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers and storms on Wednesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SL