330
FXUS65 KFGZ 081053
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
353 AM MST Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Although temperatures cool slightly this weekend,
afternoon high temperatures will remain above average. Any
isolated showers and thunderstorms will primarily impact portions
of eastern Arizona Sunday into next week. Hot temperatures
return towards the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A dip in temperatures will provide some relief from
the heat as the upper-level ridge shifts eastward this weekend.
Despite the fall in pressure heights, afternoon high temperatures
will still be a few to 8 degrees above normal today. Models
indicate drier air in northern Arizona today with precipitable
water in the 0.2" to 0.4" range. Little to no precipitation is
expected across the area. Winds will be out of the west-southwest
with breezes around 20 to 25 mph in the afternoon. By Sunday,
temperatures will return to near average with a bit weaker
southwesterly winds. Atmospheric moisture does creep upwards for
eastern Arizona. This will allow for a slight chance (10-25%) of
showers and storms Sunday afternoon, primarily for the White
Mountains. Slight chances linger into next week for eastern Arizona.

Deja vu! A broad area of high pressure will redevelop over western
CONUS next week, driving another warming trend. Additionally, a
low pressure area off the coast of Baja California will bring
southerly flow, aiding in above average temperatures. Wednesday
currently looks to be the hottest day next week with afternoon
highs around 10 degrees above the seasonal norm. By the end of
next week, both the ECMWF and GFS indicate the low near Baja
California lifting to the northeast and moving directly across
Arizona. There is some disagreement between models on the timing
of this system, but the arrival is currently expected sometime
between late Thursday and Friday. This will help support the chance
of rain being more widespread. However, due to the limited moisture,
high-based storms and dry lightning are more likely than wetting
rains. Continue to practice caution and follow fire restrictions
as we pensively wait for the end of fire season and the onset of
the North American Monsoon.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 08/06Z through Sunday 09/06Z...VFR conditions
will persist. Winds light and variable through the night becoming
southwest at 10-20 kts gusting to around 25 kts by Saturday
afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 09/06Z through Tuesday 11/06Z...VFR conditions
are forecast. Isolated thunderstorms mainly Sunday afternoon
across eastern Arizona. Southwest winds 10-20 kts each afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Saturday through Sunday...A slight cooling trend
will take place this weekend, with southwest winds 10 to 20 mph and
gusts as high as 30 mph, each afternoon. Aside from a very slight
chance of high-based showers/thunderstorms near the White Mountains
Sunday, things will be quite dry.

Monday through Wednesday...Dry, warmer temperatures by Tuesday and
Wednesday. Daytime RH values below 15 percent and southwest winds 10
to 20 mph each afternoon.


&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Mazon
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff